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Tuley's Takes Today: Wednesday recap, Thursday best bets (9-16)

By Dave Tuley  (VSiN.com senior reporter) 

September 16, 2021 02:56 AM
Taylor_Heinicke

Welcome to Day 4 of our new column, “Tuley’s Takes Today.” It seems like just yesterday that we were watching the end of the Raiders’ wild win over the Ravens on Monday Night Football and worrying about suffering from withdrawals after a weekend of wall-to-wall football, but here we are already with NFL Week 2 kicking off with Thursday Night Football.

We suffered our first loss in this new column as the Orioles (+ 165) fell 4-3 to the Yankees. We believed we were getting value before the game and still feel good about the wager despite the loss. The Orioles actually grabbed a 3-2 lead in the bottom of the eighth inning but were unable to hold the lead in the top of the ninth. We also almost lucked out as the final inning was played in a downpour. If the game had been called before the ninth was completed, the score would have reverted to the last completing inning and the Orioles (and our bet) would have been declared the winner. Unfortunately, the umpires chased the Baltimore grounds crew off the field and completed the game.

Let’s start another winning streak.

Wednesday’s betting recaps

MLB (from Twitter @ViewFromVegas): The Padres (slight -104 underdogs) beat the Giants 9-6 late Wednesday, snapping the Giants' 9-game winning streak. Favorites went 8-7 on the day and lead 1,253-861 (59.3%) on the season with 51 games closing pick-’em The biggest upsets of the day were the Tigers (+ 210 vs. Brewers), Angels (+ 193 at White Sox) & Rockies (+ 183 at Braves).

More MLB: Overs went 7-4-4 on Wednesday (yep, that's right, 4 pushes) as Rays-Blue Jays (9), Astros-Rangers (9), Red-Pirates (9) and Diamondbacks-Dodgers (8) all landed on the closing total. Unders' slim lead has been cut to 1,032-1,029-98 (50.1%), just three games over .500 on the season.

Thursday’s Takes

Padres (+ 165) vs. Giants: We won with the Giants on the run line on both Monday and Tuesday as they won their eighth and ninth straight games but passed on them on Wednesday. It was tempting to keep riding them, but I didn’t feel good about them going with a bullpen game against Joe Musgrove. Sometimes the best betting decisions are when you pass and save money. Now, with them having their winning streak snapped, we have what we call an “anti-swagger play.” I wrote about this a couple of times in Point Spread Weekly over the summer. If a team is on a losing streak (we usually go with a streak of at least six games) and snaps it, it’s said that they get their “swagger” back and we bet them in their next game. The same thing goes when a team has a winning streak snapped as they lose their swagger, so the play is against the Giants on Thursday in their game that starts at 3:45 p.m. ET/12:45 p.m. PT. Oddsmakers didn’t have a line on this game as of late Wednesday night, so I wrote that I would update this morning. I thought we would get around + 140 with Pierce Johnson (3-3, 2.98 ERA, 1.21 WHIP) starting for the Padres against the Giants’ Kevin Gausman (14-5, 2.54 ERA, 1.01 WHIP), but it's widely available around + 165 as of 11:30 a.m. ET/8:30 p.m. PT after opening even higher (I hope it was overnight readers who jumped on the earlier bargain and bet it down!). The current price is still bettable for me.

And we still have this left over from Tuesday’s column (both lines are still widely available, though you’re more likely to be laying heavier juice like -120 on both sides):

Washington -3/New York + 3.5: I made these plays Monday night here in Vegas for the Thursday night Week 2 opener, and I see other jurisdictions with different shops offering these different numbers. I’m basically just risking the vig and hoping that Washington wins by exactly a field goal so I win one bet and push the other. If you like one side better than the other (I actually think Washington is the right side), you can weight my bets to give yourself a decision one way or the other.

 

Good luck today (and every day!).

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