Wednesday was another mix of work and play in the Tuley’s Takes home office as it was my son Maddux’s 13th birthday (my young man is officially a teenager). Regular readers might recall that we had his birthday party at Chuck E Cheese a week and a half ago because last weekend we had a graduation party for his older sister, but Wednesday was his actual birthday and we had pizza again but this time with just our immediate family at a local pizzeria and ice cream parlor.
I was also able to watch my Best Bet of the day on the Warrior-Celtics Under 212.5 (it climbed to 214 and even 214.5 during the day). The game was on pace for an Over for the most part and I wasn’t even watching too intently as I assumed I had a losing ticket. As the Celtics pulled away, I was hoping the Warriors wouldn’t foul late and maybe the Celtics would be able to run out the clock and keep it Under. It actually was closer than expected as it wasn’t until 2:02 left that Jaylen Brown put the game Over the highest totals with a couple of free throws to make it 116-100 and no points were scored after that. So close but yet so far.
We also lost on our MLB dogs as we went 1-2 with the Cubs-Orioles game being rained out. We won with the Royals over the Blue Jays but lost with the White Sox and Mets.
Let’s recap the rest of Wednesday’s overall betting results and try to get back on the winning track on Thursday.
Celtics beat Warriors 116-100 to take a 2-1 lead in the NBA Finals. The ViewFromVegas is the Celtics covered as 3.5-point home favorites and also improved to 14-1 SU and 13-2 ATS off a loss. The game went Over the closing consensus total of 214 points on a Jaylen Brown free throw with 2:02 left and then no points were scored after that.
Faves improved to 2-1 SU and ATS in the Finals and 56-28 SU and 49-35 ATS (58.3 percent) overall. Home teams 2-1 SU and ATS in Finals while 51-33 SU and 44-40 ATS (52.4 percent) overall. The zig-zig is 2-0 ATS so far in the Finals, 39-30 ATS (56.5 percent) overall. Overs are 2-1 in Finals, but Unders lead 49-35 (58.3 percent).
Faves went 9-5 with the upsets by the Twins (+ 165 in 8-1 win that snapped Yankees' 7-game win streak), Royals (+ 123 vs. Blue Jays), Mariners (+ 120 at Astros), Tigers (+ 107 at Pirates) and Diamondbacks (+ 102 at Reds). Home teams lead 8-6. Unders went 7-6-1 with the push in the Yankees-Twins (9) game.
Faves are 503-324 SU (60.8 percent) on the season with 17 games closing pick-'em (faves usually win about 59 percent, so faves are still ahead of that pace). Home teams lead just 433-411 (51.3 percent, but usually closer to 54 percent). Unders lead just 416-384-42 (52 percent).
No games on Wednesday with the Avalanche having swept the Western Conference Finals. Faves are 6-2 in the conference finals round and now lead 53-28 overall. Home teams are also 6-2 this round and 50-31 overall. Unders are 5-3 in this round (3-1 in Rangers-Lightning series), while Overs still lead 43-36-2 (54.4 percent) overall.
Twins + 1.5 + 100 vs. Yankees:
We’ve gone a disappointing 2-5 the last couple of days with our traditional baseball handicapping while waiting for a swagger or anti-swagger play. We finally have one here as the Twins snapped the Yankees 7-game winning streak and are now in the anti-swagger role. We’re counting on the letdown for the Yankees in this last game of a three-game series. We would normally just play the straight money line, but we’re a little concerned as the Yankees are sending out Gerritt Cole and we’re just counting on Dylan Bundy to keep the Twins in the game with the + 1.5 run line. However, we will also have a little on the Twins + 180 on the money line. The only other dogs we like on Thursday's card are the White Sox/Cease + 110 vs. the Yankees and the Red Sox/Pivetta + 115 at the Angels/Ohtani, who are snake-bit on a 14-game losing streak.
Rangers + 110 vs. Lightning:
We’re counting on the Rangers to continue their 8-game home winning streak after losing Games 3 and 4 in Tampa Bay as the home team is 4-0 in this series heading into the pivotal Game 5. I like this play, but just not as much as the anti-swagger play against the Yankees.
Good luck today (and every day!).