UFC 257 line moves you should know about

January 23, 2021 01:30 AM

Today we have a loaded slate of 100-plus college basketball games, 7 NBA games and 5 NHL games. For extensive Saturday betting analysis, be sure to join Michael Lombardi, Patrick Meagher, Mike Palm, Thomas Gable and myself from 10 a.m.-noon ET on The Lombardi Line. We'll be dissecting all the big matchups, the top lines moves and breaking down late sharp action across all the major spots.

In the meantime, let's discuss the top line moves for tonight's highly anticipated UFC 257 event, highlighted by the main event bout between Dustin Poirier and Conor McGregor.

Amir Albazi (+ 100 to -115) vs Zhalgas Zhumagulov

This flyweight showdown is the first early preliminary fight of the night. We've seen respected money come down on Albazi (13-1), pushing him from a slight dog to a short favorite. Albazi holds several physical advantages over Zhumagulov (13-4). Albazi is younger (27 vs 32), taller (5-4 vs 5-3) and has a longer reach (68 inches vs 66.5). There is also heavy juice to the over 2.5 rounds (-245).

Movsar Evloev (-425 to -600) vs Nik Lentz

This catchweight bout is also among the early prelims and features one of the biggest favorite moves of the Saturday card. The undefeated Evloev (13-0) opened as a hefty favorite and lopsided action has hammered the chalk, driving him up another 175+  cents. Evloev holds a significant age difference as he is only 26 while Lentz (30-11-2) is 36. Younger fighters with such a massive age advantage have typically been a profitable bet in the UFC. Evloev also holds a distinct reach advantage (72.5 inches vs 68). The over 2.5 round is heavily juiced to -275.

Makhmud Muradov (-130 to -160) vs Andrew Sanchez

This middleweight battle takes place on the main card. We've seen Muradov (24-6) receive steady support, pushing the line 30-cents in his favor. Muradov is 30 while Sanchez (13-5) is 32. Muradov is also one inch taller (6-2 vs 6-1) and has a longer reach (75.5 vs 74). The over 2.5 round is juiced up to -250.

Khalil Rountree Jr (-330 to -350) vs Marcin Prachnio

This light heavyweight bout is the first on the preliminary card. Rountree (9-4) opened as a substantial favorite against Prachnio (13-5) and his price has become slightly more expensive due to action in his favor. Rountree is younger (30 vs 32) and has a longer reach (76.5 inches vs 74). We might also be looking at a shorter fight. The under 1.5 round has moved from -140 to -190. Roughly 70% of Rountree's wins have come by knockout/TKO.

Dan Hooker (-138 to -148) vs Michael Chandler

Outside of Poirier-McGregor, this is the biggest fight of the night. This lightweight co-main event has seen a noticeable 10-cent move to Hooker (20-9). He has several key advantages over Chandler (21-5). Hooker is younger (30 vs 34), much taller (6-foot vs 5-7) and has a longer reach (75 vs 71.5).

Conor McGregor (-250 to -300) vs Dustin Poirier

Finally, the fight we've all been waiting for. This lightweight main event has seen a big 50-cent move toward McGregor (22-4). The tale of the tape is pretty even for both fighters. McGregor and Poirier (26-6) are both 32 and both 5-8. McGregor, however, has a longer reach (74 vs 72). We're also seeing heavy juice to the under 2.5 rounds (-180). Nearly 90% of McGregor's wins have come by way of knockout/TKO, with 20 of his 22 wins coming in either the first or second round. In his last fight, which took place almost exactly a year ago, McGregor finished Donald Cerrone in 40 seconds in the first round. McGregor's nutritionist and coaches say he's in the best shape he's ever been.

More Line Moves

Antonio Carlos Junior (+ 125 to + 100) vs Brad Taveras

Amanda Ribas (-310 to -320) vs Marina Rodriguez

Joanne Calderwood-Jessica Eye Over 2.5 (-340 to -350)

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