Tuley's Takes Today: Wednesday recap, updated betting stats, Thursday picks 5/12

By Dave Tuley  (VSiN senior reporter) 

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Wednesday was spent doing some household chores and errands in and out of the Tuley’s Takes home office as we awaited our betting action.

It was worth the wait as we not only hit our Best Bet of the day on the Grizzlies + 4 vs. the Warriors (one of our easiest wins in a whilte with the Grizzlies’ 134-95 rout). That improved our record to 52-35-1 ATS (59.8 percent) with our top play of the day the past 88 days (that’s 12-plus weeks since starting our run with the Bengals + 4.5 on Super Sunday).

We also won our secondary play on the Bucks + 5.5 at the Celtics as they also pulled the outright upset, 110-107. It wasn’t as easy as the Warriors, but we felt we had the right side all along, and at the end we were just hoping it wouldn’t go to overtime.

We did lose on the Capitals + 190 at the Panthers, but that was just one play and we were also glad we passed in MLB (though dogs went 8-5 on Wednesday, so we do feel we missed some opportunities).

Anyway, let’s recap the rest of Wednesday’’s betting results and hope we make more good decisions on Thursday.

Wednesday’s recaps

NBA: Grizzlies (+ 4, + 165 ML) routed Warriors 134-95 late Wednesday to pull within 3-2 in their 2nd-round series (game went Over 219 point). Earlier, the Bucks (+ 5.5, + 175 ML) upset the Celtics 110-107 to take 3-2 lead in their series (game went Over 211.5). Dogs 2-0 SU and ATS. Home/road split 1-1 SU and ATS. Overs went 2-0.

More NBA: Faves dipped to 14-6 SU this round and only 11-9 ATS, 44-19 SU and 37-26 ATS (58.7 percent) overall. Home teams 16-4 SU and 15-5 ATS in round, lead 40-23 SU but just 33-30 ATS. The zig-zag went 2-0 ATS, now 11-5 ATS in this round, 27-24 ATS overall. Unders dipped to 11-9 in this round, 38-25 (60.3 percent) overall.

NHL: Faves (all at home) went 3-0 Wednesday night with the Rangers (-138 in 5-3 win vs. Penguins), Panthers (-230 in 5-3 win vs. Capitals) and Flames (-215 in 3-1 win vs. Stars) winning and also covering the -1.5 puck line. The zig-zag went 1-2 (Rangers won, Capitals and Stars lost). Overs went 2-1.

More NHL: Faves improved to 23-16 SU in playoffs with the 3-0 night. Home teams also improved to 24-15. The zig-zag dipped to 18-13 overall. Overs lead 25-13-1 (65.8 percent), 17-5-1 last 6 days after 8-8 start.

MLB: Dogs went 8-5 Thursday with the biggest upsets by the Reds (+ 175 in 14-11 slugfest vs. Brewers), Pirates (+ 171 in 5-3 win vs. Dodgers), Nationals (+ 160 in 8-3 win vs. Mets) and Cubs (+ 146 in 7-5 win at Padres). Home teams went 7-6. Overs went 9-3-1 with the push in the Braves’ 5-3 win vs. the Red Sox with a betting total of 8 runs.

More MLB: Faves lead 279-174 SU (61.6 percent) on the season with 10 games closing pick-'em (faves usually win closer to 59 percent SU, so faves still ahead of that pace). Home teams dipped to 242-221. Unders dropped to 238-204-21 (54.7 percent) after being 60 percent just 16 days ago.

Thursday’s Takes

Hurricanes + 110 at Bruins: I debated long and hard about which play to make my Best Bet for Thursday and landed on the Hurricanes as they lead their NHL first-round series 3-2 and try to close it out with a win in Boston. I lost with the Hurricanes in Game 3, but expect them to finally seal the deal. I know the home team has won all 5 games of this series so far, but the Hurricanes won the two regular-season games in Boston.

Mavericks + 2 vs. Suns: This was my other choice for Best Bet of the day. I’m counting on the Mavericks to defend their home court and force a Game 7 in this series, but I’m just a little less confident in the Mavericks, mostly because the Suns are pretty good and harder to fade. But I’m still betting it, just not as much as the Hurricanes.

MLB dogs: I passed yesterday and none of the weekend series are starting yet that I mentioned in Point Spread Weekly (Blue Jays at Rays, Padres at Braves and Giants at Cardinals). But I think I am going to add Yankees + 130 at the White Sox as Luis Gill can keep the Yankees in the game vs. Dylan Cease until it gets to the bullpens. I’m debating whether to also play the Phillies + 130 at the Dodgers as the Phillies offense still needs to be more consistent.

Good luck today (and every day!).

 

 

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