Happy Thanksgiving from the Tuley’s Takes home office to all our readers and your families.
Thursday is a great day to spend with loved ones and eat some great food – and win some bets!
We started the weekend on Wednesday night as our best bet on the Cavaliers + 6.5 came through in a 120-115 loss to the Suns. We hope followers were able to grab + 7 or + 7.5 during the day as it looked like we would need every half-point as the Suns got up by 10 points a couple of times before the Cavs were able to get back inside the spread to get us some early holiday money.
Let’s get to the nightly recaps of Wednesday’s action, plus a peek into Contest Corner as Circa Survivor has a special “Thanksgiving Week” with Thursday’s three NFL games, and then I’ll give my CFB and NFL picks from Point Spread Weekly for Thursday and the rest of the weekend as we try to choose the best time to place our bets.
Wednesday’s recaps
NBA: Faves/dogs split 6-6 SU with Heat-Timberwolves closing pick-'em, but dogs led 9-3 ATS. Upsets were by the Lakers + 6.5 at Pacers), Nets (+ 1.5 at Celtics), Rockets (+ 9.5 vs. Bulls), Raptors (+ 3.5 at Grizzlies), Pelicans (+ 3.5 vs. Wizards) and Kings (+ 3.5 vs. Blazers). Dogs covering in SU losses were Cavaliers (+ 7 vs. Suns), Magic (+ 8 vs. Hornets) and Thunder (+ 14 vs. Jazz). Overs went 10-3 on Wednesday but Unders still lead 159-118-3 (57.4 percent) on the season, though we probably won't see Unders at better than 60 percent anymore.
CBB: No. 25 Xavier was the only Top 25 team to get upset Wednesday as the Musketeers lost 82-70 to Iowa State (+ 8.5, + 340 ML) in the NIT Season Tip Off at the Barclays Center in Brooklyn. Wednesday's only game between ranked teams resulted in No. 22 UConn (-2.5) covering in a 115-109 2OT win vs. No. 19 Auburn in the Battle 4 Atlantis in the Bahamas.
NHL: Faves went 10-4 on Wednesday with the only upsets by the Blue Jackets (+ 115 vs. Jets), Red Wings (+ 110 vs. Blues), Golden Knights (+ 110 at Predators) and Kraken (+ 125 vs. Hurricanes). Overs went 7-6-1 with the push in the Blues-Red Wings (6) game.
Contest Corner
Circa Survivor had a 10 p.m. PT Wednesday submission deadline for its "Thanksgiving Week" and all 134 live entrants got their pick submitted; 80 used the biggest favorite, the Cowboys, w/ 21 on the Bears, 15 on the Bills, 14 on the Lions and 4 on the Raiders. Those surviving will then make a play on the rest of the Week 12 games on Sunday and Monday.
For those interested in a little Circa Survivor history from its inaugural season last year: there were 205 live Circa Survivor entrants heading into "Thanksgiving Week" last year and 2 failed to get their picks in, plus 1 picked the Steelers too early in the week and was eliminated when the Steelers-Ravens game was postponed to Sunday.
Thursday’s Takes
Raiders + 8 vs. Cowboys: This line was bet up to 8, so hopefully anyone following along was able to grab it. Most books have settled back down to 7.5, which we’re hoping is still good as long as the Cowboys don’t win by more than 7.
Saints + 5.5 vs. Bills: This line has also been on the rise all week. I’ve seen one offshore book go to 7 and Circa Sports in Las Vegas is at -6.5 -120 as of this writing late Wednesday, so maybe we’ll bet + 7 before kickoff.
Here’s the rest of my best bets from PSW:
CFB
Friday: Kansas State + 3.5 at Texas: The hook appears to be gone, but grab the + 3 in case the line drops more.
Virginia Tech + 7 at Virginia: This is looking solid, so not sure we’ll get 7.5.
Miami-Ohio + 1 at Kent State: Grab the point if you still can as most books are at pick-’em. I would even lay a point or two if Miami-Ohio is moved to favoritism, but obviously we always want to get the best number we can.
Tulane + 6 at Memphis: A few books have dipped to 5.5 so grab 6 if you can ASAP.
Western Kentucky + 2 at Marshall: This line is mostly down to 1 so get the best number you can.
Middle Tennessee State + 4 at Florida Atlantic: This is down to 3.5 at most books, so again get what you can.
NFL
Titans + 6.5 at Patriots: When we picked this in PSW, we were hoping it would get to 7 and it sure has as everyone is jumping on the New England bandwagon. Can we get + 7.5 by Sunday?
Steelers + 4.5 at Bengals: This is looking pretty solid, though a few books have dipped to 4, so I’d recommend betting it sooner rather than later.
Vikings + 3 at 49ers: Most books have gone to 49ers -3 -120 and the South Point has moved to 49ers -3.5, so try to shop around for that hook.
Browns + 4 at Ravens: This was at + 4.5 early Tuesday, but has been gradually been getting bet down, so I would grab + 4 ASAP if you still can, though I’m expecting + 3.5 to be fine in a game that comes down to a FG.
Good luck today (and every day!).