Tuley's Takes Today: Wednesday recap, updated betting stats, Thursday picks 4/21

By Dave Tuley  (VSiN senior reporter) 


Wednesday was another mixed plate for yours truly in the Tuley’s Takes home office as we wrote a piece for VSiN’s upcoming NFL Draft Betting Guide but also had to juggle that with more mid-week errands, including cleaning the filters and vacuuming the Tuley’s Takes home pool (a necessity in North Las Vegas, especially with the coming summer heat) as it had accumulated a lot of dirt and leaves from some recent wind storms.

We also cleaned up with the Bulls as they cashed as 10-point road underdogs and + 400 on the money line in their upset of the defending champion Bucks to even their series at 1-1. That improved our record to 43-23-1 ATS (65.2 percent) with our top play of the day the past 67 days.

We had a mixed bag with our secondary plays as we lost another MLB play on the Braves against the Dodgers as our early-season struggles continue with our baseball plays (though I’m glad I’ve mostly stayed away from making those our Best Bet of the day) but won with the Kraken + 1.5 + 120 against the Avalanche in an anti-swagger spot after they had just their 9-game winning streak snapped. We kinda wimped out by taking the puck line and a lower price, but hope some readers took the full money line around + 245 as the Kraken cashed in on a 3-2 win.

Let’s recap the rest of Wednesday’s betting action and try to keep the good times rolling with our Best Bet of the day and improve our secondary selections.

Wednesday’s recaps

NBA: Bulls (+ 10, + 400 ML) upset Bucks 114-110 to even their series at 1-1. The game stayed just Under the closing betting total of 225 points. Earlier, the Celtics (-3.5) beat the Nets 114-107 to take a 2-0 series lead as the game stayed Under 225 and 76ers (-2) beat Raptors 104-101 on Joel Embiid's 3-pointer in OT to take a 3-0 lead. The game also stayed Under 216.5 despite going to OT.

More NBA: Faves went 2-1 SU and ATS Wednesday and lead 13-4 SU and 11-6 ATS in 1st round. Home teams went 1-2 SU and ATS, dipping to 12-5 SU and 10-7 ATS. The zig-zag teams went 1-2 ATS with the win by the Bulls but losses by the Nets and Raptors, dropping to 4-5 ATS so far. Unders went a perfect 3-0 on Wednesday night to take a 10-7 lead this round after going 6-0 in the play-in tournament.

MLB: Faves went 12-4 on Wednesday with upsets by Cardinals (+ 120 in 2-0 win at Marlins), Orioles (+ 112 in 1-0 win at A's); Royals (+ 111 in 2-0 win vs. Twins) and Diamondbacks (+ 105 in 11-2 win at Nationals). Road teams led 9-7. Unders continued to dominate at 10-6.

More MLB: Faves are 112-68 SU (62.2 percent) on the young season with 2 games closing pick-'em. Home teams were only 7-9 Wednesday (after going 28-10 the prior 3 days), but still lead 98-84 over road teams, which led 65-63 just 4 days ago. Unders went 10-6 to improve to 102-70-10 (59.3 percent).

NHL: Faves went 3-1 on Wednesday's short card with the lone upset by the Kraken (+ 245 in 3-2 win vs. the Avalanche). The Oilers (-180 in 5-2 win vs. Stars), Blackhawks (-160 in 4-3 win at Coyotes) and Golden Knights (-145 in 4-3 win vs. Capitals) won as chalk. Overs went 3-1.

Thursday’s Takes

Mavericks + 7 at Jazz: We’re actually going against the zig-zag theory on this one as the Jazz last the previous game on Monday (when we also had the Mavs as our Best Bet of the the day). The other zig-zag options are the Timberwolves + 1.5 vs. the Grizzlies and Nuggets + 2 vs. the Warriors, but you’ll note that the books have made the lines very short in anticipation of zig-zag bettors taking the home dogs. We made the right call in passing on the Raptors + 2 vs. the 76ers last night as the underdog Raptors were right in the game and even took it to overtime before failing to cover the short number. We trust the Mavericks more to cover this number even if Luka Doncic doesn’t play (note: I recommend grabbing the + 7 ASAP this morning in case Doncic does play.

MLB underdogs: Again, it’s been tough sledding with our dogs early this season. We have a short card on Thursday but the dogs I’m considering are a pair of home dogs in the Tigers + 150 vs. the Yankees and Royals + 105 vs. the Twins, plus the Cardinals + 105 at the Marlins.

NHL 1P Overs: We’ve also been backing off on these plays (and glad I only went with the Kraken yesterday), but if you’re looking to play one of these or use in parlays, my top recommended 1P Over plays for Thursday are Red Wings-Panthers 1P Over 1.5 and Sabres-Devils 1P Over 1.5, though beware that most books are going to Over 2 even though these have cooled off.

Good luck today (and every day!).



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