Tuley's Thoroughbred Takes for weekend of Oct. 24-25

By Dave Tuley  (VSiN.com senior reporter) 

October 24, 2020 12:54 AM
tuley_long_shots

As we continue to move toward the Breeders’ Cup in three weeks, our crew continues to look for value at tracks from coast to coast.

Well, Ed Sehon is actually taking the weekend off, but Duane Colucci and I both have two plays apiece in Saturday stakes race (Colucci adds the Late Pick 4 at Belmont -- as he says, “NY Statebred Day...I love it!”), plus we have a bonus play from John Lauro on Sunday.

Good luck today (and every day!).

 

SATURDAY

Belmont Race No. 6 (2:53 p.m. ET/11:53 a.m. PT)

Duane Colucci likes #6 Lucky Move (3-1 morning line) in the $175,000 Empire Distaff Handicap. “This open company mare trained by Juan Carlos Guerrero tries the Belmont surface for the first time and gets the incredibly hot Irad Ortiz Jr. (25% at Belmont) in the saddle. Ran great in the Ladies Handicap at Aqueduct last year and respectable at Delaware and Monmouth versus much better this year. Bet Win and key 6 over 2 & 5 in exactas, trifectas and reverse.”

 

Belmont Race No. 7 (3:26 p.m. ET/12:26 p.m. PT)

Dave Tuley likes #1 Tribeca (8-1 morning line) in the $125,000 Hudson Handicap. There’s a ton of speed in this 6 1/2-furlong sprint and I usually don’t like choosing between a bunch of horses with the same running style -- I much prefer when I find the lone speed in a race to steal it -- but Tribecca leaps out of the gate and could be the speed of the speed under jockey Kendrick Carmouche. The rail has been hitting at 25% in these dirt sprints at the meet, so at least 8-1 is an overlay in those terms. Wager: Win & Place. 

 

Belmont Race No. 8 (3:59 p.m. ET/12:59 p.m. PT)

Duane Colucci likes #3 Dot Matrix (9-2 morning line) in the $150,000 Mohawk Stakes. “Brad Cox trained gelding had several good runs in open company before closing in the statebred West Point, just falling short for the second year in a row. Monster work on Oct. 10 around the dogs in :47 flat shows fitness. Jockey Jose Lezcano has 63 top 3 finishes out of 133 mounts this meet. Bet Win and key 3 over 5, 6 & 8 in exactas, trifectas and reverse.”

 

Belmont Race No. 8 (3:59 p.m. ET/12:59 p.m. PT)

Duane Colucci also likes the following $.50 Pick 4 (cost $60):

Race 8: 3, 5, 6, 8

Race 9: 1, 2, 3, 7, 10

Race 10: 2, 3, 7

Race 11: 6, 12

 

Laurel Race No. 10 (4:20 p.m. ET/1:20 p.m. PT)

Dave Tuley likes #2 Baptize the Boy (15-1 morning line) in the $100,000 Maryland Million Sprint Handicap. Baptize the Boy is the most consistent speed horse in this 6-furlong sprint, though he is stepping up in class. However, Claudio Gonzalez is a high-percentage trainer (22% overall in 2020, 23% with shippers like this and 17% in nongraded stakes like this, so he’s very good at placing his horses. Jockey Alexander Crispin is also 26% with early speed types like this, so I really feel we’re getting a fair price. Wager: Win & Place. 

 

SUNDAY

Santa Anita Race No. 9 (7 p.m. ET/4 p.m. PT)

John Lauro likes #3 Raymundos Secret (9-5 morning line) in the Grade 2 Goldikova Stakes. “This is the best race I could find this weekend. It is a strong Win bet on Raymundos Secret and box in exactas with #6 Silberpfeil (8-1), an import from Italy.”

 

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