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Tuley's Takes Today: Wednesday recaps plus TNF, NFL Week 9 picks (11/4)

By Dave Tuley  ( senior reporter) 

November 4, 2021 12:11 AM

We’ve been busy handicapping this weekend’s Breeders’ Cup races in the Tuley’s Takes home office, but it was nice to have MACtion on in the background on Wednesday night.

And it felt even better that I didn’t go with my alma mater, Northern Illinois, in yesterday’s column and instead landed on Central Michigan as a 10–point underdog in the Chippewa’s 42-30 victory (and hopefully the fact that it closed + 9 means that readers were sharing the wealth.

Longtime readers of mine should also recognize that this was a “Tuley Cover.” For the uninitiated, a Tuley Cover is when an underdog not only wins outright but ends up winning by more points than they were getting. It’s not as impressive when a 2.5-point dog wins by a field goal or more, but it really means you had a live dog when a 9-point dog wins straight-up by double digits.

OK, I know, enough of the patting myself on the back! Let’s get to the recaps from Wednesday night’s action and then get the weekend started with a best bet for Thursday night. In addition, I’m adding updates on my best bets from Point Spread Weekly as some lines are already on the move – most notably the Packers-Chiefs line with the announcement Aaron Rodgers had tested positive for COVID shortly after PSW was sent to VSiN subscribers on Wednesday morning.

Wednesday’s recaps

CFB: Central Michigan (9-point road underdog) upset Western Michigan 42-30 and it went Over the betting total of 64.5 points. Kent State (3.5-point home favorite) covered in 52-47 win vs. Northern Illinois as the game flew Over 72 points. Dogs went 4-1 ATS the last two nights of MACtion while Overs were also 4-1. MACtion Overs are actually 52-21-1 (71.2 percent) in mid-week games (Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday) over the last five years.

NBA: Favorites went 8-3 SU on Wednesday with the only upsets by the Cavaliers (+ 5.5 vs. Blazers), Raptors (+ 3.5 at Wizards) and Grizzlies (+ 1.5 vs. Nuggets) but just 7-4 ATS as Spurs (+ 2 vs. Mavericks) covered in 109-108 SU loss. Unders went 8-2-1 with the push in the Mavs-Spurs (217) game.

NHL: Faves/dogs split 2-2 on Wednesday with the upsets by the Blue Jackets (+ 160 in 5-4 win at Avalanche) and Kings (+ 130 in 3-2 win in shootout vs. Blues). Overs went 3-1 on the night with Blues-Kings (Under 5.5) the lone exception.

Thursday’s Takes

Jets + 10.5 at Colts: I didn’t have the Jets as double-digit home dogs vs. the Bengals, and my mistake was going along with all the experts out there that Mike White hadn’t looked very impressive in relief of Zach Wilson in the Jets’ 54-13 loss to the Patriots the week before. It’s hard to back a team off a loss like that, especially going to a backup QB. The Jets are again getting double digits even after upsetting the Bengals, and I’m willing to jump on them here. But, having said all that, this bet is more about fading the Colts at this high number. The Colts are clearly the better team, but I have this line closer to a touchdown. The Colts held the lowly Texans to three points three weeks ago, but they average giving up 22.9 points per game. If the Jets can get in that 20-23 range, I don’t see the Colts topping 30 points to get the cover, especially as the Jets have the pass rush to force Carson Wentz into mistakes.

As we’ve written several times, these are our recommended best bets and the lines from Point Spread Weekly. Go there for more on the reasons why I like the picks, but here we’re most concerned with timing our bets and getting the best numbers possible.

Broncos + 10 at Cowboys: We hope everyone grabbed the 10, though some books are still holding the line at 10 and it might come back, especially if reports keep coming out that Dak Prescott is good to go.

Vikings + 5.5 at Ravens: This line is up to 6 just about everywhere, so we should wait to see if it goes even higher.

Chiefs pick-’em vs. Packers: Well, this line is long-gone as that’s what it was when we were putting Point Spread Weekly together. You know that I’m not going to lay the -7.5 (or even 7), so let’s just tease it down to -1.5 as the Chiefs pretty much just have to win the game straight-up. For more teaser options, see below.

Titans + 7.5 at Rams: This line looking solid since moving over a TD when it was announced Tennessee RB Derrick Henry was out. Still love it.

Teaser strategy (use these in combinations depending on which you like): Browns from + 2.5 to + 8.5 at Bengals, Giants + 2.5 to + 8.5 vs. Raiders, Eagles + 2.5 to + 8.5 vs. Chargers, 49ers + 1.5 to + 7.5 vs. Cardinals. As we mentioned above, with the change in the Packers-Chiefs spread, add the Chiefs from -7.5 to -1.5 (or -7 down to -1) vs. Packers. In addition, I wouldn’t talk anyone out of using Rams from -7.5 down to -1.5 vs. Titans, but as you see I’m on the Titans (though it does have a very hittable middle with Rams -1.5 and Titans + 7.5).

Good luck today (and every day!).

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