Tuley's Takes Today: Wednesday recap, Thursday best bets (1/13)

By Dave Tuley  (VSiN.com senior reporter) 

January 13, 2022 05:01 AM
Shesterkin

Wednesday was a day to catch up on some sleep after a long weekend (and long NFL regular season) and after getting my regular Tuley’s Takes column done for Point Spread Weekly and my recap of the Circa Sports Million.

After dragging myself out of bed to pick up the kids at the bus stop in the afternoon, I was able to catch our best bets of the day with some NHL First-Period Overs, but unfortunately we split those. Our secondary play came first with the Kraken-Stars and was an easy winner as the Stars bolted out to a 3-1 lead in the first 20 minutes (went Over 1.5 in less than 8.5 minutes), but we lost our supposed top play as the Maple Leafs, who had a 9-game 1P Over streak, didn’t manage a goal and allowed just 1 to the Coyotes as they trailed just 1-0 after the opening period. We haven’t lost a lot lately with our best bets here, so I didn’t like that feeling.

But where I really fell asleep on the job the past 24 hours was I wish I had bet more NBA and college underdogs as they were barking big time on Wednesday as you’ll see when we go through the nightly recaps. We’ll then try to get back on the winning track for Thursday.

Wednesday’s recaps

NBA: Underdogs went an impressive 7-2 SU and 8-1 ATS on the night with upsets by the Rockets (+ 7 at Spurs), Hornets (+ 5.5 at 76ers), Cavaliers (+ 5 at Jazz), Kings (+ 3.5 vs. Lakers), Knicks (+ 2.5 vs. Mavericks), Heat (+ 2.5 at Hawks) and Celtics (+ 1 at Pacers).

More NBA: In addition to the 7 outright upsets, the Magic (+ 6.5) covered in a 112-106 loss at the Wizards. The only favorite to cover on the night was the Nets (-1.5) in a 138-112 rout at the Bulls. Overs went 5-4. 

CBB: No. 14 Villanova beat No. 17 Xavier 64-60, but it was an upset as Nova closed as a 2-point road underdog. No. 12 LSU beat Florida 64-58 and it was also an upset as LSU closed as a 3-point road dog. No. 10 Michigan State beat Minnesota 71-69, but did NOT cover as an 11.5-point home favorite. 

NHL: Faves went 2-1 Wednesday as the Bruins (-370) routed the Canadiens 5-1 as the game pushed on the Over/Under of 6 goals) and the Stars (-200) beat the Kraken 5-2 as that game went Over 7. The upset was by the Coyotes (+ 260) in a 2-1 win vs. the Maple Leafs as that game stayed Under 6. Over/Unders split 1-1-1.

Thursday’s Takes

Rangers-Sharks First-Period Under -1.5 -110: Let’s try to cross up the bookmakers a little here after beating them lately with NHL 1P Overs with this 1P Under. The early lines I’m seeing on this is pick-’em (-110 each way), but the Rangers are tops in the league with 1P Unders at 26-11 while the Sharks are 21-17 for a combined hit rate of 62.7 percent. Of course, we just need to hit 52.3 percent to beat the standard -110 vig, so that’s a bigger edge than we usually get with 1P Overs, If you’re looking to parlay as we often do with NHL 1P plays, my favorite 1P Over of the day is Blue Jackets-Hurricanes 1P Over 1.5 -125 at DraftKings as Columbus has hit 7 straight 1P Overs and is 24-10 on season with the Hurricanes at 15-17 for a combined 39-27 (59.2 percent), so let’s call that a co-best bet.

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