UEFA Euro 2020: Best bets for semifinals

By Nigel Seeley  (VSiN.com) 

It has been a fantastic Euro 2020 tournament so far, as we’re down to four nations remaining. Here are my best bets for the semifinal matches: Spain vs. Italy, and England vs. Denmark.

Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook.

WEDNESDAY

England (-137) vs. Denmark (+ 430)

3:00 p.m. ET

The second semifinal on Wednesday is between England and Denmark -- and judging by the books, football is coming home this summer.

England produced a fantastic performance against Ukraine on Saturday night in Rome, and that 4-0 win would’ve sent shockwaves across the tournament.

The manner of England’s win (admittedly against poor opposition) was emphatic and the scary thing for me is that they still have two or three gears to move up into.

The Three Lions had the luxury of resting players with the match secured, and kept their game-changers Jack Grealish and Phil Foden on the bench, so they are totally fresh for the match against Denmark, if called upon.

At the same time that England were resting players and easing to victory in an easy quarterfinal, the Danes were hanging on against the Czech Republic for a narrow 2-1 win.

It has been an emotional tournament for Denmark and that raw emotion following the Christian Eriksen incident in their first match has carried them through (especially in Copenhagen), but in the second half against the Czechs the Danish players looked totally exhausted -- and that is encouraging signs for England supporters.

Wednesday’s match will be played in front of 60,000 fans at Wembley with only 2,000 Danish fans in the stadium, which is obviously a massive advantage for the Three Lions.

I was at the match against Germany and in 31 years of watching sport at the highest level, I have never experienced an atmosphere like it; now with more fans allowed into the stadium, it will be just as raucous an environment, if not more so.

Denmark have started off matches in a very quick, fast tempo and although England haven’t conceded a goal at these championships this is going to be their toughest test by far. For Denmark the big concern is that Harry Kane is back amongst the goals following his brace against Ukraine. I think this match could see some goals scored, but the over 2 goals on the Asian line has moved to 2.25  -- that was going to be a play but at the current line it looks about right.

England are a general -136 to win this match in regular time and despite Denmark beating England 1-0 at Wembley last October, this is a very different meeting.

In that Danish win, England were reduced to 10 men following Harry Maguire’s sending off after just 31 minutes and they also had another red late in the match with Reece James’ departure seeing England end the match with nine players on the pitch. Denmark won thanks to an Eriksen penalty (who won’t feature on Wednesday), so it’s tough to use that match as a guide to this one.

England sides in the past have frozen on the big occasion, but this young team doesn’t have any fear and the majority of them have played in big European finals at an early age, so the magnitude of the match won’t faze them. With the partisan Wembley crowd behind them and a resurgent Kane, I just can’t see how England won’t win this match against a Danish side who looked really leg weary and have to make the long travel back from Baku to London.

TUESDAY

Spain (+ 210) vs. Italy (+ 145)

3:00 p.m. ET

Spain, one of my futures bets at 9-1 before the start of Euro 2020, are one match away from making the final. However, Italy, arguably the most impressive nation at this tournament are standing in their way.

The Italians are the + 150 favorites to get the win in regular time -- and with their display against Belgium (especially in the first half), it’s hard to disagree with those odds.

Roberto Mancini’s Italian team have gone a staggering 32 matches unbeaten -- a national record -- and like previous Italian sides, they are rock solid in defense, conceding just one goal in regular time in their last 12 matches (Romelu Lukaku’s debatable penalty in the quarter-final). Unlike Italian sides before them, though, this set of players are electrifying in attack and have goals from all over the pitch (11 goals scored by seven different players).

The Spanish are crying out for a striker, as all their great possession in their matches isn’t getting the amount of actual goals compared to their expected goals.

Spain have won just once in regular time in their five matches at Euro 2020 with four draws, and I can’t see the + 205 on Spain winning in 90 minutes being a very popular wager.

I want to get with the Italians tomorrow, as I have a feeling that this match is being priced up on European history rather than current form.

The Italians will be without arguably their best player at this tournament in Leonardo Spinazzola, which is a huge blow, but I can’t see the Roma defender’s injury stopping them against a Spanish side that don’t convert their chances nearly as well as the Italians.

The bet for me here is Italy to qualify through to the final which is available at -125 -- a bet which will see us cash if Italy prevail in regular time, extra time or in a penalty shoot-out.

 

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