Team Tuley has been looking for value at tracks from coast to coast, but on Saturday we’re devoting all our attention to the Pegasus card at Gulfstream.
I have three plays late in the card, including the Pegasus Invitational in the Race 12 finale, where I’m going head-to-head with Rampart race & sports books manager Duane Colucci (we like a lot of the same horses, but are both using a different horse on top). Colucci also offers his take on the all-stakes Late Pick 4 at Gulfstream, where he’s also squaring off against Ed Sehon, who was our big winner last week when the three horses he picked in the Lecomte Stakes (Midnight Bourbon, Proxy and Mandaloun) not only completed the $66 exacta but also constituted the $1 trifecta for $98.
Gulfstream’s first post is at 11:40 a.m. ET/8;40 a.m. PT, so we’re posting all our plays overnight. We’ll update if there are any early scratches that affect our selections.
Good luck today (and every day)!
Gulfstream Race No. 4 (1:05 p.m. ET/10:05 a.m. PT)
Ed Sehon likes #7 Haikal (9-2 morning line) in Grade 3 Fred W. Hooper Stakes. “While #1 Performer (7-5) figures to heavily bet, I’ll try to beat him with late-developing 5-year-old son of Daaher in this one-turn mile. Making only his second start for top trainer Todd Pletcher, Haikal has posted a series of solid works in the morning at Palm Beach Downs in preparation for strong closing effort as he stretches out. Luis Saez retains mount. Wager: Win & box in exactas with 1,5 & 6.”
Gulfstream Race No. 7 (2:38 p.m. ET/11:38 a.m. PT)
Ed Sehon likes #8 Tuned (8-1 morning line) in the Grade 3 Mashua’s River Stakes. “With an abundance of speed signed on for this mile turf test for fillies and mares, race sets up for my gal’s closing kick. Super-smart conditioner Graham Motion retains nation’s No. 1 rider, Irad Ortiz Jr. Stay Tuned to cash valued-packed ticket. Wager: Win & Place.”
Gulfstream Race No. 8 (3:09 p.m. ET/12:09 p.m. PT)
Dave Tuley likes #11 Traipsing (4-1 morning line) in the Grade 3 Le Prevoyante Stakes. This is 1 1/2 miles, so everyone is looking for a late-runner who can go the distance. Instead, I’m looking at Traipsing, who should be the lone speed, to steal this at 4-1. This 5-year-old mare has a great chance to wire the field, certainly better than 1 in 5 as there’s no one to push her, so Joel Rosario should be able to set a comfortable pace and leave her with something left in the stretch. Now, naysayers will point out she hasn’t carried her speed this far before, but I’ll counter by saying more than half this field has never run a 1 1/2-mile race before and none have ever won at the distance. So, I’ll take the front-runner and make them run us down. Wager: Win & Place.”
Gulfstream Races Nos. 9-12 (3:40 p.m. ET/12:40 p.m. PT)
Ed Sehon likes the following $0.50 Pick 4 (cost $72)
Race 9: 2,4,7
Race 10: 5,7,11
Race 11: 5,8,9,11
Race 12: 2,4,5,10
Duane Colucci likes the following $0.50 Pick 4 (cost $45)
Race 9: 1,2,3,4,7
Race 10: 1,5,7
Race 11: 4,8,9
Race 12: 4,6
Gulfstream Race No. 10 (4:13 p.m. ET/1:13 p.m. PT)
Dave Tuley likes #7 Tide of the Sea (10-1 morning line) in the Grade 3 W.L. McKnight Stakes. This is another 1 1/2-mile turf race like Race No. 8 and I like another lone speed horse at a fair price. Now, this one has wired a field at this distance, though it was against cheaper competition in allowance company. Michael Maker is a great turf trainer, so I trust that he believes this 5-year-old isn’t overmatched in this spot. I also like the fact that Ed Sehon and Duane Colucci used this speedster in their Pick 4s just in case. Wager: Win & Place.
Gulfstream Race No. 11 (4:59 p.m. ET/1:59 p.m. PT)
Duane Colucci likes #8 Anothertwistafate (5-1 morning line) in the Grade 1 Pegasus World Cup Turf Invitational Stakes. “This Peter Miller new acquisition has been solid since Miller took him over with a fourth and recently a monster win in the San Gabriel. A repeat of that performance wins this. Joel Rosario seems to be the perfect fit here. Also look back at his poly/tapeta races, which he dominated. I feel this surface is similar to turf and the recipe for a victory. Bet 8 to Win and key 8 over 2,4,9 & 11 in trifectas and superfectas and small reverse [putting 8 in second spot].”
Gulfstream Race No. 12 (5:44 p.m. ET/2:44 p.m. PT)
Duane Colucci likes #6 Kiss Today Goodbye (10-1 morning line) in the Grade 1 Pegasus World Cup Invitational Stakes. “Love this Kruljac horse’s last race, a monster victory in the San Antonio. Earlier in the year, he battled with the West Coast’s best 3-year-olds in the Shared Belief and has improved each and every start since. Mike Smith travelling across the country for this opportunity is another plus. Owner/trainer combo is also very solid on the SoCal circuit. Bet 6 to Win and key 6 over 2,4 & 10 in exactas and trifectas and reverse.”
Dave Tuley likes #1 Sleepy Eyes Todd (8-1 morning line) in the Grade 1 Pegasus World Cup Invitational Stakes. All eyes are on #4 Knicks Go, the 5-2 morning-line favorite and expected front-runner, but I feel the field could be sleeping on Sleepy Eyes Todd. Trainer Miguel Silva doesn’t get as many stakes horses as other trainers -- in fact, Sleepy Eyes Todd is his lone graded stakes winner -- but they’ve hit at a good percentage (29%) and have been aiming for this spot for a long time. Silva says he’ll have Jose Ortiz keep Sleepy Eyes Todd off the pace, but I think they can win from there or on the lead if Knicks Go doesn’t fire. Either way, we see value at anything around 8-1. Wager: Win & Place (and also looking to play in exotics with Colucci’s horses, the 2,4,6 & 10).