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Tuley's Takes Today: Wednesday recap, updated ATS stats, Thursday best bets 4/28

By Dave Tuley  (VSiN senior reporter) 

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Wednesday was another day of errands worked out day baseball in the Tuley’s Takes home office and a very profitable night.

Both of our MLB underdogs (Cardinals + 105 vs. the Mets and Royals + 165 at White Sox) had morning starts here in North Las Vegas and we earned a split with the Cardinals rallying to win 10-5 and the Royals nearly rallied but lost 7-3. Still, that earned us a tiny profit.

We lost with the Bulls + 12 at the Bucks, but we hope followers took our advice of making it a smaller play as we didnt like it as much as the Nuggets + 9 at the Warriors as that was our Best Bet of the day (note: we actually went against the zig-zag with this play as the Warriors as lost the prior game straight-up). The Nuggets stuck around the whole game as expected and – with Nikola Jokic battling foul trouble and a hamstring injury – held on for the cover as the Warriors closed out their first-round series with a win.

But the ATS win improved our record to 48-25-1 ATS (65.8 percent) with our top play of the day the past 74 days (10-plus weeks).

In addition, we also cashed with our second-best bet on the Coyotes + 1.5 + 155 at the Stars. This was a swagger play as the Coyotes had snapped an 11-game losing streak in their prior game. They fell behind 3-0 which certainly didn’t help our confidence, but rallied late to force overtime. Part of the handicap was that the Stars had virtually locked up the last wild-card berth and, in fact, clinched when they picked up the point with the game going to OT. The Coyotes went on to win as + 400 underdogs (the third time they did that this season and second game in a row), though we wimped out by just taking the puck line. (Note: we backed off on betting NHL 1P Overs, which was a good thing as the two games with 6.5 game totals split 1-1 in the opening periods).

All in all, it was a great day for yours truly, and hopefully for our readers as well.

Let’s recap the rest of Wednesday’s betting action and try to keep the good times rolling on Thursday as we have a bunch of day baseball as MLB tries to get most of its action out of the way to not compete with the NFL Draft, but again we turn to the NBA for our Best Bet.

 

Wednesday’s recaps

 

NBA: Warriors beat Nuggets 102-98 to win their series 4-1. The ViewFromVegas is they did NOT cover as 9-point home faves as the game stayed Under the betting total of 225.5 points. Earlier, the Bucks (-12.5) covered in 116-100 win vs. the Bulls to also win the series 4-1 as that game also stayed Under 217.5). Faves (and home teams) were 2-0 SU and 1-1 ATS on the night while Unders were 2-0.

 

More NBA: Faves lead 26-13 SU in the 1st round, but just 20-19 ATS (51.3 percent). Home teams lead 24-15 SU, but road teams actually lead 21-18 ATS (53.8 percent). The zig-zag theory (bet on previous game’s SU loser in the next game ATS), which went 0-2 ATS Wednesday with non-covers by the Bulls and Warriors, dipped to 15-16 ATS. Unders are still dominating at 25-14 (64.1 percent). If you include the NBA play-in tournament, Unders are 31-14 (68.9 percent) as they were 6-0 in those preliminary games.

 

MLB: Faves went 10-5 with upsets by the Diamondbacks (+ 165 in 3-1 win vs. Dodgers), Cubs (+ 175 in 6-3 win at Braves), A's (+ 147 in 1-0 win at Giants), Red Sox (+ 111 in 7-1 win at Blue Jays) and Cardinals (+ 100 in 1-5 win vs. Mets). Home teams went 8-7. Unders went 9-6.

 

More MLB: Faves went 10-5 to improve to 169-103 SU (62.1 percent) on the young season w/ 2 games closing pick-'em. Home teams went 8-7 Wednesday and lead 144-130 over road teams, which led 65-63 just 11 days ago; Unders went 9-6 to stay right around 60 percent at 154-106-14 (59.2 percent).

 

NHL: Underdogs went 3-2 with upsets by the Coyotes (+ 400 in 4-3 OT win at Stars as AZ won 2nd straight after 11-game losing streak;), Canadiens (+ 155 in 4-3 win at Rangers as MTL snaps 9-game losing streak) and Blackhawks (+ 180 in 4-3 win vs. Golden Knights). Overs went 4-1.

 

Thursday’s Takes

 

Pelicans + 2 vs. Suns: This has been the epitome of a zig-zag series as the teams have alternated wins with Suns covering in Game 1, Pelicans bouncing back to steal Game 2 in Phoenix, the Suns covering in Game 3 win in New Orleans, the Pelicans evening the series at 2-2 in Game 4 and the Suns covering in Game 5. I see no reason why the Pelicans can’t keep this going by forcing a Game 7, especially with Devin Booker still out.

 

White Sox -1.5 + 135 vs. Royals: I always made this my Best Bet of the day, so I’ll call it my Value Play of the Day. The White Sox just snapped a 7-game losing streak on Wednesday, so they’re a swagger play on Thursday. Regular readers know I’m not going to lay the -175 on the straight-up money line, so let’s turn the ChiSox into a dog (price-wise) by laying the 1.5 runs and getting + 135. My other recommended dogs on the day are the Mariners + 120 at the Rays and Tigers + 130 at the Twins.

 

NHL: No underdog plays (though we’re waiting for a swagger play on the lowly Canadiens on Friday as they snapped a 9-game losing streak on Wednesday night) and no 1P Overs.

 

USFL Unders: In Point Spread Weekly, I wrote that I’m going with the 4 USFL Unders again this weekend as we don’t think the oddsmakers have adjusted enough. Based on how the market bet down all 4 totals last week, we recommend betting these ASAP so that’s why I posted these here on Tuesday: Bandits-Gamblers Under 39, Stallions-Breakers Under 44.5, Maulers-Panthers Under 38.5 and Generals-Stars Under 40.5.

 

Good luck today (and every day!).

 

 

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