After my last two horse racing pieces here at VSiN resulted in two $30 winners and several exactas in the Breeders' Cup and the winner/extra/trifecta in last Saturday's Fountain of Youth, Ron Flatter asked if I would contribute weekly picks on the ponies.
Now, I don't win like this all the time (especially not with my penchant for longshots as the chalk does win sometimes), but I agreed with the understanding that I wouldn't post every week and only when I truly feel I have an overlay to share.
We have three Derby prep races Saturday, plus the Big Cap at Santa Anita. I'm just going to list the horses I like here with the types of bets I'm looking to play; for more on the reasoning behind the horses I like, you'll have to listen to Ron Flatter's Podcast (though you can fast-forward to my second segment).
Tampa Bay Derby
Tampa Race #6, estimated post time: 5:20 p.m. ET/2:20 p.m. PT
Value win bet: The horse I give the best chance to win is #9 Untamed Domain, but 6-1 is too short for me (if I was a fisherman, these are the ones I'd throw back), though it might be OK for you. I'll only bet him to win if he drifts up to 10-1. Actually, the only win bet I'll probably make is on #1 Arazi Like Move as a flier at 50-1.
Exotic box (exactas, trifectas, supers, as well as possible vertical wagers): 1-2-5-9, that's three closers I like with favored Flameaway.
San Felipe Stakes
Santa Anita Race #6, estimated post time: 5:30 pm. ET/2:30 p.m. PT
Value win bet: #2 Lombo at 8-1
Exotic box: Probably passing here as it looks pretty chalky with Bolt d'Oro and McKinzie unless Lombo steals it.
Aqueduct Race #10, estimated post time: 5:42 p.m. ET/2:42 p.m. PT
Value win bet: #7 Old Time Revival to wire the field at 15-1; could also bet #3 Beautiful Shot to win but only if drifts up to 10-1.
Exotic box: 3-5-7, not going too crazy with this race either.
Santa Anita Handicap
Santa Anita Race #10, estimated post time: 7:30 p.m. ET/4:30 p.m. PT
Value win bet: None
Exotic box: 5-6-7-8 (very chalky and I doubt I'll even play it; only listing it because Ron Flatter and I discussed this on the podcast; if this was the featured race on a different weekend, I would have passed).
Follow Dave at @Viewfromvegas. Shirt available at vsin.com/store.