This is our seventh installment of “Tuley’s Thoroughbred Takes” for the week of April 29 through May 3 as me and my handicapping friends look for value at the horseracing tracks that are still running during the coronavirus pandemic.
Despite the postponement of the Kentucky Derby, Saturday was a great day of racing, highlighted by trainer Bob Baffert sweeping the two divisions of the Arkansas Derby with Charlatan and Nadal. Our group’s plays were highlighted by Ed Sehon giving out the Late Pick 4 at Oaklawn, paying $232.25 for a 50-cent ticket (recaps at the end of this column).
On Sunday, we have five plays to hopefully cap off our group’s most successful week on a winning note.
Gulfstream Race No. 4 (2:15 p.m. ET/11:15 a.m. PT)
Ed Sehon likes #3 Competitive Saint (8/1 morning line). “Veteran trainer George Weaver knows how to get high-priced 3-year-olds like Competitive Saint ($160,000 son of Competitive Edge) ready to fire at first asking (21% debut runners). String of 12 consistent workouts at Palm Beach training center confirm colt’s fitness. Journeyman Edgar Zayas along for the ride. Wager: Win & Place.”
Tampa Bay Downs No. 7 (3:42 p.m. ET/12:42 p.m. PT)
Duane Colucci likes #9 All Others Follow (7/2 morning line). “Trainer Chad Brown debut turf runner has solid turf breeding and gets the services of top rider Antonio Gallardo. Brown has 16 starters at the current meet with five wins, five place and three shows, plus the Brown/Gallardo combo is winning at over 50% this Tampa meet. Brown also has a $2.13 ROI with first-time turfers, hitting 26% as well. Plenty of upside.”
Tampa Bay Downs No. 9 (4:43 p.m. ET/1:41 p.m. PT)
Dave Tuley likes #2 Wowee (6/1 morning line). She’s been knocking on the door at this claiming level and had some sneaky early fractions, so we’re hoping she can inherit the lead from the #2 post and wire the field. Even if she doesn’t grab the early lead, she can run with these other nonwinners of two races.
Gulfstream No. 11 (5:57 p.m. ET/2:57 p.m. PT)
Dave Tuley likes #4 R Prerogative (6/1 morning line). I like this kind of horse who’s always competitive and knows her way to the winner’s circle (14 career starts, 4 wins, 3 seconds, 4 thirds). She can go to the lead or stalk the pace, and jockey Emisael Jaramillo has been riding well of late. I fear #10 Flashing Diamond (9/2 morning line but will probably be shorter with Irad Ortiz Jr. up) as she has 9 wins from 25 starts, so I’ll use the 4-12 in the exotics.
Gulfstream Race No. 12 (6:29 p.m. ET/3:29 p.m. PT)
Ed Sehon likes #5 Keep Quiet (9/2 morning line). “Conditioner Bob Hess plays the claiming game as well as any trainer. This 6-year-old gelding ships in from Fair Grounds, where he competed against much tougher, for this mile-and-an-eighth turf test. Look for top young jock Tyler Gaffalione to bring closer home just in time. Wager: Win and box in Exactas with 2, 7 and 10.”
Prior day’s results
Gulfstream Race No. 6
Ed Sehon liked #8 Fast Fionnuala (6/1 morning line)…went off 6/1…dropped back early and never rallied, finishing 7th of 8.
Gulfstream Race No. 9
Ed Sehon liked #10 Ivyetsu (12/ morning line)…went off 25/1…broke several lengths behind field, rushed up to 4th place after half-mile but faded before the stretch, finishing last of 12.
Oaklawn Race No. 11 (6:29 p.m. ET/3:29 p.m. PT)
Ed Sehon liked #1 Charlatan (1/1 morning line)…went off as 2/5 favorite in first division of Arkansas Derby..totally controlled race, setting fractions throughout and pulling away to impressive 6-length victory, paying $2.80 to Win…Sehon’s Exacta box with Goveneur Morris was split Basin.
In addition, Sehon’s $.50 Late Pick 4 play on Oaklawn Races 11-14 (which cost $48 after the scratch of Improbable in Race 12) came in 1-12-5 9 and paid $232.25 thanks to Take Charge d’Oro winning the finale at 18/1.
Dave Tuley liked three horses to possibly upset Charlatan #4 Gouveneur Morris (9/2 morning line) went off 4/1, settled in off the pace, made a decent move but was only able to get up for 3rd…#11 Basin (8/1 morning line) went off 9/1, ran second behind Charlatan throughout but was clearly second-best…#2 My Friends Beer (20/1 morning line) went off 40/1, raced midpack but then faded, finishing last of 9….Tuley’s 1-2-4-11 Exacta and Trifecta boxes both cashed as it came in 1-11-4, but with the chalky result, they lost money, returning only $6.80 for the Exacta and $8.20 for the Trifecta.
Oaklawn Race No. 12 (7:04 p.m. ET/4:04 p.m. PT)
Duane Colucci liked #14 Improbable (8/1), but he was SCRATCHED on Saturday morning and Colucci switched to #11 Tax (15/1 morning line)…went off 12/1, was forwardly placed and sat 3rd after six furlongs, but didn’t have anything left for the stretch, finishing 5th of 13.
Dave Tuley liked #8 Sky Promise (20/1 morning line)…dropped to dead-last early as expected, but only mounted mild rally, finishing 7th of 13.
Oaklawn Race No. 13 (7:43 p.m. ET/4:43 p.m. PT)
Ed Sehon likes #11 Wells Bayou (7/2 morning line)…went off 6/1…grabbed early lead and led field through opening six furlongs, but gave way, finishing 5th of 9.
Duane Colucci likes #10 Farmington Road (12/1 morning line)…went off 6/1, dropped to back of field early, mounted mild rally but was only able to get up for 4th.