UFC Vegas 20 Line Moves to Know About

February 27, 2021 02:08 AM

Today, the weekend kicks off with a loaded all-day betting menu filled with 100-plus college basketball games, 7 NBA games, 14 NHL games and, last but not least, UFC Fight Night: Rozenstruik vs Gane. 

For extensive Saturday betting analysis, be sure to join Michael Lombardi, Patrick Meagher, Thomas Gable and myself this morning from 10 a.m.-noon on The Lombardi Line. We'll be dissecting all the big matchups, the top lines moves and breaking down late sharp action across all the major sports.

In the meantime, let's discuss some UFC line movement for tonight's fight card at the Apex in Las Vegas...

Ciryl Gane vs Jairzinho Rozenstruik

This heavyweight showdown is the headliner and main event of the evening. Gane (7-0) is undefeated and opened as a hefty -275 favorite over Rozenstruik (11-1). We've seen some money lean toward the plus money dog, with Gane falling from -275 to -250 and Rozenstruik moving from + 225 to + 210. Both fighters are equal in terms of height (6'3''), but Gane is younger (30 vs. 32) and has a longer reach (81 inches vs. 78). The total is 1.5 rounds and the over has taken in some action, moving from -135 to -220. Rozenstruik's best chance at an upset is a knockout. Of his 11 victories, 91% of them have come via knockout or TKO. On the flip side, Gane's victories have come in different forms: 43% via knockout/TKO, 43% via submission and 14% via decision.

Maxim Grishin vs Dustin Jacoby

This light heavyweight battle is the first fight of the night and kicks off the preliminary card. The line opened with Jacoby (13-5) listed as a -160 favorite against Grishin (31-8-2). We've seen respected money lay the chalk price with Jacoby, driving this line up from -160 to -180. These fighters are equal in height (both 6-2). Grishin has the longer arm reach (78 vs. 76) but Jacoby has the longer leg reach (45 vs. 43.5). The one big advantage for Jacoby is his age. He is 32, compared to Grishin who is 36. Fighters above 35 often pose a red flag. Grishin also missed weight, which is never a good sign. The total for this fight is 2.5 rounds. We've seen some over liability as the over 2.5 has moved from -115 to -125.

Ashley Yoder vs Angela Hill

This women's strawweight showdown is one of the first fights on the main card. Hill (12-9) opened as a substantial -300 favorite and we've seen heavy steam target the favorite, driving Hill up to -370 or -390 depending on the book. The curious nature of this fight is that Yoder (8-6) enjoys several physical advantages. Yoder (+ 300) is younger (33 vs. 36), taller (5-6 vs. 5-3) and has a much longer reach (69.5 vs. 65). However, the line continues to move toward Hill. This might signify that respected money isn't too concerned about the tale of the tape. This fight is also expected to go awhile. The total is 2.5 rounds with heavy over juice (-350 to -380). Nearly 60% of Hill's wins have come via decision, while 50% of Yoder's wins have come via decision.

Jimmie Rivera vs Pedro Munhoz

This bantamweight battle is located on the beginning of the main card. Rivera (23-4) opened as a modest -140 favorite and we've seen the line creep up slightly to -145 or -150 depending on the shop. While Munhoz (18-5) is two inches taller (5-5 vs 5-3), River is younger (31 vs 34) and has a much longer reach (68.5 vs. 65). Pro bettors seem to love this over. The total is 2.5 rounds with heavy over juice (-265 to -290). Historically, fighters below 150-pounds have tended to go over more often (these two are 135 pounds), while heavier fighters tend to go under as one punch or kick could end it quickly. Nearly 75% of Rivera's wins have come via decision.

Alexander Hernandez vs Thiago Moises

This lightweight battle is the last fight on the preliminary card. Hernandez (12-3) opened as a -190 favorite and has been steamed up to -235 thanks to a plethora of support from respected bettors. Hernandez and Moises (14-4) are equal in height (5-8) and weight (155 pounds). Moises is slightly younger (25 vs 28) but Hernandez has a reach advantage (72 vs. 70). The over 2.5 rounds is taking in some action (-170 to -175) as well. Nearly 45% of both fighter's wins have come via decision.

More Saturday moves

Alexis Davis + 200 to + 175 vs Sabina Mazo

Kevin Croom + 190 to + 160 vs Alex Caceres

Mayra Bueno Silva -120 to -130 vs Montana De La Rosa

Magomed Ankalaev-Nikita Krylov Over 1.5 rounds (-125 to -150)

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