Tuley's Takes Today: Wednesday recap, Thursday best bets (9-23)

By Dave Tuley  (VSiN.com senior reporter) 

September 23, 2021 05:35 AM

Welcome to Thursday’s edition of Tuley’s Takes Today. We can’t believe the football weekend is already here, though we don’t mind in the Tuley’s Takes home office if baseball is going to continue to be so good to us.

We had another winner Wednesday with the Cardinals coming through for us for the third straight day, and we can’t believe we continue to get plus-money on them..

Let’s get to the general betting recap before trying to continue our (their) winning streak, plus adding football back to the mix.

Wednesday’s betting recap

Cardinals (+ 115) beat Brewers 10-2 on Wednesday night for their 11th straight win. Favorites went 7-5 with the day’s biggest upset by the Rockies (+ 175 vs. Dodgers). Faves lead 1,307-897 (59.3 percent) on the season with 53 PKs. Overs went an impressive 9-3 (after Unders went 11-3-1 on Tuesday), cutting Unders’ slim lead on the season to 1,079-1,071-101 (50.2 percent).

Contest Corner

The Week 3 lines for the Westgate SuperContest are HERE and on Twitter @SuperBookNV. For those playing the contest or following along, they’re always posted by 5 p.m. PT Wednesday at the latest, though it’s usually at least an hour earlier on the website. The SuperContest wraps up its first in-season mini-contest this week (they have six 3-week contests and three 6-week contests this year) with $75,000 for first place, $25,000 for second place and $5,000 for third place.

Circa Sports Million III lines come out just after 10 a.m. PT on Thursdays HERE and on Twitter @CircaSports. 

Thursday’s Takes

Cardinals (+ 105) at Brewers: If it ain’t broke, don’t fix it. The Cardinals have won the first three games of this season as underdogs and are going for the sweep as consensus + 105 dogs today (and as high as + 110 at William Hill books. We get Adam Wainwright (16-7, 2.89 ERA, 1.03 WHIP) vs. Adrian Houser (9-6, 3.43 ERA, 1.29 WHIP).

Panthers-Texans Over 43: I didn’t make a best bet on Thursday night’s NFL game in Point Spread Weekly, though I did pick the Panthers -8 and Over 44 on the VSiN NFL Consensus page where I’m forced to make a pick. As a dog-or-pass bettor, I’m not going to lay the points with Carolina, but with the total down to 43 points, I’m going to bet the Over 43. As I’m sure you’re aware, the Over is 6-0 in prime-time games so far this season (Thursday, Sunday and Monday nights). I’m not one to blindly follow trends like these, but I’m willing to jump on with the total this low. It’s been driven down by the fact Davis Mills is being thrust into the starting QB role for the Texans. The Panthers’ defense has been impressive so far this season, but the fact is they’ve only had to face the Jets and the Saints, who were travel-weary and also dealing with massive COVID issues. If this number was around 47 or 48, I’d pass, but just can’t resist going Over such a low number as Sam Darnold should have a field day spreading the ball around to Christian McCaffrey, DJ Moore and Robby Anderson.

Good luck today (and every day!).

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