Tuley's Takes Today: Wednesday recap, Thursday play of day (11/11)

By Dave Tuley  (VSiN.com senior reporter) 


Wednesday was another action-packed day of sports betting action in the Tuley’s Takes home office, though it was a little bit of a letdown from the overwhelming college basketball schedule on Tuesday. I guess that was just preparing us for Saturday’s overflowing schedule on top of college football!

Anyway, Wednesday night was highlighted by our pick of the Lakers + 4.5 coming through with flying colors as they beat the Heat outright, 120-117. They actually went off at + 5.5 at most books and even + 6 a couple of books (Circa, South Point, Wynn, Golden Nugget) here in Las Vegas. I love when the public is betting against me and giving us more line value.

Even though I didn’t have money on my alma mater, Northern Illinois University, it was also a thrill to watch my Huskies beat Ball State 29-27 on a last-second field goal to take control in the MAC West. I didn’t see this coming, but it was still fun watching the game and reminiscing about my college days (and even though the stadium looks different, I’ve kicked field goals on that field oh so many years ago while I was a reporter covering the team).

But let’s get back to the present and recap yesterday’s betting action and then make a pick for Thursday night. I’m not fading the public this time as it’s going to be a very popular play.

Wednesday’s recaps

CFB: MACtion favorites went 2-1 Wednesday with the lone upset by my alma mater, Northern Illinois (+ 3), beating Ball State 30-29 on late FG; Toledo (-10.5 in 49-17 rout vs. Bowling Green) and Central Michigan (-2.5 in 54-30 rout of Kent State) covered as chalk; Overs went 2-1. 

CBB: No. 6 Michigan beat Buffalo 88-76 Wednesday, but did NOT cover after closing as a 13.5-point home favorite in a much lighter CBB schedule than Tuesday's opening night. No. 20 Florida State routed Penn 105-70 and comfortably covered as 19.5-point home chalk.

NBA: Faves went 7-6 SU, but dogs led 7-6 ATS as Cavaliers (+ 3.5 vs. Wizards) covered in a 97-94 loss. The upsets were by the Bucks + 4 at Knicks), Pistons (+ 2.5 at Rockets), Hornets (+ 4.5 at Grizzlies), Thunder (+ 4 at Pelicans), Nuggets (+ 3 vs. Pacers) and Lakers (+ 5.5 vs. Heat. Unders went 7-6 on the night and lead 103-66-1 (60.9 percent) on the young season, but as my VSiN colleague Jonathan Von Tobel has been warning, the trend has been reversing as oddsmakers have adjusted downward on a lot of totals (note: Overs are 20-19-1 the last 5 days).

NHL: Faves went 2-1 with the lone upset by the Predators (+ 128 in 4-2 win at Stars). Road teams swept all 3 games on the night. Overs went 2-1.

Contest Corner

Westgate SuperContest lines are out for NFL Week 10, with Circa Sports Million lines coming out at 1 p.m. ET/10 a.m. PT on Thursday. This week starts a new in-season 3-week mini-contest (Weeks 10-12) in the SuperContest and the 3rd Quarter at Circa (Weeks 10-13).

In addition, the SuperContest Reboot, a $500 version that runs in NFL Weeks 10-18, starts this week and has an entry deadline of 3 p.m. PT Saturday at the Westgate SuperBook. You must register in person just like the regular SuperContest and proxies are allowed as long as the contestant authorizes them and they both appear in person. The contest uses the same lines as the SC and SC Gold and has a separate pool. Deadline for weekly submissions are also the same as the other contests at 11:59 p.m. PT Saturdays (9 p.m. PT on the mobile app).

Thursday’s Take

Ravens -1.5 teased with NFL Sunday games: I usually jump on any NFL home underdog of more than a touchdown, but I’ve become more selective in recent years as they’ve cooled off. In this case, I wasn’t too impressed with the Dolphins’ 17-9 win over the Texans with Jacoby Brissett, and it appears he’s likely to be starting in place of Tua Tagovailoa again. In fact, regardless of who has been at QB, the Dolphins have been competitive only against teams with them at the bottom of the league (Falcons, Jaguars, Texans), but when they step up in class, they usually get rolled (35-0 by the Bills, 45-17 by the Buccaneers and 26-11 again by the Bills).

The Ravens do have a tendency to let teams stick around and you know I’m not going to lay 7.5 points, but I’ll start this week’s teaser portfolio as we can move the line down from Ravens -7.5 to -1.5. Other advantage combinations (that capture the key numbers of 3 and 7) I’m considering for NFL Week 10 include the Browns from 2.5 to 8.5 at the Patriots, Vikings from 3 to 9 at the Chargers, Eagles from 2.5 to 8.5 at the Broncos and Raiders 2.5 to 8.5 vs. the Chiefs.

Good luck today (and every day!).


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