Tuley's Thoroughbred Takes for June 17-21

By Dave Tuley  (VSiN senior reporter) 

June 17, 2020 01:04 AM
tuley_long_shots

This is the 14th edition of “Tuley’s Thoroughbred Takes” for the week of June 10-14 as me and my stable of handicapping friends continue to look for value at the horseracing tracks that are still running during the coronavirus pandemic.

Saturday’s Belmont Day was pretty chalky but our team found some success with John Lauro going 2-for-2 with his plays, Duane Colucci sticking to his guns with Tiz the Law in the Belmont and Ed Sehon hitting an exacta and a Pick 4 (though very minor profit with mostly favorites coming in). I had an $11 Place payoff with a couple of long shots coming up short (full recaps at end of column after today’s picks).

On Sunday, we have five plays after scratches with Colucci and Sehon landing on the same 4/1 shot in Belmont’s featured 8th race, the Lady Shipman Stakes. Good luck today (and every day).

SUNDAY

Belmont Race No. 5 (3:29 p.m. ET/12:29 p.m. PT)

Duane Colucci likes #2 Montauk Daddy (5/1 morning line). “This Linda Rice colt is making his 3-year-old debut in a nice spot. Ran a 1:08.87 six furlongs over this course as a 2-year-old and ran only three lengths behind Jack and Noah, who crushed a nice field in 1:07 flat two days ago. Rice got her first win this meet (was 0-for-21) Saturday and I expect her to get hot leading into the Saratoga meet. Wager: Win.”

Belmont Race No. 8 (5:05 p.m. ET/2:05 p.m. PT)

Duane Colucci likes #4 Chili Petin (4/1 morning line). “Wesley Ward speedster returns to the turf after a wire-to-wire score at Turfway. Should be loose on the lead with ultra-hot Irad Ortiz Jr. in the saddle. Had a super :46.4 work on June 3 at Keeneland. Remember that Ward thought enough of her to send her to Ascot. Wager: Win and key #4 with #6 & #8 in trifectas and exactas, and reverse both just in case.”

Ed Sehon also likes #4 Chili Petin (4/1 morning line). “Trainer Wesley Ward thought enough of this 3-year-old daughter of City Zip to take her across the pond to Ascot last summer for a stakes following her auspicious winning debut at Keeneland. Unfortunately, she failed to fire, finishing 12th of 25. After 10 months off to rest and recover, she made her return a winning one in an open claiming event at Turfway Park in March. Two recent fast works at Keeneland indicate she’s ready for another excellent effort in today’s Lady Shipman Stakes at six furlongs on the turf. Nation’s top rider Irad Ortiz Jr. climbs aboard. Wager: Win and exacta box of 3, 4, 6 & 11. Bonus bet: 4/12 Daily Double.”

Belmont Park Race No. 9 (5:36 p.m. ET/2:36 p.m. PT)

Ed Sehon likes #12 Diannesimpazible (6/1 morning line). “I’m looking for Irad Ortiz Jr. to complete the late riding Daily Double upon winning $40,000 maiden claimer for NY-breds. Away since December and facing a full field from the outermost post, the recently gelded son of Mission Impazible will be flying late in mile-and-a-sixteenth turf test for sharp trainer Rudy Rodriquez. Wager: Win and exacta box of 3, 8, 11 & 12.”

Santa Anita Race No. 6 (6:03 p.m. ET/3:03 p.m. PT)

Dave Tuley likes the long shots in the Grade 3 San Juan Capistrano Stakes. You need a closer in a mile and three-quarter race on the turf like this, though only one entrant in this eight-horse field has raced this distance before, so that uncertainty also helps the chances of a long shot hitting the board. I know jockey Brice Blanc is only 5% on the turf this year, but he’s cashed a lot of big tickets for me over the years in turf races, so I’m sure to have a flier on #1 Soberano (30/1 morning line). I’ll also be using with #6 Swamp Souffle (10/1) and #7 Avalanche (10/1) to really light up the toteboard, though also using #8 Ward ‘n Jerry (6/5 favorite) just in case he comes in with one of these price horses.

 

Prior day’s results:

SATURDAY

Belmont Race No. 2

John Lauro liked #1 No Parole (3/1 morning line)…went off 3/1…went right to the lead in the Grade 1 Woody Stephens Stakes as Lauro predicted and wired the field by three and three-quarter length, paying $8.20 to Win.

Ed Sehon liked #5 Shoplifted (8/1 morning line)…went off 7/2…sat last of 5 through the opening quarter and put in mild rally but was only able to get up for 3rd, though Sehon did give out 1-4-5 exacta box that returned $37.40 for $2 wager.

Belmont Race No. 4

Dave Tuley liked #5 Vanzzy (12/1)…went off 15/1…pressed the pace but wasn’t able to take control and gradually faded to finish 4th.

Churchill Race No. 6

Ed Sehon likes #4 Pixelate (7/2 morning line)…went off 5/2…stalked the leaders through the first six furlongs but was only able to get up for 3rd.

Belmont Races Nos. 7-10

Ed Sehon liked the following $0.50 Pick 4 (cost $60, went 4-for-4, paid $70)

Race 7: #4 Strongerthanuknow, #8 My Sassy Sarah & #12 Speightstown Gal

Race 8: #1 Gamine & #4 Casual

Race 9: #2 Oleksandra, #3 Texas Wedge, #5 Stubbins & #6 Hidden Scroll

Race 10: #1 Tap It to Win, #2 Sole Volante, #8 Tiz the Law, #9 Dr Post & #10 Pneumatic

Belmont Races Nos. 9-12

Duane Colucci likes the following $0.50 Pick 4 (cost $54, went 2-for-4)

Race 9: #1 Kanthaka, #2 Oleksandra, #3 Texas Wedge, #4 Pure Sensation, #5 Stubbins & #6 Hidden Scroll.

Race 10: #1 Tap It to Win, #2 Sole Volante & #8 Tiz the Law.

Race 11: #6 Pillar Mountain, #9 Digital Age.

Race 12: #1 Veterans Beach, #7 Qian B C & #8 Turbo Drive.

Belmont Race No. 9

Dave Tuley likes #1 Kanthaka (10/1)…went off 16/1…raced midpack until making nice move a five-sixteenths pole and rallying six-wide in the stretch, got to the lead at the sixteenth pole but was just able to hold off winner Oleksandra by a neck…paid $11 to Place.

Churchill Race No. 9

John Lauro likes #3 Factor This (8/5 morning line)…went off as even-money favorite…went right to the lead in Grade 2 Wise Dan Stakes and led at every call before prevailing by a neck, paying $4 to Win.

Belmont Race No. 10

Duane Colucci liked #8 Tiz the Law (6/5 morning line)…went off as 4/5 favorite in the Belmont Stakes…stalked the pacesetters early in perfect position…took control at top of the stretch and coasted to 3 3/4-length victory, paying $3.60 to Win.

Ed Sehon liked #1 Tap It to Win (6/1 morning line)…went off 5/1…set early fractions as expected but wasn’t able to hold off the winner and faded to finish 5th of 10.

Dave Tuley liked #3 Max Player (15/1 morning line)….went off 14/1…race 9th of 10 through opening half-mile, moved into contention on backstretch and went seven-wide into the stretch to get up for 3rd.

Belmont Race No. 11

Duane Colucci likes #6 Pillar Mountain (8/1 morning line)…went off 7/1…sat last of 10 through the opening six furlongs, made a mild rally but only able to get up for 6th.

 

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