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UFC Fight Night card guesswork


Favorites continue to dominate in the UFC, realizing a 39-9-1 record over the last four fight slates. For the year, the chalk is 214-111-11, or 63.6 percent.

Despite the torrid run of favorites, I’ve navigated profit from these last four cards by uncovering advantage no matter whether a favorite or an underdog. Last week Niko Price, who won his bout via decision, was released at -145, but by the time the bell rang for Round 1 he’d closed over -205. We also won the main event Over 1.5 rounds -130. That line actually closed Under 1.5 rounds -130 — what a mispriced offering.

2021 Insight the Octagon is 26-18 + 11.57 units.

This week the UFC assembles a hodgepodge of athletes who need to be active and earn. This talent-challenged Fight Night card in Las Vegas comes on the heels of its marquee UFC 266 production last week. This week’s card will leave many wondering why the UFC could not have offered another pedigreed matchup or two to help complete this event.

Let’s break down the fights, though few of substance are on the card.

Mackenzie Dern (-160) vs. Marina Rodriguez (+ 140)

Women’s strawweight (115 pounds), main event

The sixth-ranked Rodriguez is a long, tall, bad-intentioned striker who is 14-1-2 as a professional and 4-1-2 in the UFC. The native Brazilian is equipped with a firm BJJ base complemented by a pronounced Muay Thai striking arsenal.

Rodriguez’s last four fights really show that she is a devastating striker who uses the leverage of her size and length efficiently. In fact, except for her bout against Cynthia Calvillo, Rodriguez has outstruck every opponent.

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