Tuley's Takes Today: Wednesday recap, weekend football picks (10/28)

By Dave Tuley  (VSiN.com senior reporter) 

October 28, 2021 05:40 AM
Kyler_Murray

We got back on track on Wednesday as we prepare for the weekend here in the Tuley’s Takes home office.

The Astros even the World Series 1-1 as we recommended a + 145 series bet on Houston in yesterday’s column. I did also write “We could lay around -112 in Wednesday night’s Game 2 (and I wouldn’t talk you out of it if that’s what you want to do”),” so maybe some of you took that to heart to lock in some “short money.” In retrospect, maybe the better approach would have been to bet the Astros on the run line like we did in Game 2 to get the plus-money right away, and then bet a series future if they fell behind 2-0 at an even bigger price.

Oh, well, we’ll take it and decide Friday if we’ll take the Astros in Game 3 or let the series bet ride.

Let’s recap Wednesday’s betting action and then move on to our football bets for the weekend.

Wednesday’s recaps

MLB: Astros (-121 home faves) beat Braves 7-2 Wednesday night to even the World Series at 1-1. The game Pushed on the closing betting total of Over/Under 9 runs, though earlier Over 8.5 bets cashed. Faves/dogs and home/road teams are both 1-1 so far in the series while Unders lead 1-0-1 vs. closing totals. Overall in the playoffs (not counting wild-card games), faves lead 19-12, home teams lead 20-11 and Overs are 18-12-1.

NBA: Underdogs went 6-4 SU and 7-3 ATS Wednesday with upsets by Heat (+ 3.5 at Nets), Wizards (+ 4 at Celtics), Thunder (+ 5.5 vs. Lakers), Timberwolves (+ 6 at Bucks), Kings (+ 8 at Suns) and Cavaliers (+ 8 at Clippers), plus Pelicans (+ 5 vs. Hawks) covering in SU loss. Unders went 7-3.

NHL: Underdogs went 3-2 Wednesday with upsets by Red Wings (+ 175 at Capitals), Golden Knights (+ 145 at Stars) and Flyers (+ 172 at Oilers). Road teams went 4-1 on the night, including those 3 upsets. Unders also went 4-1.

Thursday’s Takes

NFL

Cardinals in teasers vs. Packers: As I wrote in Point Spread Weekly and also in the “Best Thursday Night Football bets” column at VSiN.com, we’re starting the weekend with 6-point teasers on the Cardinals down to -0.5 (as they’re 6.5-point home favorites and basically have to win the game SU) with the Vikings teased from + 1.5 to + 7.5 (or 2 to 8 if your book still has Vikings + 2. The other potential teaser is the Cardinals with the Panthers teased from + 3 to + 9

Dolphins + 13.5 at Bills: Line is pretty solid, but waiting to see if it gets bet to 14.

Lions + 3.5 vs. Eagles: Some books have dipped to 3, so grab the hook before it disappears.

Steelers + 3.5 at Browns: This is looking even more stable at 3.5, so should be safe to wait to see if it goes to 4, but just be ready to react if the market starts to move to 3.

Patriots + 5.5 at Chargers: Some 5’s starting to pop up, so maybe take the 5.5 now, though not as important around the “dead number” of 5 (now watch it land on it!!).

Giants + 10 at Chiefs: There are some books that have dipped to 9.5. I’m grabbing the 10 now. As popular of a team as the Chiefs remain, there’s certainly a lot of people turning on them now, so I’m less certain of this rising to 10.5 over the weekend.

College Football

Friday: Navy + 11 at Tulsa

Iowa + 3.5 at Wisconsin

Indiana + 6 at Maryland: This is down to 5.5, but I still like it.

Virginia Tech + 4 vs. Georgia Tech

Florida State + 10 at Clemson: Grab ASAP if you can as most books down to 9.5.

Penn State + 18.5 at Ohio State: I’m waiting as this looks like it’s going higher.

Good luck today (and every day!).

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