Tuley's Takes Today: Wednesday recap, Thursday and more football picks (9-30)

By Dave Tuley  (VSiN.com senior reporter) 

September 30, 2021 05:43 AM
JaMarr_Chase

We told you so!

I hate to say that (oh, who am I kidding? I love saying that!).

Sports betting is all about predicting the future, so we took a lot of pride here in the Tuleys’ Takes home office when I wrote yesterday that it was time to back off on the Cardinals despite winning eight straight bets on them during their 17-game winning streak (all at plus-money as we bet them on the run line when they were favorites) because they had clinched the National League’s second wild-card spot and were locked into that spot. Basically, they had nothing to play for and their top priority was to start preparing for the one-game playoff next week against the Dodgers or Giants.

I heard from several readers that they took that as a sign to bet the Brewers and thanked us after their 4-0 victory last night. I didn’t think that was a good bet, but happy if I helped people cash some tickets. Others cashed on my suggestion to bet a Giants-Dodgers parlay that hit when the Dodgers rallied late to beat the Padres 11-9 to remain two games behind the Giants, who won 1-0.

Unfortunately, the play I went with instead of any of those was a Yankees-Red Sox parlay. The Red Sox rolled 6-0 over the Orioles, but the Yankees fell behind 2-0 and then 4-0 to the Blue Jays, rallied to tie the score 5-5 in the seventh before losing 6-5. It would have been perfect to replace a potential losing bet with a winning one, but at least I had the moral victory!

And hopefully it was a lesson in betting streaks.

Let’s move to the general recap of last night’s action and then continue our look forward to the weekend’s football action starting with Thursday Night Football.

Wednesday’s betting recaps

MLB: Brewers (-102) beat Cardinals 4-0 on Wednesday to snap St. Louis’ 17-game winning streak, though it wasn't much of an upset after Cards clinched the NL’s second wild-card spot on Tuesday. Blue Jays (+ 102) beat the Yankees to tighten up the AL wild-card chase as the Red Sox (-270) & Mariners (-114) also won.

More MLB: favorites & underdogs went 2-2 in those games on Wednesday. Fave went 9-6 overall with the biggest upset by the Marlins (+ 158) at Mets to snap their seven-game losing streak. Faves lead 1,367-929 (59.5 percent) on the season with 55 games closing pick-’ems. Unders went 9-6 on the day, increasing their slim lead on the season to 1,132-1,111-102 (50.5 percent). 

Thursday’s Takes

Marlins (+ 170) at Mets: Normally, I would fade the Cardinals after having their long winning streak snapped (an “anti-swagger play” for regular readers”), but with the Brewers around -102 to -110 on Thursday, I don’t see any value as both teams are preparing for the playoffs. I’m also not thrilled with an anti-swagger play against the Yankees (who just had their seven-game winning streak snapped) with the Blue Jays -130. Instead, I’ll go with a swagger play on the Marlins (+ 170 at the South Point in Nevada and DraftKings in other states) after snapping their seven-game losing streak against the Mets.

Bengals to kick off NFL Week 4 teasers: As I wrote in Point Spread Weekly, I’m not willing to back the Jaguars again and feel the -7.5 is too short in this game, but feel the best way to bet this is to tease the Bengals down to -1.5 in six-point teasers and combine them with other advantage teasers on Sunday that go through the key numbers of 3 and 7 points. QB Joe Burrow, RB Joe Mixon and rookie WR Ja’Marr Chase should have a field day (night?) against the Bengals, but I never like laying any points let alone more than a touchdown, but with the teaser we’re basically just counting on them winning the game. The other games I’m looking to use the Bengals with include the Falcons + 7.5 vs. the Washington Football Team, Titans -1.5 at the Jets, Vikings + 8 vs. the Browns, Saints -1.5 vs. the Giants, Chiefs -1 at the Eagles and Ravens + 7 (this line has gone down from + 1.5 to + 1, so you would need a 6.5-point teaser to get it to 7.5, so if you like this one you better bet it ASAP).

Here are some other games we recommend betting sooner rather than later:

Southern Miss (+ 3) at Rice: We wrote about this in Wednesday’s edition of Tuley’s Takes Today and we hope you heeded the advice as the 3’s are all gone across the country.

Falcons (+ 1.5) vs. Washington: This isn’t as pressing since it’s not on a key number, but we think this line could flip to the Falcons being favored. The Falcons are available at + 2 at DraftKings books and several others at + 1.5.

Lions (+ 3) at Bears: This line has been dropping and looks like it will continue to drop, so grab + 3 while you still can.

Ravens + 1 at Broncos: We’re adding the aforementioned Ravens to this list as we’re seeing the 1.5 all gone and some books even moving to pick-’em. We could definitely see a change in favorites here.

Good luck today (and every day!).

 

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