Tuley's Thoroughbred Takes for weekend of Oct. 31-Nov. 1

By Dave Tuley  (VSiN.com senior reporter) 

October 31, 2020 01:40 AM

As we continue to move toward the Breeders’ Cup next Friday and Saturday, our crew continues to look for value at tracks from coast to coast.


Team Tuley has been hot as Duane Colucci had the $10.20 winner in Belmont’s 6th race last Saturday and then I followed that up with the $12.40 winner in Belmont’s 7th race and a $17 place horse in Laurel’s 10th race. Again, hopefully this is a sign of good things to come leading up to the Breeders’ Cup.


Yesterday, Ed Sehon joined the fun with a $17.80 winner in Belmont’s Race 6. We didn’t have any other winners (though Sehon did go 3-for-4 in the Late Pick 4 at Belmont, missing the biggest winner in the sequence that led to the $.50 Pick 4 paying $285.75) and we’re not claiming that Colucci gave out the $104.25 exacta in Belmont’s 8th race, but IF you had boxed his four horses for $12 instead of just keying his top horse on top, you would have hit it. Anyway, it just shows how well the group has been handicapping lately.


On Sunday, John Lauro already had posted a spot play, but Sehon and I have added two plays apiece (plus Sehon has a Pick 3 at Belmont that also includes picks from me and Lauro).


Good luck today (and every day!).



Belmont Race No. 4 (1:45 p.m. ET/10:45 p.m. PT)

Ed Sehon likes #4 All Over the Map (12-1 morning line). “Every now and then a horse just leaps off the past performances practically shouting, ‘pick me, please pick me.’ This 4-year-old daughter of Liam’s Map is just such a filly. Dropping in class, moving back to dirt and enticing top rider Joel Rosario for a return engagement, crafty conditioner Ray Handal maps a course to victory for her on closing day at Big Sandy. Wager: Win & Place.”


Belmont Race No. 6 (2:50 p.m. ET/11:50 a.m. PT)

Ed Sehon likes #9 One Eyed Jack (6-1 morning line). “Is trainer Todd Pletcher giving up on gelded $675,000 son of Uncle Mo by dropping him into $30,000 claiming company? Or, by switching him to the turf, is leading conditioner finally entering him where he can win again? I vote for the latter. Look for hot jock Irad Ortiz Jr. to be on or near the lead before out-kicking others in stretch. Wager: Win & Pace. Bonus Bet: Pick 3 of 4,9/5,6/8,10.”


Belmont Race No. 7 (3:25 p.m. ET/12:25 p.m. PT)

Dave Tuley likes #6 Never Enough Time (3-1 morning line) in the $80,000 Pumpkin Pie Stakes. Never Enough Time should be the speed of the speed and jockey Luis Saez should be able to control the race and go wire to wire. Wager: Win.


Belmont Race No. 8 (3:55 p.m. ET/12:55 p.m. PT)

John Lauro likes #8 Fluffy Socks (6-1 morning line) in the $80,000 Chelsey Flower Stakes. “Fluffy Socks won nicely in the prep for this in the Selima Stakes at Pimlico. This Chad Brown filly has a bright future. Strong Win bet.”


Del Mar Race No. 8 (7 p.m. ET/4 p.m. PT)

Dave Tuley likes #4 Rookie Mistake (12-1 morning line) in the $75,000 Let It Ride Stakes. This 1-mile turf test should set up for a closer and this 3-year-old colt has turned into a consistent one for trainer Doug O’Neill and jockey Mario Gutierrez (the combo that brought us Kentucky Derby winners I’ll Have Another and Nyquist. They’re just 1-for-4 the past two months, but that still looks like value to me at anything around 12-1. Wager: Win & Place.


Prior day’s picks:


Belmont Race No. 6 (3:22 p.m. ET/12:22 p.m. PT)

Ed Sehon likes #6 Luck Money (8-1 morning line). “Ultra-consistent (9 for 9 in the money) 3-year-old daughter of Lookin’ At Lucky stretches out to 12 furlongs in the $80,000 Zamora turf marathon for the ladies. Outstanding jockey Javier Castellano returns to ride for conditioner Arnaud Delacour in initial Belmont outing. Repeating Beyer Speed figure of 91 earned under Castellano in Kentucky Downs stakes vs. super-tough two back at 29-1 puts her in the money once again. Wager: Win, Place & Show.”


Duane Colucci likes #5 Olympic Games (5-1 morning line). “This Cristophe Clement runner has a solid work tab after a small rest, last seen in August. Clement is having a fabulous year and top jockey Irad Ortiz Jr. (250 wins) retains the mount, distance will not be a problem. Clement and Ortiz have teamed up for a 20% win rate over a year sample and must beat his barnmate. Bet Win and key 5 over 1, 2 & 8 in exactas and trifectas and reverse.”


Belmont Race No. 7 (3:55 p.m. ET/12:55 p.m. PT)

Ed Sehon likes the following $0.50 Pick 4 (cost $72)

R7 - 3, 4, 7, 9

R8 - 3, 7, 12

R9 - ALL

R10 - 9, 14, 15


Belmont Race No. 8 (4:27 p.m. ET/1:27 p.m. PT)

Dave Tuley likes #5 Kidnapped (10-1 morning line) in the $80,000 Awad Stakes. This stakes for 2-year-olds doesn’t have as much speed as I was expecting and I believe Kidnapped can steal it on the lead. This gelding went to the lead in his first two career starts -- getting beat by a neck in his debut before winning easily -- and then was fractious at the gate in his stakes debut and broke last. He wasn’t able to run his race, yet still rallied to finish third by just over a length. I’m counting on him to get a better start and go gate to wire. Wager: Win & Place.


Duane Colucci likes #9 Heat of the Night (10-1 morning line). “After a solid maiden win at Gulfstream, Timothy Hamm shipped this gelding north of the border and he ran well in a Grade 1. He broke slowly and was moving late. Although a small sample size, Hamm and jockey Junior Alvarado have a $16.47 ROI when teaming up. Bet Win and key 9 over 3, 8 & 12 in exactas and trifectas and reverse.” 


Churchill Downs Race No. 9 (5:06 p.m. ET/2:06 p.m. PT)

Ed Sehon likes #9 Endorsed (3-1 morning line). “Hot jock Corey Lanerie (five winners on Thursday & Friday) picks up mount on classy son of Medaglia d’Oro for Hall of Fame trainer Bill Mott, who ships colt in from New York for Churchill Downs debut. He gets a ton of class relief after leg-weary, dull effort against superior crew in Grade 2 Kelso Stakes four weeks ago. Before leaving Belmont, he posted four-furlong 1/96 bullet work. Two-turn mile-and-a-sixteenth perfect fit for stalking style. Wager: Win & box the 9 in exactas with 2, 10 & 11.”


Del Mar Race No. 5 (5:30 p.m. ET/2:30 p.m. PT)

Duane Colucci likes #7 Avenue de France (7-2 morning line). “Leonard Powell filly ran very well over this course in August and now has her third race off a layoff and a solid :48 workout. Powell hits at 28% in claiming races with a $3.33 ROI. Bet Win and key 7 over 1, 5 & 6 in exactas and trifectas and reverse.”


Del Mar Race No. 7 (6:30 p.m. ET/3:30 p.m. PT)

Dave Tuley likes #5 Muchly (5-1 morning line) in the $75,000 Kathryn Crosby Stakes. This ungraded stakes draws a field whose participants have mostly been contesting in optional claiming races. Some have some minor stakes experience with the classiest filly probably being #7 Qahira, who ran second in a Grade 3 last time out for the Bob Baffert barn. Still, there’s no world-beaters here and I’m on #5 Muchly, who fits right with these. Muchly finished second in a similar spot last race but gets the services back of top turf jock (25% on the year from 332 turf mounts) Umberto Rispoli, who is also 2-for-5 when riding for trainer Simon Callaghan. Wager: Win on 5 and let’s try to turn an exacta into a trifecta by betting a $1 trifecta wheel on 5,7 with 5/7 with ALL (costs $12).


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