UEFA Euro 2020: Best bets for quarterfinals

By Nigel Seeley  (VSiN.com) 

The Euro 2020 Championships have reached the quarterfinal stages after what was an incredible set of last 16 games. The first quarterfinal match is tomorrow at 12:00 p.m. ET when Spain take on Switzerland in St. Petersburg.

Here are my best bets for Friday and Saturday’s Euro 2020 quarterfinals.

Note: Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook.

FRIDAY

Spain (-155) vs. Switzerland (+ 480)

12:00 p.m. ET

The Spanish are -155 at DraftKings to win this match in regular time after netting 10 goals in last two matches, and they will be a popular pick.

The problem for Spain bettors is that they may look to score a lot but they also look like conceding plenty, giving up three goals against Croatia in the round-of-16 match. Both teams to score “yes” will also be a popular choice at -120.

I think Spain have enough quality to win this against a Swiss side that pulled off the shock of the tournament when they beat World champions France in a penalty shootout. However, that match had to take a huge amount out of this Swiss team both physically and mentally and it’s going to be very tough ask for manager Vladimir Petkovic to get another shift out of his players so quickly after the France win. I like Spain to win this 3-1, which is available at an attractive 14-1 price.

Play: Spain to win 3-1 at 14-1 odds

Italy (+ 135) vs. Belgium (+ 240)

3:00 p.m. ET

Friday’s other match in Munich on paper looks a classic between Italy and Belgium, but with the Belgians heading into this quarterfinal without injured main men Kevin De Bruyne and Eden Hazard, this might not live up to the hype.

Italy have been a very popular pick to win Euro 2020 and they are + 135 to reach the last four with a win in regular time, which has been a popular pick as well after the injury news coming out of the Belgium camp.

Belgium are + 240 for the win but without KDB and Hazard, I just can’t see how they are going to manage that in regular time. I think that the Belgians will try to keep it very tight defensively and this match could be going the distance.

The draw in 90 minutes has attracted some money and the 21/10 (+ 210) is just holding up and it really wouldn’t surprise to see that happen but I want to bet against goals. Belgium have a reputation of scoring lots of goals and being entertaining, but they will have to change that without their two most creative players. Surprisingly four of their last six matches have cashed under 2.5 goals, and we know how strong the Italians are defensively: They haven’t conceded a goal in regular time in their last 12 matches. I believe under 2.5 goals is the way to go in this massive quarterfinal  at -175 with a little bit of pizza money also on no goal scorer in the match at 7-1.

Play: Under 2.5 goals

 

SATURDAY

Denmark (+ 112) vs. Czech Republic (+ 285)

12:00 p.m. ET

Another match where goals will be hard to come by is in Baku on Saturday when Denmark face the Czech Republic.

Denmark have played their last two matches at a very high tempo and were on the front foot from the first whistle, scoring four goals in back-to-back matches against Russia and Wales (winning 4-1 and 4-0).

I would expect the Danes to continue that high intensity again against the Czechs. However, despite a 2-0 win over the Netherlands, I am not convinced by Denmark at these championships.

The Czechs are 3-1 underdogs for the match, and I haven’t been impressed with them either. They have a 2-0 win against Scotland in the group opener where they were clearly second best and offered nothing against England in a routine 1-0 win for the Three Lions.

The Danes are + 110 to win this in regular time, and if the match was being played in Copenhagen that would be a wager that I’d like. I do feel that the Danes have enough quality, but they have some injury concerns and that is putting me off taking the current price.

This is an unexpected semifinal opportunity for both of these nations, and I am expecting a close and nervy match.

Every one of the Czech team’s matches at Euro 2020 have cashed on under 2.5 goals and with the temperatures in Baku expected to be around 90 degrees at kickoff on Saturday, I like the under 2.5 goals again. However, at -175 it’s not a price that I would like to suggest, so instead I am happier to take under two goals at 109 on the Asian goal markets, with the bet a push if there are exactly two goals scored.

Play: Under 2.5 goals (or under two goals at + 109 on Asian goal markets)

England (-235) vs. Ukraine (+ 800)

3:00 p.m. ET

The final quarterfinal sees an expectant England travel to Rome to face Ukraine.

Following England’s 2-0 win over arch-nemesis Germany at Wembley on Tuesday night, the Three Lions have been installed at the new + 187 favorites to win Euro 2020.

Before we get carried away about England’s chances of lifting their first major trophy since 1966, they have a match to win here against the Ukraine and I am not at all surprised to see them installed as a very warm -250 favorite to win in 90 minutes.

Everything has landed on England’s feet after the Germany win, as straight after that success Ukraine were involved in a brutal, long extra-time victory over Sweden. With the quick turnaround of matches now in the knockout stages, it will be a very tough ask to get anything from this side.

Ukraine have shown their talent in patches in this tournament, but their performance against Austria in their last group match was a poor one and I don’t think that England has anything to fear here.

The English have yet to show their full potential at these championships -- which is a scary thought -- but what has impressed me most is the form of their defense and goalkeeper Jordan Pickford.

England have yet to concede in their four matches at Euro 2020, and with Harry Maguire residing at the heart of the defense they look a lot stronger. I can’t see them conceding in Rome on Saturday either, so instead of taking England at -250 I much prefer the + 105 on England win-to-nil; if that isn’t a market offered to you, I can see the Three Lions edging this 2-0 at 5-1.

Play: England win-to-nil at + 105

 

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