Tuley's Takes Today: Wednesday recap, updated betting stats, Thursday picks 5/19

By Dave Tuley  (VSiN senior reporter) 

May 19, 2022 06:54 AM
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Wednesday was supposed to be nice and leisurely in the Tuley’s Takes home office with no office and some day baseball.

Things started great with the Braves (+ 130 road underdogs) jumping out to a 4-0 lead over the Brewers only to have Kelly Jansen blow the save and the Brewers rally three times to finally win 7-6 in 11 innings. That was a harbinger of things to come as we also lost in MLB with the Padres at the Phillies, got swept in the NHL with the Rangers and Oilers and lost our Best Bet of the night on the Mavericks with the Rangers being the only team to really put up a fight.

We’ve been on such a great run here over the better part of 3 months since the Super Bowl and have hopefully helped make our followers a lot of money, but it’s certainly humbling to be going through this slump. It really does show what Jimmy Vaccaro always says: this is a tough racket. And it also shows that no one can keep a high percentage going beyond the short-term. Even the legendary Billy Walters never claimed to hit better than 60 percent long-term.

Let’s recap the rest of Wednesday’s betting results and try to break out of this slump on Thursday.

Wednesday’s recaps

NBA: Warriors (-5.5) routed Mavericks 112-87 in Game 1 of Western Conference Finals (game stayed Under the betting total of 216.5 points). Faves (both home) have started this round 2-0 SU and ATS, improving to 48-23 SU and 41-30 ATS (57.7 percent) overall. Home teams 45-26 SU and 38-33 ATS (53.5 percent). Unders 1-1 this round but lead 44-27 (62 percent).

NHL: Flames (-165) beat Oilers 9-6 late Wednesday in Game 1 of their 2nd-round series (went way Over 6.5 goals). Earlier, Hurricanes (-175) beat Rangers 2-1 in OT in Game 1 of their series (stayed Under 5.5). Faves (both at home) swept 2-0. Over/Unders split 1-1.

More NHL: Faves off to 3-1 start in this round and 36-19 overall in playoffs (though below .500 at 25-30 on -1.5 puck line). Home teams also 3-1 this round and lead 35-20 overall. Unders lead 3-1 in this round, but Overs lead 32-21-2 (60.4 percent) overall.

MLB: Faves/dogs split 7-7. The biggest upsets were by the Mariners (+ 210 in 5-1 win at Blue Jays), Rangers (+ 167 in 6-5 win vs. Angels), Nationals (+ 166 in 5-4 win at Marlins) and Rockies (+ 150 in 5-3 win vs. Giants). Home teams 9-5. Unders 7-5-2 with pushes in Tigers-Rays (7) and White Sox-Royals (8) games.

More MLB: Faves lead 332-215 SU (60.7 percent) on the season with 14 games closing pick-'em (faves usually win about 59 percent, so still ahead of that pace). Home teams lead just 290-271 (51.7 percent, usually closer to 54 percent). Unders lead 285-246-30 (53.7 percent), down from being at 60 percent just 23 days ago.

Thursday’s Takes

Celtics + 3.5 at Heat: We lost with both dogs in the openers of the conference finals, but here’s where we need the zig-zag to come through as we’re expecting for both these series. The Celtics get Marcus Smart back (though Al Horford still expected to be out) as they try to get a split in Miami before the series moves to Boston where the Celtics will be favored. The Celtics bounced back after each loss in their series with the Bucks, so I’m counting on that again.

MLB dogs: It looks like slim pickings again on Thursday, but I’ll fire back with the Padres + 103 at the Phillies (Yu Darvish vs. Kyle Gibson). In fact, while the Yankees have failed to cover the run line the past 2 days at the Orioles, I would rather lay -1.5 -130 with the Yankees than take any of the dogs. Admittedly, I’m gun-shy with this recent slump and trying to be more selective.

NHL dogs: We’re taking the night off from hockey as I don’t like either underdog. The Lightning stole Game 1 against the Panthers and I expect the President’s Trophy winners to rebound and even their series. Meanwhile, while Jordan Binnington played great for the Blues in their Game 1 OT loss at the Avalanche, it looked like Colorado was on a constant power play as they continuously peppered Binnington with shot and I don’t see how the Blues will be able to stop that, so I can’t back them again.

Good luck today (and every day!).

 

 

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