Tuley's Takes Today: Wednesday betting recaps, updated stats, Thursday Best Bets in MLB, NFL 8/18

By Dave Tuley  (VSiN.com senior reporter) 


Wednesday is usually a day to do some chores and run some errands (and I had my share as I had to get more shock for the pool – and there’s still a shortage out there – and exchange a water pool for our refrigerator as I bought the wrong type), but I was also working on our VSiN NFL Betting Guide (due out soon, so hope you’re finishing up with the College Football Betting Guide).

I was trying to get as much done Wednesday because I have to take my daughter Peyton to the airport at 3:30 a.m. so she can fly up to Reno and move into her dorm. Then, I have to get up at 6:30 a.m. to take my son Maddux to the bus stop before getting back to work.

So, I’m burning the candle at both ends here in the Tuley’s Takes home office, but you know what they say: If you love your job, you never work a day in your life!

And I’m loving my work right now as I won my Best Bet Wednesday on the A’s 1st 5 + 135 (I got + 150 at Circa) as they led the Rangers 3-1 through 5 innings. For those betting my picks for the full games (sometimes it works out, sometimes it doesn’t), the A’s went on to be one of only 3 underdogs to win outright on the night, so that makes me feel good to search out the rare live dog.

We also won our 2nd play on the Rays 1st 5 + 110 at the Yankees as they led 3-0 after the first 5 innings. I’m glad I didn’t bet the Rays’ full-game ML as the Yankees rallied to tie the game 4-4 after 9 innings, and then after the Rays scored 3 runs in the top of the 10th, the Yankees won 8-7 in dramatic walk-off fashion on Josh Donaldson’s grand slam. It was a sickening loss for the dog even though I didn’t have a play on them but I felt the pain for anyone who might have taken the Rays for another upset.

Let’s recap the rest of Wednesday’s (full-game) betting results in MLB – and it was a chalk-fest – and then look for more 1st 5 plays on Wednesday while also jumping in the NFL Preseason Week 2 picks for the weekend that starts on Thursday night.

Wednesday’s recaps

MLB: Faves went 12-3 Wednesday, though Yankees (-131) needed to rally twice (down 4-0 early and 7-4 in 10th) to beat Rays 8-7 in 10 innings on a walk-off grand slam by Josh Donaldson. The upsets were by the Diamondbacks (+ 205 in 3-2 win at Giants), A's (+ 152 in 7-2 win at Rangers) and Reds (+ 142 in 1-0 win vs. Phillies). Road teams went 9-6. Unders 8-6-1 with the push in OAK-TEX (9).

More MLB: Faves lead 1,051-686 SU (60.5 percent) on the season with 26 pick-'ems (faves usually win around 59 percent; still ahead of pace; gap had been narrowing but now well over 60 percent). Home teams lead 932-830 (52.9 percent, usually closer to 54 percent but on the rise). Unders lead 864-803-93 (51.8 percent).

NFL preseason (ICYMI): Dogs finished 8-7 SU and 9-6 ATS in Preseason Week 1 with 1 pick-'em (Dolphins-Buccaneers). Home/road teams split 8-8 SU with home teams leading 9-7 ATS. Overs went 13-3. Including neutral-site HOF Game the week before, faves/dogs are tied 8-8 SU overall with 1 PK but dogs lead 9-7 ATS. Overs lead 14-3.

Thursday’s Takes

Diamondbacks 1st 5 + 120 at Giants: The D-backs rallied late to beat the Giants last night and I look for them to carry that momentum into the first half of Thursday afternoon’s game in San Fran. Plus, we get Zac Gallen (8-2, 2.94 ERA, 0.99 WHIP) on the mound for the D-backs and he’s been very good to us this summer including on July 27 when he outdueled the Giants’ Logan Webb (his counterpart on Thursday) as the Diamondbacks led 4-2 after 5 innings on the way to a 5-3 victory.

Other MLB plays: With faves going 13-3 Wednesday with most of these same matchups, I’m not too high on many other dogs. For those who have been following my swagger and anti-swagger plays, the Braves are fadeable in an anti-swagger spot after having their 9-game winning streak snapped on Wednesday. I’d like to take the Mets against them, but the only line I saw overnight was the Mets -122. That’s not too high of a price to lay with Jacob deGrom on the mound, but I would wait until the morning to see the lowest price we could lay if playing the chalk. What I might do is take the Mets on the -1.5 run line at a nice plus-price.

Here are my NFL Preseason Week 2 plays, starting with the standalone Thursday night game with the Bears visiting the Seahawks. My reasoning for these plays are in my column in Point Spread Weekly, though we post updates here with the more current lines:

Thursday: Bears-Seahawks Over 42.5: I gave this out at Over 42.5 in PSW as Drew Lock was expected to start for the Seahawks in his battle for the starting job with Geno Smith. However, Lock tested positive for COVID-19 and is out, so Smith will get to play the first half again. The total was adjusted down to 40 with this news. I don’t like the Over as much with Lock not playing (frankly it was going to be my Best Bet of the day, but I downgraded it and went with the MLB 1st 5 game above), though I’ll probably still make it a small bet on it just in case I was right all along (part of the handicap was the Bears’ offense probably having more success against the Seahawks’ defense).

Friday: Rams + 3 vs. Texans: I hope PSW readers or those who saw these NFL preseason picks in this column yesterday morning were able to grab the 3 with the Rams as it’s down to 2 at most books. I still believe the Rams are the right side.

Saturday: Broncos-Bills Under 42.5: This has also been bet down to 41.5 as the market obviously agrees that we won’t see much from these two offenses.

Sunday: Cardinals + 6.5 vs. Ravens: This line was as high as 7 as oddsmakers were trying to make bandwagon jumpers pay a premium on the Ravens, who have won a preseason record 21 straight games and are 19-2 or 18-2-1 ATS depending on whose betting stats you follow. However, early bettors have agreed with us that the line was set way too high for an exhibition game (even with the Ravens’ streak).

Good luck today (and every day!).

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