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Tuley's Takes Today: Wednesday recap; Thursday MLB, NFL picks (10-7)

By Dave Tuley  ( senior reporter) 

October 7, 2021 05:20 AM

All good things must come to an end – and I know I wrote that last week when we backed off the Cardinals after eight straight wins on them – but this time it’s really true as they failed to come through for us last night in their 3-1 loss to the Dodgers in the NL wild-card game.

But we’re fine with the loss here in the Tuley’s Takes home office as we believe it was clear it was a great bet as the Cardinals led 1-0 despite facing Max Scherzer and their true odds of pulling off the upset were clearly much better than the 2-1 odds we received.

Let’s move on, but first let’s give the general recap last night from our Twitter account @ViewFromVegas and then our best baseball bet from Thursday’s AL divisional playoff games (we're passing on the Red Sox-Rays opener) as well as updates to our NFL picks, starting with Thursday’s attractive matchup with the Rams visiting the Seahawks (for all of my “takes” on the entire Week 5 card, check out my regular “Tuley’s Takes" column in Point Spread Weekly).

Wednesday’s recap

MLB: Dodgers beat Cardinals 3-1 in National League wild-card game on two-run walk-off HR by Chris Taylor in bottom of the ninth inning. The Dodgers closed as -227 home favorites and also covered on run line -110. The game stayed Under the betting total of 7.5 runs in the pitchers’ duel. Home teams won both wild-card games. Fave/dogs split 1-1. Unders went 1-0-1 with the Push in Tuesday’s AL wild-card game. 

Thursday’s Take (plus NFL look-ahead)

Astros (-1.5 + 150) vs. White Sox: I expect this series to be pretty tight (and can already tell you I like the White Sox in Game 2 with Luis Giolito vs. Framber Valdez), but I give the edge to Houston in Game 1 with Lance McCullers Jr. (2-0 vs. Chicago this year) over Lance Lynn (0-1 vs. Houston). Since I’m allergic to chalk, we’ll go with the run line to turn the Astros from favorites to underdogs. The Astros are 5-2 in the season series and actually above .500 at 4-3 on the run line. 

And let’s give our rundown of our best bets from Point Spread Weekly as we update our recommendations on when to make these plays as the lines move during the week.

Seahawks kicking off week on Thursday Night Football with 6-point teasers at + 8 and linking with whatever combinations you like from among these plays: Football Team from + 1.5 to + 7.5 vs. the Saints, , Browns + 1.5 to + 7.5 at the Chargers, Cowboys -7 down to -1 vs. the Giants, Bills + 2.5 to + 8.5 at the Chiefs and Ravens -7 down to -1 vs. the Colts. Note: I originally had Vikings from -8 down to -2 in this list in Point Spread Weekly and in this column yesterday (so hopefully some of you already bet it), but the books have raised the line to -9 to discourage teasers like this.

Jets + 3 vs. Falcons in London

Football Team teased up to + 7.5 vs. Saints

Lions + 8 at Vikings (up to 9.5 now), though also using Vikings in teasers

Bengals + 3 vs. Packers

Browns teased up to + 7.5 at Chargers

Giants + 7 at Cowboys, though using Cowboys -1 in teasers

Bills + 3 at Chiefs if you can still get it, though also teasing up to + 8.5

Colts + 7 at Ravens on MNF, though using Ravens -1 in teasers

Good luck today (and every day!).





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