Tuley's Takes Today: Wednesday recaps; Thursday NHL, NFL Week 15 picks (12/16)

By Dave Tuley  (VSiN.com senior reporter) 

December 16, 2021 03:51 AM
Justin_Herbert

Just like with Stephen’s Curry’s pursuit of the 3-point record on Tuesday, we found ourselves mostly watching pro basketball in the Tuley’s Takes home office on Wednesday night.

It was a good night for underdog bettors as dogs went 7-4 ATS, but we lost our best bet on the Clippers (+ 8 as given out in yesterday’s column and available at + 13.5 at a lot of books and I saw as high as + 14 at South Point) at the Jazz. They were short-handed, but we knew that last night and liked them anyway. They looked like they were going to stick around and get us the cover, but the Jazz pulled away in the fourth quarter on the way to a spread-covering 124-103 win.

In addition to the five upsets that are detailed in the recaps below, the Lakers and Pelicans both won on dramatic last-second shots but both failed to cover as 3.5-point favorites and I’m sure most of their backers were hoping for overtimes that didn’t come.

Of the four favorites that did cover Wednesday night, one was the Cavaliers, who routed the Rockets 124-89 as 9.5-point home. That was the Cavs’ 13th straight cover dating back nearly a month. I didn’t bet them, but I heard from a couple of readers who thanked me for putting them on the Cavs earlier in the streak as they’ve continued to bet on them even when I don’t post it as a play here. I stick to when the Cavs have been underdogs. Now, they don’t play again until Saturday, so remember that in case I get distracted by the college bowls and NFL games on Saturday as they should be getting points at the Bucks.

I’ve also been hearing from readers who enjoyed betting NHL First-Period Overs with us on Tuesday. You would have gone 2-1 if able to go Over 1.5 goals instead of Over 2.

So, after recapping Wednesday’s major sports betting action, I’ll give another NHL First-Period Over bet in addition to posting our football bets from Point Spread Weekly for Thursday Night Football and the rest of the weekend.

Wednesday’s recaps

NBA: Faves went 6-5 SU but dogs led 7-4 ATS as the Mavericks (+ 3.5) covered in a 107-104 loss vs. the Lakers (who won on Austin Reeves' 3-pointer w/ :0.9 left in OT) and the Thunder (+ 4.5) covered in a 113-110 loss vs. the Pelicans (who won on an even more incredible 61-foot 3-pointer by Devonte' Graham as time expired). The outright upsets were by the Heat (+ 8 at 76ers), Bucks (+ 3 vs. Pacers), Hornets (+ 2.5 at Spurs), Timberwolves (+ 4 at Nuggets) and Kings (+ 2.5 vs. Wizards). Dogs lead 59-47-1 ATS (55.7 percent) in December with 1 game closing pick-’em. Unders went 7-4 Wednesday and lead 229-192-6 (54.5 percent) on the season. Overs lead 55-51-2 (51.9 percent) in December.

CBB: No. 8 Arizona (-24.5) covered in 101-76 win vs. Northern Colorado, though some UA backers pushed on -25. UNCO missed 2 chances to get back in the back door in the final minute after covering nearly the entire game. No. 22 Xavier (-15) covered in 86-63 rout vs. Morehead State. No. 10 USC (-11) did NOT cover in 66-61 win vs. UC Irvine.

NHL: Faves went 2-1 with the upset by the Blackhawks (+ 125 in 5-4 OT home win vs. Capitals). Rangers (-180 at Coyotes) and Ducks (-160 vs. Kraken) won as chalk. Unders went 2-1.

Thursday’s Takes

NHL First-Period Over parlay with Avalanche-Predators Over 1.5 -125 (8:08 p.m. ET start) and Blue Jackets-Oilers Over 1.5 -130 (9:08 p.m. ET start): The Avalanche is the best First-Period Over team in the league at 19-7, so we’re counting on them even though the Predators are just 12-16. I like the Blue Jackets-Oilers better (and would recommend that most if you’re looking for a straight best bet) as the Blue Jackets are 17-10 with First-Period Overs while the Oilers are 16-11, both ranking in the Top 6 in the league. That parlay will pay more than 2-1. The other First-Period Overs I like are Golden Knights-Devils Over 1.5 -130 and Sabres-Wild Over 1.5 -105, so decide if you want to bet them straight, parlay them or round-robin them.

Chargers + 3 vs. Chiefs: Check PSW or the Thursday Night best bet article at VSiN.com for my reasons for liking the Chargers. It’s possible the line could get bet back to 3.5 before kickoff with the public backing the Chiefs, but I’m fine with the + 3 as well as + 140 on the money line.

Saturday/Sunday NFL

Teaser portfolio: We’ve written a lot about 2-team, 6-point NFL teasers all season, including them leading to a winning weekend in Week 14 even though faves went 11-3 ATS and we went 1-4 ATS with our best straight bets. Now, in Point Spread Weekly, I wrote that my top teaser of the week was Patriots + 8.5 with the Bengals + 7.5 (though now available to tease from + 2.5 to + 8.5). I’m sticking with that, but with the Raiders now favored by 1.5 over the Browns in Saturday’s first game due to Cleveland’s mounting COVID woes, the Browns teased to + 7.5 now gets added to the conversation as I believe Case Keenum can keep them in the game if Baker Mayfield isn’t cleared to play. The Dolphins have been bet up to -10 vs. the Jets, so that removes them from our preferred teaser plays, but we still have the Steeers teased up from + 2 to + 8.

Washington + 5 at Eagles: This line is now up to 7, so we’ll wait to see if it goes any higher.

Panthers + 10.5 at Bills: Some books have gone to 11, so we’ll also wait to bet this game.

Giants + 10.5 vs. Cowboys: This is also up to 11 and even 11.5 at some books, so wait and grab the best number you can.

Lions + 13.5 vs. Cardinals: This line is down to 13 at most books, so we should probably grab that now as it looks more likely to drop further as opposed to getting bet back up.

Saints + 11 at Buccaneers: A few books at 10.5, so probably grab the 11 now if you still can.

Good luck today (and every day!).

 

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