Tuley's Takes Today: Wednesday's recap, Thanksgiving plus weekend football picks (11/25)

By Dave Tuley  (VSiN.com senior reporter) 


Happy Thanksgiving from the Tuley’s Takes home office to all our readers and your families.

Thursday is a great day to spend with loved ones and eat some great food – and win some bets! 

We started the weekend on Wednesday night as our best bet on the Cavaliers + 6.5 came through in a 120-115 loss to the Suns. We hope followers were able to grab + 7 or + 7.5 during the day as it looked like we would need every half-point as the Suns got up by 10 points a couple of times before the Cavs were able to get back inside the spread to get us some early holiday money.

Let’s get to the nightly recaps of Wednesday’s action, plus a peek into Contest Corner as Circa Survivor has a special “Thanksgiving Week” with Thursday’s three NFL games, and then I’ll give my CFB and NFL picks from Point Spread Weekly for Thursday and the rest of the weekend as we try to choose the best time to place our bets.

Wednesday’s recaps

NBA: Faves/dogs split 6-6 SU with Heat-Timberwolves closing pick-'em, but dogs led 9-3 ATS. Upsets were by the Lakers + 6.5 at Pacers), Nets (+ 1.5 at Celtics), Rockets (+ 9.5 vs. Bulls), Raptors (+ 3.5 at Grizzlies), Pelicans (+ 3.5 vs. Wizards) and Kings (+ 3.5 vs. Blazers). Dogs covering in SU losses were Cavaliers (+ 7 vs. Suns), Magic (+ 8 vs. Hornets) and Thunder (+ 14 vs. Jazz). Overs went 10-3 on Wednesday but Unders still lead 159-118-3 (57.4 percent) on the season, though we probably won't see Unders at better than 60 percent anymore.

CBB: No. 25 Xavier was the only Top 25 team to get upset Wednesday as the Musketeers lost 82-70 to Iowa State (+ 8.5, + 340 ML) in the NIT Season Tip Off at the Barclays Center in Brooklyn. Wednesday's only game between ranked teams resulted in No. 22 UConn (-2.5) covering in a 115-109 2OT win vs. No. 19 Auburn in the Battle 4 Atlantis in the Bahamas.

NHL: Faves went 10-4 on Wednesday with the only upsets by the Blue Jackets (+ 115 vs. Jets), Red Wings (+ 110 vs. Blues), Golden Knights (+ 110 at Predators) and Kraken (+ 125 vs. Hurricanes). Overs went 7-6-1 with the push in the Blues-Red Wings (6) game. 

Contest Corner

Circa Survivor had a 10 p.m. PT Wednesday submission deadline for its "Thanksgiving Week" and all 134 live entrants got their pick submitted; 80 used the biggest favorite, the Cowboys, w/ 21 on the Bears, 15 on the Bills, 14 on the Lions and 4 on the Raiders. Those surviving will then make a play on the rest of the Week 12 games on Sunday and Monday.

For those interested in a little Circa Survivor history from its inaugural season last year: there were 205 live Circa Survivor entrants heading into "Thanksgiving Week" last year and 2 failed to get their picks in, plus 1 picked the Steelers too early in the week and was eliminated when the Steelers-Ravens game was postponed to Sunday.

Thursday’s Takes

Raiders + 8 vs. Cowboys: This line was bet up to 8, so hopefully anyone following along was able to grab it. Most books have settled back down to 7.5, which we’re hoping is still good as long as the Cowboys don’t win by more than 7.

Saints + 5.5 vs. Bills: This line has also been on the rise all week. I’ve seen one offshore book go to 7 and Circa Sports in Las Vegas is at -6.5 -120 as of this writing late Wednesday, so maybe we’ll bet + 7 before kickoff.

Here’s the rest of my best bets from PSW:


Friday: Kansas State + 3.5 at Texas: The hook appears to be gone, but grab the + 3 in case the line drops more.

Virginia Tech + 7 at Virginia: This is looking solid, so not sure we’ll get 7.5. 

Miami-Ohio + 1 at Kent State: Grab the point if you still can as most books are at pick-’em. I would even lay a point or two if Miami-Ohio is moved to favoritism, but obviously we always want to get the best number we can. 

Tulane + 6 at Memphis: A few books have dipped to 5.5 so grab 6 if you can ASAP. 

Western Kentucky + 2 at Marshall: This line is mostly down to 1 so get the best number you can. 

Middle Tennessee State + 4 at Florida Atlantic: This is down to 3.5 at most books, so again get what you can. 


Titans + 6.5 at Patriots: When we picked this in PSW, we were hoping it would get to 7 and it sure has as everyone is jumping on the New England bandwagon. Can we get + 7.5 by Sunday? 

Steelers + 4.5 at Bengals: This is looking pretty solid, though a few books have dipped to 4, so I’d recommend betting it sooner rather than later. 

Vikings + 3 at 49ers: Most books have gone to 49ers -3 -120 and the South Point has  moved to 49ers -3.5, so try to shop around for that hook.

Browns + 4 at Ravens: This was at + 4.5 early Tuesday, but has been gradually been getting bet down, so I would grab + 4 ASAP if you still can, though I’m expecting + 3.5 to be fine in a game that comes down to a FG.

Good luck today (and every day!).


back to news

FREE Email Sign-Up

Get the latest sports betting news & VSiN programming updates with this free daily email from VSiN, The Sports Betting Network.


View All
  • Lauri_Markanen

    Tuley's Takes Today: Tuesday recaps, Contest Corner, Wednesday play (12/1)

    As we were getting ready for the Tuesday night sports betting action to begin with the NBA, NHL and college basketball, all I could think of is that I...
  • baylor

    Early CFB Conference Championship Sharp Report

    Today bettors have a loaded Wednesday slate to choose from including 9 NBA games, 6 NHL games and 70 College Basketball games. For an updated breakdown...
  • reynolds

    Hero World Challenge best bets

    While the official PGA Tour season is on pause until January, an elite field of 20 players gathers this week for the Hero World Challenge in the Bahamas....
  • finocchiaro

    Best bets for Font-Aldo UFC card

    After a week off for Thanksgiving, the UFC heads into its last three productions of 2021 starting with Saturday’s UFC Fight Night from the Apex...
  • USATSI_17242641

    Peterson: Best bet for Nebraska vs. NC State

    The Big Ten/ACC Challenge will be decided on Wednesday and NC State will look to both help its profile, and also that of the ACC, as the Wolfpack...
  • vontobelnfl

    NFL Week 12 lessons learned

    It was an emotional week for me in the NFL, as the Indianapolis Colts’ failed cover cost me a share of the first-place prize in the Westgate SuperContest...
  • vontobelnba

    Three NBA trends to watch

    It was a somewhat quiet week in the NBA with the league taking a night off for Thanksgiving, but there is still plenty to discuss. This week we touch...
  • macneil

    Hockey bettors must beat closing line

    In the end, wins and losses are really all that matters, because every sports bettor’s goal is to make money. However, wins and losses don’t...
  • appelbaum

    Five NFL games wise guys like

    NFL underdogs continued to grind out a profit in Week 12, going 8-7 ATS. Dogs are now 101-77 ATS (57 percent) on the season. A $100 bettor taking every...
  • hill

    NFL capsules for Week 13

    Dallas Cowboys at New Orleans Saints The Dallas Cowboys (7-4 SU, 8-3 ATS) visit the New Orleans Saints (5-6 SU and ATS) on Thursday night as both...
  • moore

    Let's re-examine Gonzaga wagers

    Those predictions we heard about this college basketball season being filled with upsets and uncertainty? Well, they seem to be pretty accurate just a...
  • makinennfl

    Simulating rest of NFL season

    (To view the charts associated with this report, subscribe to Point Spread Weekly) All NFL teams have either five or six games left in their 2021-22...

VSiN Logo Plus

Free Trial

Make a risk-free bet on VSiN!


  • Afternoon subscriber-only email with highlights and best bets from the day's programs
  • Point Spread Weekly, VSiN's digital magazine on sports betting
  • 24-7 Live video stream of VSiN programs plus replays
  • Any special sport-specified betting guides we do
  • All exclusive subscriber-only stories and data on VSiN.com
Sign Up Now
Google Play
App Store