Tuley's Thoroughbred Takes for May 14-15 (including Preakness)

By Dave Tuley  (VSiN.com senior reporter) 

May 14, 2021 01:25 PM

Team Tuley continues to look for value from coast to coast, with the focus this weekend on Pimlico Race Course in Baltimore, Md.

On Friday, my buddy Ed Sehon started us off with Spice is Nice, a 2-1 winner in Pimlico’s 8th race and Rampart race & sports book manager Duane Colucci finished off the card with Army Wife, the 9-2 winner in the Black-Eyed Susan. We came up empty in between, but we’re now set for Saturday’s Preakness card.

John Lauro joins us with the Daily Double leading into the Preakness while Sehon and I have spot plays throughout the card. Colucci also added a pair of Pick 4 tickets (Belmont in addition to Pimlico) on Saturday morning after early scratches.

Good luck today (and every day).


Pimlico Race No. 7 (2:07 p.m. ET/11:07 a.m. PT)

Ed Sehon likes a three-horse exacta box (after scratch of #2 Burning Bright) with #4 Oxide (10-1), winner 3 of last 5; #5 McElmore Avenue (4-1), on top of his game; #9 Hanalei’s Houdini (9-2), capable of pulling win out of his hat. Wager: exacta box of 4,5 & 9. Special Daily Double: 4,5,9 w/ 8.”


Pimlico Race No. 8 (2:45 p.m. ET/11:45 a.m. PT)

Ed Sehon likes #8 TD Dance (7-2 morning line). “Steadily improving sophomore son of Can the Man cranked for best effort in tough turf mile. He gets big rider upgrade as Castellano climbs aboard for top trainer Brad Cox. Look for me in the End Zone doing the Ickey Shuffle. Wager Win & Place.”


Pimlico Races No. 10-13 (4:05 p.m. ET/1:05 p.m. PT)

Ed Sehon likes the following $0.50 Pick 4 (cost $54)

Race 10: 1,4,13

Race 11: 1,2,4,5,6,8

Race 12: 1,5

Race 13: 3,4,5


Duane likes the following $0.50 Pick 4 (cost $75)

Race 10: 1,4,5,11,13

Race 11: 1,2,5,8,11

Race 12: 3,5

Race 13: 5,9,10


Pimlico Race No. 11 (4:41 p.m. ET/1:41 p.m. PT)

Dave Tuley likes #10 Lebda (12-1 morning line) in the Grade 3 Maryland Sprint Match Series Stakes. “There’s plenty of speed in this six-furlong race, but Ledba could be the speed of the speed and take this gate to wire. I also like his back class and trainer Claudio Gonzalez hits at 35% with jockey J.D. Acosta the past two months, plus they’re 2-for-6 the past two weeks with two seconds, so he puts him on a lot of his live horses. Bet 10 to Win (and place if 10-1 or higher), but I also fear #5 Strike Power (7-2) & #7 Breezy Gust, so let’s box them in exactas and wheel on top in trifectas.”

Belmont Races No. 8-11 (4:50 p.m. ET/1:50 p.m. PT)

Duane Colucci likes the following $0.50 Pick 4 (cost $100)

Race 8: 2,4,6,7,11

Race 9: 2,3,4,5,7

Race 10: 6,9,10,11

Race 11: 4,9


Pimlico Race No. 12 (5:38 p.m. ET/2:38 p.m. PT)

John Lauro likes the Daily Double starting in the 12th race with #5 Sacred Life (7-5 morning line) to #3 Medina Spirit (9-5) in the 13th race, the Preakness: “They hold class and pace edges over both stakes races. Onto the Belmont with Medina Spirit for another Triple Crown” (for trainer Bob Baffert).

Pimlico Race No. 13 (6:47 p.m. ET/3:47 p.m. PT)

Dave Tuley likes #9 Risk Taking (15-1 morning line) in the Grade 1 Preakness. “This Chad Brown-trained colt is flying under the radar and is the best betting value on the board. He bobbled at the start of the Wood Memorial at Aqueduct as the favorite and failed to rally, but a return to his prior form puts him right in the mix as he should be able to sit off the pace and be running fastest down the stretch for the upset. I also like #10 Concert Tour (actually liked him in the Kentucky Derby as I had part of a future ticket at 125-1, but that’s another story). He was Bob Baffert’s best horse in his barn before finishing third in the Arkansas Derby and his owners deciding to pass on the Derby for this spot. I regard him as having the best chance to win the race (though not the best betting value as that’s Risk Taking. #5 Midnight Bourbon is also a big threat off his troubled trip in the Derby, so a good start puts him right in the mix. Bet 9 to Win & Place and box the 5,9 & 10 in exactas and use on top in other exotics.”


Duane Colucci likes #5 Midnight Bourbon (5-1 morning line). “After finishing sixth in the Derby, this Steve Asmussen-trained colt returns with new rider Irad Ortiz Jr. This colt should get a better trip than the debacle at Churchill, sitting closer with good position. Workouts are steady and keep in mind an entrant from the Derby has won the Preakness 75% of the time. Watch the board as he may be over bet (too short a price for a Win wager). As of now, betting Win and key 5 over 9 & 10 in exactas and reverse. Key 5 over 3,4,6,9 & 10 and reverse.”


Ed Sehon breaks down the Preakness this way:

WIN: #5 Midnight Bourbon (6-1), excellent connections.

PLACE: #3 Medina Spirit (9-5), no Triple Crown this year.

SHOW: #4 Crowded Trade (10-1), in Chad we trust.

LONGSHOT: #6 ROMBAUER (12-1), red hot jock picks up mount.



Pimlico Race No. 8

Ed Sehon liked #3 Spice Is Nice (7-2 morning line, went off as 2-1 second choice)...sat right off pacesetter for opening half-mile of 1 1/8-mile race...too over lead, gave it up in stretch but re-raliied to win by 1 1/ 2 lengths, paying $6.60 to Win.


Pimlico Races No. 10-13

Duane Colucci liked the following Pick 4 (cost $80, hit 3-of-4)

Race 10: 1,2,5,8,9

Race 11: 1,4,6,10

Race 12: 1,2,4,11

Race 13: 1,10


Pimlico Race No. 11

Ed Sehon liked #5 Bubbles on Ice (7-2 morning line, went off as 8-5 favorite)...raced mid-pack for opening half-mile of mile turf race...was only able to pass tiring horses and finished 7th of 11.


Pimlico Race No. 13

Duane Colucci liked #1 Army Wife (8-1 morning line, went off 9-2)...raced toward back of pack for opening half-mile, rallied under Joel Rosario, took lead at the eighth pole and pulled away to win by 2 3/ 4 lengths, paying $11 to Win.


Dave Tuley liked #4 Forever Boss (15-1 morning line, closed 18-1)...trailed field early and went six-wide on the far turn...gradually rallied and got up to finish 4th of 10.


Ed Sehon liked the 2-5-9-10 in the Black-Eyed Susan-Preakness Double (with #3 Medina Spirit & #5 Midnight Bourbon in the Preakness...#2 Willful Woman (12-1 morning line, went off 13-1) ran second and #5 Lady Traveler (12-1 morning line, went off 18-1) ran third...editor’s note: wish we had boxed our combined horses as the 1-2-5-4 paid $4,971.40 for a $1 superfecta.)

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