Tuley's Takes Today: Wednesday recap, Thursday best bet, plus football picks (11/18)

By Dave Tuley  (VSiN.com senior reporter) 

November 18, 2021 06:00 AM
Ricky_Rubio

Wednesday was mostly spent catching up on errands outside the Tuley’s Takes home office and then watching the ole alma mater, Northern Illinois, in some exciting MACtion.

Meanwhile, my best bet was cruising along as the Bulls (+ 1.5) led the Blazers 63-48 at halftime as it was shaping up as a pretty great day. Northern Illinois came through with a 33-27 victory in overtime to go from worst-to-first in the MAC West and clinch a spot in the MAC Championship Game, but the Bulls somehow blew their lead and failed to cover in a 112-107 loss to take some of the shine off the night.

We got through hump day and now turn our attention to the football weekend, but let’s first recap the overall betting action on Wednesday as well as taking another crack at an NBA underdog on Thursday night.

Wednesday’s recaps

CFB: Northern Illinois beat Buffalo 33-27 in OT to clinch  the MAC West and earn a spot in the MAC Championship Game. The Huskies covered as 2-point road favorites and the game went Over 59 points thanks to the winning TD in overtime. Central Michigan (2.5-point road fave) routed Ball State 37-17  as the game stayed Under the total of 57. So, faves were 2-0 on the night and MACtion mid-week faves/dogs are now 8-8 ATS this season. Over/Unders split 1-1, so MACtion mid-week Unders lead 3-2 this week, but Overs still lead 10-6 this year and are 58-25-2 (69.9 percent) over the last 5 years.

NBA: Favorites went 9-2 SU on Wednesday but only 6-4-1 ATS with the push on the Nets (-10 in 109-99 win vs. Cavaliers). Upsets were by Pistons (+ 6.5 vs. the Pacers) and Magic (+ 11.5 at Knicks). Unders went 9-1-1 with the push in the Pelicans-Heat (211) game and improved to 136-85-3 (61.5 percent) on the season. 

CBB: George Mason upset No. 20 Maryland 71-66 as a 9.5-point underdog + 425 on the money line as the game stayed Under the total of 141.5). The rest of the Top 25 teams in action won and covered, except for No. 8 Texas (-21.5), which failed to cover in its 62-49 win vs. Northern Colorado. 

 

NHL: Faves/dogs split 1-1 with the Capitals-Kings game closing pick-'em in the Capitals' 2-0 win. The lone upset was by the Blackhawks (+ 130 in 4-2 win at the Kraken). The lone winning fave was the Avalanche (-155 in 4-2 win at Canucks). Over/Unders went 1-1-1 with the push on Avalanche-Canucks (6)..

Thursday’s Takes

Cavaliers + 8 vs. the Warriors: The Warriors are on a roll and coming off a big win at the Nets, but this is a letdown spot (plus Stephen Curry is listed as questionable with a hip injury, so maybe we catch a break and he rests). But this is more of a bet on the Cavs as they’ve been overachieving this season at 9-7 but an even more impressive 10-5-1 ATS as they’re led by Darius Garland (16.8 points and 6.7 assists per game) and Ricky Rubio (14.7 points per game).

These are my best bets from Point Spread Weekly as we update them based on how the lines are moving with advice on whether to bet right away or wait.

CFB

Friday: Southern Mississippi + 16.5 at Louisiana Tech: There are still some 16.5s, so grab them as most books are down to 16 or even 15.5.

South Alabama + 28 at Tennessee: This has drifted up to +  28.5, so wait to see how high it goes.

Florida State + 2.5 at Boston College: This is dropping, so grab the best line you can.

Louisiana + 4.5 at Liberty: This is pretty solid at 4.5, but I’d grab ASAP  instead of risking missing out on it.

Wake Forest + 4.5 at Clemson: Grab 4.5 if you can as most books are down to 4. 

Baylor pick-’em at Kansas State: Some books have gone to K-State -1, so I’d wait to see if it goes higher. 

NFL

Lions + 10 at Browns: This was made before knowing that Jared Goff was questionable (of course, Baker Mayfield is also banged up). I’m waiting until we have a clearer idea of who is going to be able to start.

Colts + 7.5 at Bills: Most books are down to + 7 even-money, but grab 7.5 if you can.

Washington + 3.5 at Panthers: Try to grab the hook at -110 if you can, though most books are at -120.

Cowboys + 2.5 at Chiefs: Some books have gone to -120 on the Chiefs -2.5, so I’m holding out hope that we can get + 3.

Giants + 11 at Buccaneers: BetMGM has dipped to 10.5, but I’m still holding out hope that the public bets this higher over the weekend.

Good luck today (and every day!).

 

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