Tuley's Thoroughbred Takes for Breeders' Cup 2020 (Nov. 6 & 7)

By Dave Tuley  (VSiN.com senior reporter) 

November 6, 2020 05:04 AM
tuley_long_shots

 

Welcome to our betting guide for the 2020 Breeders’ Cup, which is being run Friday and Saturday, Nov. 6-7, at Keeneland Race Course in Lexington, Ky.

 

This is our favorite two horse racing days of the year as it’s not only the world championships with the best horses in the world competing for big money and their divisions’ Eclipse Awards, but there are many betting opportunities as high-quality horses go off at higher odds than they’ll be all year. I’ve had a lot of success over the years with long-shot winners, starting with Cash Run (paid $67 to Win) in 1999 when I was managing editor at the GamingToday newspaper here in Las Vegas; Volponi ($89) in 2002 and Wilko ($58.60) in 2004, among others, when I was the Las Vegas correspondent for Daily Racing Form; Take Charge Brandi ($125.40) when I was at ESPN.com in 2014; and Battle of Midway ($30.40) and Talismanic ($30.20) here at VSiN.com. Those were all my top value plays in those races as I’ve found it pays to go for the gusto in the BC.

 

Betting this way means there’s a chance to go 0-fer, which I’ve done with my top choices the last two years. However, if you had boxed my top four choices in each race as I suggest in all my BC articles, you would have hit the $2 for exacta for $976.40 and $1 trifecta for $3,930.50 in the Juvenile last year as Storm the Court (45-1) beat Anneau d’Or.

 

So, this year, I’ll continue to list my top 4 picks in each of the 14 Breeders’ Cup races on Friday and Saturday, but will also focus on my top value play in my write-up for each race. In addition, since I know not everyone is comfortable with my style of betting, my stable of handicapping friends will give their top picks. Duane Colucci, the Rampart’s race & sports book manager here in Las Vegas and a frequent guest on VSiN programs and the Ron Flatter racing pod, and my friend Ed Sehon give their top pick in each BC race as well as their recommended exotic plays. John Lauro also has some spot plays on each day.

 

My recommendation is to mix and match our crew’s plays with your own handicapping to build your own horizontal (exotic bets within a race such as exactas, trifectas and superfectas) and vertical (exotic bets over multiple races such as doubled, Pick 3s, Pick 4s and Pick 6s) wagers.

 

Good luck this weekend (and every weekend!).

 

FRIDAY

 

Keeneland Race No. 6: BC Juvenile Turf Sprint (2:30 p.m. ET/11:30 a.m. PT)

John Lauro likes #14 GOLDEN PAL (8-5 morning line). “One of two best bets on Friday’s card. Golden Pal is the first foal out of multiple stakes winner Lady Shipman. She’s built like a 3-year-old and has the talent to overcome the No. 14 post. Using #14 with #6 Ubettabelieveit & #13 Second of July.”

 

Duane Colucci likes #14 GOLDEN PAL (8-5 morning line). “Golden Pal to lead throughout and using #3 Lipizzaner and #7 Momos in exotics.”  

 

Ed Sehon likes #9 AFTER FIVE (6-1 morning line). “Wesley Ward-trained colt has enough closing kick to beat heavy favorite #14 Golden Pal & price play #12 Dirty Dangle (20-1). Wager: Win & Place.”

 

Dave Tuley likes #11 INTO THE SUNRISE (15-1 morning line). “Take the hidden entry of Wesley Ward’s ‘other horse’ to steal this on the front end. Using with #14 Golden Pal, #13 Second of July and longshot #8 Amanzi Yimpile (15-1).”

 

Keeneland Race No. 7: BC Juvenile Turf (3:10 p.m. ET/12:10 p.m. PT)

Dave Tuley likes #2 NEW MANDATE (12-1 morning line. “Frankie Dettori should be flying on this one down the stretch to pull the upsets for the Europeans. Using with #5 Cadillac, #9 Battleground and longshot #3 Abarta (12-1).”

 

Duane Colucci likes #11 GRETZKY THE GREAT (8-1 morning line). “He’s coming off a huge mile win in the Grade 1 Summer at Woodbine. Use with #1 Sealiway & #6 Mutasaabeq in exotics.”

 

Ed Sehon likes #3 ABARTA (12-1). “Longshot poised to upset field for top trainer Brad Cox. #1 Sealiway, #4 Public Sector & #9 Battleground will run well. Wager: Exacta box of 3/1,4,9.”

 

Ed Sehon also likes the following $.50 Pick 4 (cost $60)

Race 7: 1,3,4,9

Race 8: 1,2,3

Race 9: 4,5

Race 10: 3,5,7,8,9

 

Keeneland Race No. 8: BC Juvenile Fillies (3:50 p.m. ET/12:50 p.m. PT)

Duane Colucci likes #7 PRINCESS NOOR (9-5 morning line). “Princess Noor should get Bob Baffert on the board. Key #7 over #1 Simply Ravishing & #5 Girl Daddy in trifectas and exactas.”

 

Ed Sehon likes #3 DAYOUTOFTHEOFFICE (5-2 morning line). “Royally bred young gal draws favorable post in short field. #1 Simply Ravishing & #2 Vequist main threats. Wager: Win.”

 

Dave Tuley likes #2 VEQUIST (8-1 morning line). “Vequist lost last time out in the Frizette, but that’s why we’re getting a much better price this time and should get a ground-saving stalking trip. Using with #3 Dayoutoftheoffice, #7 Princess Noor & #5 Girl Daddy.”

 

Keeneland Race No. 9: BC Juvenile Fillies Turf (4:30 p.m. ET/ 1:30 p.m. PT)

Duane Colucci likes #4 PLUM ALI (4-1 morning line). “Christophe Clement gets his first Breeders’ Cup win. Bet Win and key #4 over #5 Aunt Pearl, #10 Campanelle & #14 Editor At Large.

 

Ed Sehon likes cold exacta of #4 PLUM ALI (4-1 morning line) & #5 AUNT PEARL (3-1).

 

Dave Tuley likes #14 EDITOR AT LARGE (12-1 morning line). “This should set up for a closer. Editor At Large closed in debut, didn’t fire last time out, but has the right to close again chasing a torrid pace. Using with #10 Campanelle, #5 Aunt Pearl and longshot #8 Mother Earth (20-1).”

 

Keeneland Race No. 10: BC Juvenile (5:15 p.m. ET/2:15 p.m. PT)

John Lauro likes #7 JACKIE’S WARRIOR (7-5 morning line). “Jackie’s Warrior is built very similar to Smarty Jones and should be an easy winner. Using in exactas with #4 Likeable & #9 Sittin On Go.”

 

Ed Sehon likes #5 ESSENTIAL QUALITY (4-1). “Top trainer Brad Cox is sky high on son of super sire Tapit after impressive win over Keeneland strip in Breeders’ Futurity five weeks ago. #3 Reinvestment Risk and undefeated #7 Jackie’s Warrior provide main opposition. Looking for price plays? #8 Classier for Bob Baffert & #9 Sittin On Go, both at 12-1, offer value. Wager: Win on BEST BET of Day on #5 Essential Quality.

 

Duane Colucci likes #3 REINVESTMENT RISK (9-2 morning line). “Chad Brown and Irad Ortiz Jr. get the job done at a price and turn the tables on #7 Jackie’s Warrior. Key #3 over #7 Jackie’s Warrior, #9 Sittin On Go & #11 Next in exactas and trifectas and reverse.”

 

Dave Tuley likes #13 ROMBAUER (15-1 morning line). “Consistent closer came up just short in Grade 1 American Pharoah and should be right there at a price again. Using with #7 Jackie’s Warrior, #8 Classier and longshot #14 Calibrate (20-1).”

 

SATURDAY

 

Keeneland Race No. 1 (10:15 a.m. ET/7:15 a.m. PT)

John Lauro likes #1 NASHVILLE (4-5 morning line). “Nashville is a superstar in the making and I predict he’ll be the favorite for next year’s Breeders’ Cup Sprint. Unbelievable specimen, big and powerful. Strong Win bet.”

 

Keeneland Race No. 4: BC Filly & Mare Sprint (12:02 p.m. ET/9:02 a.m. PT)

Duane Colucci likes #2 GAMINE (7-5 morning line). “She is just way too tough for these ladies. Key #2 over #6 Venetian Harbor & #7 Serengeti Empress in exactas and trifectas.”

 

Ed Sehon likes #2 GAMINE (7-5 morning line). “Bob Baffert has his million-dollar coed speedster rested & ready for a wire-to-wire 7-furlong romp. Wager: Win & 2/7 Daily Double.”

 

Dave Tuley likes #1 SALLY’S CURLIN (20-1 morning line). “This 4-year-old daughter of Curlin knows how to win (5-of-13 lifetime and could pull shocker if there’s a suicidal speed duel. Using with #6 Venetian Harbor, #2 Gamine and another longshot #5 Sconsin.”

 

Keeneland Race No. 5: BC Turf Sprint (12:39 p.m. ET/9:39 a.m. PT)

Duane Colucci likes #12 GOT STORMY (7-2 morning line). “Filly has really found herself again sprinting. Using #12 with #1 Big Runnuer, #6 Glass Slippers & #14 Extravagant Kid in exotics.”

 

Ed Sehon likes #7 LEINSTER (4-1). “Impressive winner of prep over Keeneland grass five weeks ago, trainer Rusty Arnold retains talented Luis Saez to ride. Wager: Win (Best Bet)”

 

Dave Tuley like #14 EXTRAVAGANT KID (15-1 morning line). “This is another sprint that should set up for a stalking-type horse and Extravagant Kid should be doing his best running down the stretch. Using with #2 Leinster, #3 Imprimis & longshot #6 Glass Slippers (12-1).”

 

Keeneland Race No. 6: BC Dirt Mile (1:18 p.m. ET/10:18 a.m. PT)

John Lauro likes #5 KNICKS GO (7-2 morning line). “Knicks Go just set track record for a mile and a sixteenth at Keeneland. He’s a horse for course. He won Breeders’ Futurity at Keeneland as 2-year-old and his two-turn experience gives him a huge edge over #10 Complexity, whose lone two-turn race was terrible.”

 

Duane Colucci likes #5 KNICKS GO (7-2 morning line). “The now horse in the Brad Cox barn is going to be tough. Boxing #5 & #10 Complexity in exactas.”

 

Dave Tuley likes #12 OWENDALE (8-1 morning line). “Owendale should be able to get forwardly placed despite outside post and sit a stalking trip. Using with #5 Knicks Go, #1 Art Collector & longshot #4 War of Will (10-1).”

 

Ed Sehon likes #4 WAR OF WILL (10-1 morning line). “Classy 4-year old burning up course in the morning. Return to dirt and fits running style. Casse-Gaffalione combo hard to beat. Wager: Win & exacta box of 4 w/ 5,10,12.”

 

Keeneland Race No. 7: BC Filly & Mare Turf (1:57 p.m. ET/10:57 a.m. PT)

Duane Colucci likes #6 RUSHING FALL (5-2 morning line). “Rushing Fall has been dominant for the Chad Brown barn all season. Has to top #4 Mean Mary and #14 Cayenne Pepper. Key #6 over #4 & #14 in trifectas. Also box all three in exactas and trifectas.”

 

Ed Sehon likes #3 PEACEFUL (12-1 morning line). “Overseas chatter from those-in-the-know says Iriish-born daughter of Galileo is very best of British invaders for trainer Aiden O’Brien. Toss last over heavy weeds. Wager: Win & Place.”

 

Dave Tuley likes #10 CIVIL UNION (12-1 morning line). “Joel Rosario should have this 5-year-old daughter or War Front running late for Shug McGaughey. Using with #13 Nay Lady Nay, #6 Rushing Fall and longshot #1 Starship Jubilee (10-1).”

 

Keeneland Race No. 8: BC Sprint (2:36 p.m. ET/11:36 a.m. PT)

Duane Colucci likes #11 DIAMOND OOPS (8-1 morning line). “Diamond Oops is in great shape heading into this BC Sprint and should make it three wins in a row. Boxing an exacta with Peter Miller’s impressive #2 C Z Rocket.”

 

Ed Sehon likes #8 FIRENZE FIRE (8-1). “Rested, tested aging speedster retains underrated rider Jose Lezcano for solid conditioner Kelly Breen. Faster the track the better. Wager: Win & 6,8,10,11 exacta box.”

 

Dave Tuley likes #13 Jasper Prince (30-1 morning line). “This invader from Japan has some sneaky early speed hidden in the foreign PPs and the shortening up from 7 to 6 furlongs should help. Using with #10 Yaupon, #2 C Z Rocket and longshot #3 Colussion Illusion (20-1).”

 

Keeneland Race No. 9: BC Mile (3:15 p.m. ET/12:15 p.m. PT)

Duane Colucci likes #10 HALLADAY (12-1 morning line). “Luis Saez will put this monster on the lead and never look back. This horse is the quickest miler in this country with huge wins at Gulfstream and Saratoga in quick times proves this. Key #10 over the Brown entries of #5 Digital Age, #12 Uni & #14 Raging Bull in exactas and trifectas and reverse.”

 

Dave Tuley likes #8 MARCH TO THE ARCH (15-1 morning line). “Bettors often don’t give enough credit to horses invading from Woodbine and this Mark Cassee trainee comes in off a second-place finish in the Grade 1 Woodbine Mile, so even more will discount his chances but he should be right in the mix at a price. Using with #12 Uni, #11 Ivar & longshot #3 Lope Y Fernandez.” 

 

Ed Sehon likes #11 IVAR (4-1). “Versatile Brazilian-born colt 5 for 7 lifetime, including highly regarded G1 Shadwell Turf Mile at 14-1 over course last month. Joe Talamo adds to appeal. Wager: Win.”

 

Ed Sehon also likes the following $0.50 Pick 4 (cost $60)

Race 9: 5,11,14

Race 10: 5,10

Race 11: 1,2,9,10

Race 12: 4,7,8,9,10

 

Keeneland Race No. 10: BC Distaff (3:54 p.m. ET/12:54 p.m. PT)

Ed Sehon likes cold exacta of #5 SWISS SKYDIVER (2-1 morning line) & #10 MONOMOY GIRL (8-5). “Can’t separate dynamic duo.”

 

Duane Colucci likes ##5 SWISS SKYDIVER (2-1 morning line). “Winner of the Preakness and #10 Monomoy Girl are far superior in this chalky race. I will throw in #4 Horologist, who has had an excellent season for trainer Bill Mott. Boxing all three in exactas and trifectas.”

 

Dave Tuley likes #2 HARVEST MOON (12-1 morning line). “While everyone is looking at the two favorites, Flavien Prat should have Harvest Moon just off the pace and poised to spring the upset down the stretch. Using with #5 Swiss Skydiver, #10 Monomoy Girl & longshot #4 Horologist (8-1).”

 

Keeneland Race No. 11: BC Turf (4:33 p.m. ET/1:33 p.m. PT)

Ed Sehon likes exacta box of #1 ARKLOW (5-1), #2 MAGICAL (5-2), #9 CHANNEL MAKER (5-1) & #10 MOGUL (4-1). “All four capable of winning.”

 

Duane Colucci likes #10 MOGUL (4-1 morning line). “Aidan O’Brien 3-year-old has tons of mile-and-a-half experience and gets a nice weight break. Should catch #9 Channel Maker & barn mate #2 Magical in the lane. Key #10 over #2, #7 and #9 in exactas and trifectas and reverse.”

 

Dave Tuley likes #8 RED KING (20-1 morning line). “Umberto Rispoli is a top turf jockey and should get a great trip and be running fastest of all down the stretch. Using with #3 Tarnawa, #2 Magical & #6 Lord North.”

 

Keeneland Race No. 12: BC Classic (5:18 p.m. ET/2:18 p.m. PT)

Duane Colucci likes #10 MAXIMUM SECURITY (7-2 morning line). “Maximum Security is working fabulously for Bob Baffert. With Luis Saez (233 wins this year) in the saddle, this monster will be tougher to pass than his most recent performance in the Awesome Again. Bet Win and key #10 over #1 Tacitus, #2 Tiz the Law & #8 Improbable in exactas and trifectas and reverse.”

 

Ed Sehon likes #4 TOM’S D’ETAT (8-1). “Most-competitive Classic in recent memory features fine field of classy multiple winners. Hard not to like any of these: #2Tiz the Law, #7 Global Campaign and outside-posts trio of #8 Improbable, #9 Authentic & #10 Maximum Security. In trainer Al Stall Jr. & jockey Joel Rosario we trust. Wager: Win.”

 

Dave Tuley likes #1 TACITUS (20-1 morning line). “Authentic and Global Campaign should set the early pace and Tacitus should get a ground-saving trip from the rail and get first run on the others. Using with #4 Tom’s d’Etat, #9 Authentic & longshot #3 By My Standards (10-1).” 

 

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