Tuley's Thoroughbred Takes for Saturday, Oct. 17

By Dave Tuley  (VSiN.com senior reporter) 

October 17, 2020 11:25 AM

As we continue to move toward the Breeders’ Cup in three weeks, our crew continues to look for value at tracks from coast to coast.

This Saturday, we have an interesting mix with Duane Colucci having a spot play at Belmont, John Lauro having a spot play at Keeneland, Ed Sehon adding to the Keeneland action with an exacta box and then the Late Pick 4, and I wrap it up with a late play in the Santa Anita feature.

Good luck today (and every day!).

 

SATURDAY

Keeneland Race No. 5 (3:18 p.m. ET/12:18 p.m. PT)

Ed Sehon likes the four-horse $1 exacta box of 6, 7, 9 & 12. “For those willing to invest $12, here’s a real chance to build your Breeders’ Cup bankroll. In numerical order, #6 Siamese (6-1 morning line) adds blinkers for second U.S. start ... Sharp trainer Michael Stidman expects improved effort from #7 I Hear You (6-1) ... Top Kentucky rider Forest Geroux seeking repeat win on #9 More Than Unusual (5-1) ... Leading young jockey Tyler Gaffalione reunites with super conditioner Chad Brown on favorite #12 Great Island (2-1), looking for second straight victory.

 

Keeneland Race No. 7 (4:24 p.m. ET/1:24 p.m. PT)

Ed Sehon likes the following $0.50 Pick 4 (cost $60)

Race 7 - 3, 5, 8, 10, 11

Race 8 - 2, 4, 9, 10

Race 9 - 2, 5, 10

Race 10 - 2, 9

 

Belmont Race No. 9 (4:47 p.m. ET/1:47 p.m. PT)

Duane Colucci likes #8 Lead Guitar (7-2 morning line) in the $80,000 Floral Park Stakes. “Speed ball crushed last time in a super quick 1:07 3/5 vs. opening company. She’s now on a two-race win streak with the ultra-hot Luis Saez in the saddle. Saez and trainer George Weaver are hitting at an amazing 25% with a $3.93 ROI. This filly should control the pace in this listed stakes race. Bet 8 to Win and key 8 over 2, 5 & 9 in exacta, trifectas and reverse.”

 

Keeneland Race No. 9 (5:30 p.m. ET/2:30 p.m. PT)

John Lauro likes #5 Venetian Harbor (7-5 morning line) in the Grade 2 Lexus Raven Run Stakes. “Venetian Harbor gets class relief in this Grade 2 prep for her showdown with Gamine in the Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Sprint in three weeks.”

 

Santa Anita Race No. 9 (8:15 p.m. ET/5:15 p.m. PT)

Dave Tuley likes #1 Mind Out (8-1 morning line) in the Grade 3 Autumn Miss Stakes. #5 Warren’s Showtime (9-5) is the clear class of the race and most likely winner. However, deep closers are winning 32% of these mile turf routes at Santa Anita, so if we’re looking for a price play we land on Mind Out, who is taking a step up in class, but trainer Simon Callaghan is 2-for-7 at the meet and hitting on 19% in graded stakes on the year, so I’m trusting he has Mind Out placed appropriately. Wager: Win & Place.

 

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