Tuley's Takes Today: Wednesday betting recaps, updated MLB stats, Thursday picks 7/28

By Dave Tuley  (VSiN.com senior reporter) 

Logan_Gilbert

I know it seems like I’ve spent hardly any time in the Tuley’s Takes home office this summer, and I was back on the road again on Wednesday as I flew with my daughter Peyton up to Reno for the next two days.

Peyton is my kid that wants to perform on Broadway (and went to New York over spring break for her 18th birthday present and saw “Phantom of the Opera,” “Beetlejuice” and “Hadestown” on Broadway). She’s entering her freshman year at the University of Nevada-Reno and has orientation on Thursday morning.

We flew in a day earlier so we wouldn’t be rushing to get here Thursday morning (and risk having flight delayed, etc.), and the decision to arrive early was even easier when we found out “Hadestown” was being performed at the downtown Pioneer Center on Wednesday night.

That was a Win-Win. Unfortunately, my Best Bets on the Rangers 1st 5 and Diamondbacks 1st 5 was Push-Push as the Rangers and Mariners were tied 1-1 after 5 innings and the Diamondbacks-Giants were tied 2-2. For those playing the full games, the Rangers lost 4-2 and the D-backs won 5-3.

Let’s recap the rest of the Wednesday MLB card and then look for plays on Thursday.

Wednesday’s recaps

MLB: Underdogs went 10-4 on Wednesday with the biggest upsets by the Cardinals (+ 220 in 6-1 win at Blue Jays) and A's (+ 180 in 4-2 win vs. Astros). Mets (-180) beat Yankees 3-2 on Starling Marte’s walk-off single to sweep mini-subway series. Home teams also went 10-4. Unders went 8-3-3 with the pushes in ATL-PHI (9), SD-DET (7) and SF-AZ (8).

More MLB: Faves still lead 867-584 SU (59.8 percent) on the season with 24 pick-'ems (faves usually win around 59 percent; still ahead of pace, but gap has been narrowing as they’re back below 60 percent). Home teams lead 773-702 (52.4 percent, but usually closer to 54 percent). Unders lead 724-679-70 (51.6 percent).

Thursday’s Takes

Mariners 1st 5 + 115 at Astros: After getting 2 pushes on Wednesday, hopefully we can keep progressing to the win column. I know the Astros just swept 3 games from the Mariners last weekend in Seattle, but they just got swept in short 2-game series by the A’s, so no reason the Mariners can’t stick with them early, especially with Logan Gilbert (10-4, 2.77 ERA, 1.15 WHIP) starting. The Mariners are 2-1 this season against the Astros in games Gilbert has started. Meanwhile, the Astros are 1-3 in games Jose Urquidy has started against Seattle, including a 6-3 loss the last time he faced Gilbert. I’m also taking the Rangers again as they’re + 200 at the Angels and should be just a little lower than that for the 1st 5 innings. Shoetai Ohtani is starting for the Angels, but the way they’re playing they shouldn’t be favored by this much against anybody.

Good luck today (and every day!).

 

 

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