Tuley's Takes Today: Wednesday recaps, updated ATS stats, Thursday Best Bets 6/23

By Dave Tuley  (VSiN senior reporter) 

June 23, 2022 06:44 AM

Wednesday was a strange day as I forgot my cell phone in my San Francisco hotel room, so I was truly on vacation for most of the day as I was disconnected from the outside world.

I took my wife and older kid Jordyn to see the Robin Williams movie, “Mrs. Doubtfire,” at the Castro Theater, which was celebrating the 100th anniversary of its opening on June 22, 1922. Fortunately, we took a Lyft and not the subway as we just missed a shooting on the MUNI system with the shooter escaping at the Castro exit shortly before our arrival.

My timing wasn’t as fortunate with my betting action on the day as we had the Lightning as a short dog in Game 4 of the Stanley Cup Final (though they closed as a short favorite, which we wish we knew earlier in the day as we might have passed, but again I was cut off from the outside world).

I also lost all my MLB plays. It would be easy to blame it on being distracted on vacation, but I didn’t spend any less time going over the game the previous night, so it’s just one of those things. We’ve had some days lately where we swept the card (or at least our plays), but this is the gambling gods evening the score.

Let’s recap the rest of Wednesday’s betting action and then try to get back on the winning track on Thursday.

Wednesday’s recaps

NHL: Avalanche beat Lightning 3-2 in OT Wednesday night to take a 3-1 lead in Stanley Cup Final. The Avs closed at an average of a -short 107 road underdog (3 Vegas books closed pick-'em). The game stayed Under the closing betting total of 6 goals.

More NHL: Faves dipped to 3-1 in Stanley Cup Final as Avalanche was 1st dog (ever so slight) to win a game, but faves still lead 58-29 overall. Home teams are also 3-1 in series and 54-33 overall. Overs also dipped to 3-1 with the 1st Under in the series, but still lead 46-39-2 (54.1 percent).

MLB: Faves went 12-3 Wednesday with only upsets by Rangers (+ 130 in 4-2 win vs. Phillies), Guardians (+ 145 in 11-10 win at Twins) and Cardinals (+ 105 in 5-4 win at Brewers). Home teams were 8-7. Overs went 8-4-3 with the pushes in the Astros’ 5-3 win over the Mets with a betting total of 8 runs, Red Sox’s 6-2 win over the Tigers with a betting total of 8 runs and Cardinals’ 5-4 win over the Brewers with a betting total of 9 runs.

More MLB: Faves lead 621-399 SU (60.9 percent) on the season with 17 games closing pick-'em (faves usually win around 59 percent, so faves still well ahead of that pace). Home teams lead 533-504 (51.4 percent, but usually closer to 54 percent). Unders dropped to 507-477-51 (51.5 percent).

Thursday’s Takes


Giants + 150 at Braves: A lot of early starts on getaway day, but the dog I like best is the Giants trying to salvage a split of a 4-game series in Atlanta with Alex Wood (5-5 but Giants are 7-6 in his starts), Wood threw 3 scoreless innings against the Braves the last time he faced them last September in a short stint as he was coming off the COVID list, but it ended up being a 2-0 shutout. We’re also considering the Astros/Valdez + 115 at the Yankees, though it’s tough to fade the Yankees these days.

Good luck today (and every day!).



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The Lombardi Line: If you like a short favorite like Alabama to cut down the nets, grab the +350 now. They'll be favored in every game moving forward, barring a potential underdog role vs Houston in the final. You'll have plenty of opportunity to hedge out. View more tips.