As we continue to move toward the Breeders’ Cup in four weeks, our crew continues to look for value at tracks from coast to coast.
This Saturday, I have two price plays in stakes races at Belmont and Keeneland while Ed Sehon gives his different takes on those same races, plus adds a Pick 4 at Keeneland (note: in Race 7, #12 was scratched to reduce the ticket, and Sehon subbed #5 for the scratched #8 in Race 8). Duane Colucci also added a pick after scratches so plenty of opinions to mix & match on Saturday’s big races.
Good luck today (and every day!).
Belmont Race No. 8 (4:14 p.m. ET/1:14 p.m. PT)
Dave Tuley likes #5 Beau Belle (12-1 morning line) in the Grade 1 Flower Bowl. There’s no real speed horse in this 1 1/4-mile turf race and Beau Belle has a great chance to inherit the lead and steal this on the front end. She is used to being raced at even longer distances, so the shorter distance could help her find the winner’s circle.
Ed Sehon likes trainer Chad Brown trio in Grade 1 Flower Bowl. “If one of Brown’s three accomplished entries wins today, they might as well rename the race after the nation's top conditioner. Having taken home the Bowl in six previous renewals, I see no reason why his super-deep stable won’t capture another today. In lieu of my picking a winner from among #1 Cambier Park (5-2 morning line), #2 My Sister Nat (3-1) and #6 Nay Lady Nay (7-2), I’ll go for a blanket photo finish featuring all three. Wager: Exacta box of 1-2-6.”
Keeneland Race No. 7 (4:24 p.m. ET/1:24 p.m. PT)
Ed Sehon likes the following $0.50 Pick 4 (cost $48)
Race 7: 2, 4, 6, 8 (#previously posted #12 scratched)
Race 8: 4, 5, 6, 10 (#5 subbed for scratched #8
Race 9: 1, 7
Race 10: 3, 5, 6
Keeneland Race No. 9 (5:30 p.m. ET/2:30 p.m. PT)
Ed Sehon likes #1 Harvey’s Lil Goil (3-1 morning line). “Classy 3-year-old filly, seeking win-and-you’re-in spot on Breeders’ Cup card in four weeks, has the proven tactical speed necessary to prevail in Grade 1 Queen Elizabeth II Challenge Cup Stakes. Seasoned West Coast rider Matt Garcia returns for top trainer Bill Mott. Race has an abundance of speed which sets the table for my lil goil in stretch. Wager: Win.”
Dave Tuley likes #8 California Kook (12-1 morning line). I agree with my colleague that there’s plenty of speed in the QEII, but I think we need a deeper closer and California Kook invades from the West Coast to fill the bill with Tyler Gaffalione riding for noted turf trainer Peter Miller. Wager: Win & Place (and box with Mr. Sehon’s #1 Harvey’s Lil Goil & #7 Micheline from his Pick 4 for a TTT exacta box).
Duane Colucci likes #6 Hendy Woods (10-1). “This Mark Casse filly seems to be improving and has three steady workouts for this Grade 1 step up, hoping for a speed duel inside to set up her closing kick. Ragozin numbers are right there and the price will be good, so bet 6 to Win and key 6 over 1, 2 & 4 in exactas and trifectas and reverse.”