UPDATED: Best value bets for UFC Vegas 31


In the main event, I have landed on Makhachev ITD + 150. I handicap the unrelenting forward pressure and striking advantage as too much for the Brazilian in a five-round affair.

Tate -150 vs. Reneau + 130

I like the Tate -125 released on Wednesday (see above). At Tate -150, this fight is correctly lined as I handicap it. If you are late to the cupcake party, you may give

Tate via decision + 150 a roil as the over 2.5 Rds. Is line -295.

Gamrot -210 vs. Stephens + 185

Gamrot is a legit talent in this division and Stephens is moving up because he can no longer make the 145lnb. Weight limit as well he’s lost to all the elite talent in that division. While his aggression and power will translate well early his lack of three round 155lb. cardio and his slight size in the end will land him on his back where the naturally larger wrestler will thrive from top position.

Gamrot -210 leg 1

Two fighter parlay leg two open

Taha -145 vs. Morozov + 125

Each has competed well against top end competition. Taha’s the more explosive man while the more diligent steady grinder is Morozov. In a fight I line as pick-ep I’ll take a half unit on

Morozov + 125

Benitez -165 vs. Quarantillo + 145

Benitez is tough, aggressive and a forward pressing boxer/striker. Q will be the taller, longer fighter with perhaps a more well-rounded fight arsenal. I look for Q to make a fine showing off his loss to Tucker. Look for a tight fight early then Quarantillo to separate himself late in this fight. Half unit on

Quarantillo + 145


In terms of profitable sports gaming, UFC 264 was tainted by unfavorable favorite results as chalk finished 11-1 on the night.

In the main event, favorite Dustin Poirier showed up to do a job, and the way he did it in the first five minutes of the bout made me think Conor McGregor had nothing but a one-trick sodbuster’s shot to beat the larger, more durable athlete. That McGregor broke his left tibia and fibula only expedited what was transpiring in the fight as Poirier was administering a good old-fashioned whuppin’ on McGregor. 

In the co-main event, Gill Burns looked outstanding in his defeat of Stephen Thompson. He did what few others have been able to do in cutting the cage down then forcing Thomson to compete off his back. I had released Thompson as leg one of a parlay and was very confident of the position. Burns earned that victory, and I go back to the task of grinding for improvement.

This week’s UFC Las Vegas 31 is a card for the hardcore because there are very few recognizable names. That said, there are a couple of fascinating matchups that warrant discussion.

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