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Tuley's Takes Today: Wednesday recap, updated betting stats, Thursday best bets 5/5

By Dave Tuley  (VSiN senior reporter) 

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Wednesday was a day that was mostly spent handicapping the Friday and Saturday horse racing cards at Churchill Downs for the Kentucky Oaks and Kentucky Derby cards. We’re hoping to post our “Team Tuley’s Thoroughbred Takes” column by Thursday evening with tons of selections from our handicapping crew.

We seem to have picked up a little bit of a cold (no, I’m not worried about it being COVID) and apologize for posting this column later than usual on Thursday morning as my Nyquil kicked in before I could file last night.

Our Best Bets didn’t fare too well yesterday as we lost our top play on the Mavericks + 6 as they ended up getting blown out by the Suns. That dropped our record to 49-31-1 ATS (61.3 percent) the past 81 days as we’re trying to stay above 60 percent with our top play of the day. At least we passed on the 76ers in the other NBA game.

We split on our NHL underdog plays as the Lightning won at %plussign5 with the Bruins + 105 losing for a slight profit on those plays. We also broke even on our MLB plays as we lost with the Cubs + 130 vs. the White Sox, but at least cut our losses with the gift that keeps on giving by fading the Reds again with a run-line play on the Brewers -1.5 -125 as they covered easily in an 18-4 rout.

Let’s recap the rest of Wednesday’s action and then try to get back on the winning track on Thursday, though it’s a relatively light card with the NBA taking the night off.

Wednesday’s recaps

NBA: Suns (-6) pulled away to rout Mavericks 129-109 late Wednesday to take 2-0 lead in their 2nd-round series. The game went Over its betting total of 218 points. Earlier, the Heat (-8) beat the 76ers 119-103 to also take a 2-0 series lead and this game also went Over 208.5). Faves (both at home) went 2-0 SU and ATS on the night while Overs were also 2-0.

More NBA: Faves are 6-2 SU and 5-3 ATS so far in this round and lead 36-15 SU and 30-21 ATS (58.8 percent) overall. Home teams are 6-2 SU and 7-1 ATS this round. Home teams lead 30-21 SU overall, but road teams actually still lead 26-25 ATS. The zig-zag theory went 0-2 ATS (76ers and Mavericks) on Wednesday night, dropping back to .500 this round at 2-2 ATS and 18-21 ATS overall. Over/Unders are 4-4 in this round as Unders dipped to 31-20 (60.9 percent).

NHL: Faves went 3-1 with the upset by the Lightning (+ 115 in 5-3 win at Maple Leafs to even series 1-1). The Hurricanes (-120) beat the Bruins 5-2 to take a 2-0 lead in their series while the Wild (-140) and Oilers (-210) beat the Blues and Kings, respectively, to even both those series at 1-1. Home teams were 3-1 on the night, and Overs were also 3-1. Faves and home teams (same in all 1st-round games so far with higher-seeded teams at home) both improved to 7-5 and Overs also improved to 7-5.

MLB: Faves went 9-8 with the most notable upset being by the Blue Jays (+ 138 in 2-1 win vs. Yankees, snapping their 11-game winning streak). The biggest upsets were by the Rangers (+ 165 at Phillies) and Diamondbacks (+ 148 at Marlins). Road teams led 9-8. Overs went 10-6-1 with the push in the White-Sox-Cubs game with a betting total of 7 runs.

More MLB: Faves wentn just 9-8 Wednesday but still lead 227-137 SU (62.4 percent) on the season with 7 pick-’ems (faves usually win closer to 59 percent SU). Home teams were just 8-9 to dip to 191-180 on the season. Overs went 10-6-1 to further cut into Unders' lead at 196-159-16 (55.2 percent) after Unders were over 60 percent less than 2 weeks ago.

Thursday’s Takes

Brewers -1.5 -120 vs. Reds: This is as square as it gets (and certainly not contrarian as I prefer), but when going over Thursday’s light card, I couldn’t find a Best Bet better than this. The Reds are on a historically bad pace at 3-21 and they haven’t even been close in games lately as we’ve jumped on the bandwagon to fade them with the run line. Until they show some ability to be competitive, this will continue to be part of our daily portfolio. The only underdog I’m considering for a smaller play on the day is the Mariners + 115 vs. the Rays.

Capitals + 1.5 -120 at Panthers: The Capitals stole Game 1 at + 210 the other night, so we would normally take the money and run, but I’m leaning toward taking them again (money line is + 210 again) as the Capitals are also in a mini-swagger role as they snapped a 4-game losing streak with that win (we usually wait for 6-game streaks before consider it a swagger/anti-swagger play, but that win over the President’s Trophy winner gave them quite a bit of swag). Again, we’re not betting back all our winnings but we feel it’s worth a shot.

Stars-Panthers Under 36.5 and Panthers PK: This USFL game isn’t until Friday, but we’re seeing the market move a little and think followers should lock in bets now.

Also looking ahead to Friday, we’re probably going to pass on both the 76ers and Mavericks in their Game 3s at home, but will have an anti-swagger play against the Yankees after they had their 11-game losing streak. They play the Rangers, who are on a 4-game winning streak and we anticipate a nice plus-price on the Rangers.

Good luck today (and every day!).

 

 

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