Tuley's Takes Today: Wednesday recap, Thursday picks in Masters, NBA, NHL (4/7)

By Dave Tuley  (VSiN senior reporter) 


Wednesday was a mix of getting some rest from the usual hectic Tuesday of helping put together Point Spread Weekly, plus doing errands in and out of the Tuley’s Takes home office. It was also spent making last-minute Masters and MLB bets and entering contests.

Our bets for the day were a mixed bag as we lost our top play on the Pistons + 9 vs. the Mavericks. The Pistons, who were 17-0-2 ATS in their last 19 games as underdogs, actually led 34-32 after the first quarter, but the Mavericks took a 7-point lead by halftime and then pulled away in the second half for the 131-113 win and cover. That dropped our record to 35-17-1 ATS (67.3 percent) the last 53 days as we lost our top play for the second straight day.

In retrospect, we should have went with our NHL swagger play on the Red Wings + 220 (closed a consensus + 230) as they snapped a 6-game losing streak in their prior game to “get their swagger back” and then beat the Jets 3-1 on Wednesday night. That sweet payoff helped us pretty much push for the day, though we also split our NHL First-Period Over parlay to lose that bet. I hope readers only bet a small parlay on those as I explained that I didn’t like either as a straight bet and just recommended a small parlay for those who wanted action in case they both came in.

Let’s recap the rest of Wednesday’s betting results and then hopefully we have more solid plays for Thursday, a day highlighted by MLB opening day and the first day of the Masters. Unfortunately, I don’t like any of the underdogs on opening day. In PSW, I listed a team in each division that I would be looking to back as dogs early in the season, but all three in action on Thursday (Cardinals, Padres and Angels) are favored. A three-team parlay pays around 3-1, so I’ll probably do that, but I like other bets better in the other sports on the menu.

Wednesday’s recaps

NBA: Faves went undefeated at 6-0 SU on Wednesday night, but 5-1 ATS as the Suns (+ 7) covered in a 113-109 loss at the Clippers in the last game of the night after trailing by 39 points. The Mavericks (-9 at Pistons), Nets (-7 at Knicks), Hawks (-10.5 vs. Wizards), Celtics (-7.5 at Bulls) and Jazz (-15.5 vs. Thunder) all won and covered. Unders went 4-2.

NHL: Dogs went 3-2 with the upsets by the Red Wings (+ 230 in 3-1 win at Jets), Canucks (+ 160 in 5-1 win at Golden Knights) and Capitals (+ 130 in 4-3 win vs. Lightning). Over/Unders split 2-2-1 with the push coming in the Flames' 4-2 win at the Ducks with a betting total of 6 goals.

Thursday’s Takes

Tiger Woods Under 74.5 -125 (Circa): Don’t forget he has an early tee time of 10:34 a.m. ET/7:34 a.m. PT. Other books have this at Under 73.5 for Tigers’ first-round score with lower juice, so shop around for the price you like best. I also wrote in PSW that I bet Woods at 60-1 to win the Masters just in case, so I definitely believe he’ll contend. And if he does, he needs a solid first round so I expect him to be around par 72 or a few strokes lower. I’m hoping to win back my future bet and have a freeroll for the weekend. Betting the first round also removes the uncertainty of whether he’ll get fatigued over the weekend as he just has to navigate one time around his favorite course that he knows so well.

Magic + 13.5 at Hornets: This is a swagger play as the Magic snapped a 6-game losing streak the other night and now get more than double digits their next time out. I normally would have made this my Best Bet of the day, but I’m a little less confident in these plays this last week of the NBA season.

More swagger/anti-swagger: For those following these plays (since we’ve been doing so well with them overall), I do want to mention 2 more plays for Thursday, though I’ll be passing myself as they’re both favorites. In the NHL, the Blue Jackets are -130 vs. the Flyers after snapping a 7-game losing streak last time out. In the NBA, the Grizzlies had their 7-game winning streak snapped, so the play is against them with the Nuggets -3. Again, I’m just mentioning these for those who are curious.

Parlay Flyers-Blue Jackets 1P Over 1.5 -170/Canadiens-Devils 1P Over 1.5 -170: We get our preferred 1P Over teams back in action on Thursday. These are our two top plays, though again make sure you don’t have to go Over 2 goals.

Good luck today (and every day!).


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