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Tuley's Takes Today: Wednesday recap; Thursday MLB, football picks (10-14)

By Dave Tuley  (VSiN.com senior reporter) 

Logan_Webb

We were going through a bit of withdrawals in the Tuley’s Takes home office on Wednesday with no MLB playoff games, but at least we had the second day of the NHL season to keep us entertained.

Unfortunately, we lost our 1st Period Over parlay as we split with Rangers-Capitals losing and Blackhawks-Avalanche winnings. The Capitals only led the Rangers 1-0 at the end of 20 minutes, though I consider it a bit of a bad beat because I was “watching” on the ESPN app because I picking up my son from band practice and got a flat tire when the Capitals took a 2-0 lead just 9:22 into the first period. I even took a screenshot and sent it to some friends, but I guess the goal was overturned (as of this writing late Wednesday night, I still haven’t seen highlights that included the goal/non-goal or a game story that saw fit to mention it after Alex Ovechkin scored two goals in the Capitals’ eventual 5-1 victory).

Oh, well, that’s my cross to bear. We’ll still look for spots to play these 1st Period Overs.

Let’s get to the general betting recap from last night, and then look forward to Thursday’s action, which includes Game 5 of the National League Division Series between the Dodgers and Giants and, of course, Thursday Night Football with the Buccaneers visiting the Eagles. I’ll also update some of our best bets for the weekend.

Wednesday’s recaps

NHL: Home teams went 5-0 on Wednesday night. Favorites went 3-1 on the night with Rangers-Capitals closing consensus pick-'em. The lone upset was by the Ducks (+ 125 home underdogs vs. the Jets). Unders went 3-0-2 Wednesday with pushes in Rangers-Capitals (6) and Blackhawks-Avalanche (6) games after Overs were 2-0 on opening night on Tuesday.

MLB: No playoff games on Wednesday, but just sharing the betting results so far this postseason. Favorites lead 12-4 so far in this round. The Giants were two of the winning underdogs in Games 1 and 3 (the others were the Red Sox and Braves in their Game 2 road wins). Home teams lead 11-5 in this round. Overs lead 9-7 overall.

Thursday’s Takes

Dodgers-Giants Under 6.5 + 105: This game opened pick-’em. I’m pulling for the Giants as I have a close friend with future-book tickets on them. The Giants have actually been bet to short -110 home favorites with San Fran’s Logan Webb (12-3, 2.83 ERA, 1.08 WHIP) facing L.A.’s Julio Urias (21-3, 2.93 ERA, 1.01 WHIP). This should be a pitchers’ duel and I’m taking the Under. It’s set low, but this is a case where I don’t think they could have set it low enough. These two faced each other three times this year, the first went Over but the last two stayed Under. If you want to pay for the added insurance in case the total runs lands on 7, there are plenty of books offering Under 7 -120.

Buccaneers -1 in teasers to kick off NFL Week 6 and tied to our recommended 6-point teasers that also capture the key numbers of 3 and 7 (mix and match as you see fit): Chiefs -1 at Washington (several books down to Chiefs -6.5, so you can now tease down to -0.5), Panthers + 7 vs. Vikings, Chargers + 9 at Ravens and Cardinals + 8.5 at Browns (many books up to Browns -3, so you can tease the Cards up to 9).

 

And here’s our college and pro football plays from Point Spread Weekly. For the reasoning behind why I like these plays, check out PSW. We’ll update these the rest of the week:

Thursday: Georgia South + 3.5 at South Alabama: Bet this ASAP as a lot of books have gone to 3.

Thursday: Navy + 10.5 at Memphis: There’s been some movement to 11, so wait for this line to peak. 

Virginia Tech + 5 vs. Pittsburgh: Number looking pretty solid.

Northwestern + 2 vs. Rutgers: Some books outside Vegas have gone to added juice on Rutgers -2, so wait to see if we can get Northwestern + 2.5 or 3.

TCU + 13,5 at Oklahoma: Wait to see if we can get 14 points.

Auburn + 4 at Arkansas: Also wait to see if it goes higher.

Jaguars + 3 vs. Dolphins in London: Several books have gone to 3.5, so grab the Jaguars now if you’re with me (shop around as some books charging -120 to get the hook).

Texans + 10 at Colts: Some books have gone to 10.5, so grab that if you can, especially as I’ve seen some books at 9.5.

Bears + 4.5 vs. Packers: Line looks pretty solid.

Chargers + 3 at Ravens, plus Chargers in teasers: Grab the + 3 at -110 if you can.

Giants + 10.5 vs. Rams: I picked this in Point Spread Weekly, assuming Mike Glennon was going to have to start for the Giants. Reports are saying that Daniel Jones might clear concussion protocol in time and be able to play, so the line has dipped to 9.5. I prefer if he does play and would still bet it at + 8.5 or higher.

Raiders + 4 at  Broncos: The 4’s appeared the other day and disappeared just as quickly. Still a play at 3.5.

Seahawks + 5 at Steelers: Looking pretty solid.

Good luck today (and every day!).

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