Tuley's Takes Today: Wednesday recaps, updated ATS stats, Thursday Best Bets 6/16

By Dave Tuley  (VSiN senior reporter) 

June 16, 2022 04:38 AM
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Wednesday was mostly spent around the house doing chores and running errands to get ready for our family trip to California next week.

We had some day baseball to keep us entertained in the Tuley’s Takes home office, but it was disappointing as we lost with the Mariners + 120 vs, the Twins as the MLB team we were backing got shut out for the fourth straight game (don’t believe that’s ever happened to me before) in a 5-0 loss.

The day dragged on until we finally got to our Best Bet of the day (Lightning + 140 at the Avalanche in Game 1 though we have more on the series price at + 175). The Avalanche jumped out to a 2-0 lead and then 3-1, but the Lightning rallied to force OT only to lose 4-3.

A loss is a loss, and I own it, but I certainly don’t consider it a bad bet when we have + 140 on a game that goes to OT and is a virtual coin-flip. It also bodes well for the rest of the series, in my opinion. We’re still hoping to get a split of the first two games in Colorado, but even if they lose Game 2 on Saturday they can get back in the series by holding serve with their home games in Tampa Bay.

At least salvaged our final play of the day on the Padres + 120 (after opening + 105) at the Cubs. We were just thrilled to have the Padres score a run after those four straight shutouts, but then the San Diego offense exploded for a 19-5 victory.

Let’s recap the rest of Wednesday’s betting action and welcome back the NBA Finals to the betting menu, at least for Thursday.

Wednesday’s recaps

NHL: Avalanche beat Lightning 4-3 in OT Wednesday night to win Game 1 of  the Stanley Cup Final. The Avalanche closed as a -150 home favorite. The game went Over the closing betting total of 6 goals.

More NHL: Faves start the final round 1-0 (after going 8-2 last round) and lead 56-28 overall. Home teams also started 1-0 (7-3 last round) and now 52-32 overall. Overs started 1-0 (Unders led 7-3 last round) and improved to 44-38-2 (53.7 percent) overall.

MLB: Faves went 10-5 Wednesday led by the Braves (-220) routed Nationals 8-2 for their 14th straight win. The upsets were by the Royals (+ 176 at Giants), Pirates (+ 167 at Cardinals to snap a 9-game losing streak), Padres (+ 122 at Cubs), Guardians (+ 105 at Rockies) and White Sox (-102 at Tigers). Road teams went 9-6. Overs went 9-4-2 with pushes in TB-NYY (7) and CLE-COL (12) games.

More MLB: Faves lead 566-359 SU (61.2 percent) on the season with 17 games closing pick-'em (faves usually win around 59 percent, so faves still well ahead of that pace). Home teams lead just 485-457 (51.5 percent, but usually closer to 54 percent). Unders dropped to 460-435-45 (51.4 percent).

NBA: The NBA Finals haven’t had a game since Monday, here’s the betting stats heading into Thursday’s Game 6. Faves lead 3-2 SU and ATS so far in the Finals and lead 57-29 SU and 50-36 ATS (58.1 percent) overall. Home teams also lead 3-2 SU and ATS in this series, 52-34 SU and 45-41 ATS (52.3 percent) overall. The zig-zig dropped to 3-1 ATS in this round with the Celtics’ non-cover in Game 5 after the zig-zag won the first time in this series, dipping to 40-31 ATS (56.3 percent) overall. Unders lead 3-2 in Finals, 51-35 (59.3 percent) overall.

Thursday’s Takes

Warriors + 4 at Celtics: Back when the Celtics were leading 2-1, I caught some flack on Twitter for making what I admitted was a mini-hedge/shot-at-a-middle with the Warriors + 3.5 in Game 4. Some saw it as a sign of weakness to not just stick with the Celtics, but while I had the Celtics to win the series, my overriding belief was that these teams are pretty even and this was likely headed for the full 7 games. It turned out to be the right call as the Warriors won 107-97 to get back in the series. Now, I need the Celtics to win to get to Game 7 and if I were willing to lay the points, I would take them in the zig-zag role, but I can’t pass up the Warriors plus the points. It’s not likely that we could get our middle with the Celtics winning to keep our future bet alive but only winning by 1 to 3 points to let us also cash our hedge (only 7 of the 86 playoff games have had the point spread come into play this postseason), but it’s worth a shot.

MLB dogs: I was lucky to find the Padres on another day where chalk dominated. Thursday is a short 9-game getaway card, though some teams are starting 4-game weekend series, but it again looks pretty chalky. I’m actually planning to try to turn a few faves into dogs at plus-money on the -1.5 run line. I especially like the Rangers/Perez -1.5 + 115 at the Tigers/Brieske and the Angels/Ohtani -1.5 + 140 at the Mariners/Kirby. The Padres at Cubs, Phillies at the Nationals and Blue Jays vs. Orioles look like playable run-line plays if you’re willing to also lay juice on top of the -1.5 runs.

Good luck today (and every day!).

 

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