Tuley's Takes Today: Wednesday betting recaps, Thursday Best Bets in NFL preseason, MLB 8/11

By Dave Tuley  (VSiN.com senior reporter) 

Belichick_Patricia

Wednesday was another interesting day in and out of the Tuley’s Takes home office.

I got out of the office to go play my last rounds in the slot tournament at the D. I didn’t finish in the money, but it was fun and I look forward to their next tourney next week. I then met a proxy client over at the Circa sportsbook and watched my first bet of the day cash on the Nationals 1st + 145 as the Nats led 1-0 after the first 5 innings, and I felt vindicated on our recent 1st 5 approach as the Cubs ended up rallying to win 4-2 but we already had our win in pocket. Later, I lost my top play of the day on the Rockies 1st 5 + 140 vs. Cardinals (not even close as the Cards scored 5 runs off Kyle Freeland in the top of the 1st inning and led 6-2 after 5), but it was still a productive and profitable day.

Let’s recap the rest of Wednesday’s (full-game) betting results and look for more 1st 5 inning opportunities on Thursday’s MLB card, plus Thursday kicks off NFL Preseason Week 1 and we include updates on the plays we’ve already given out on “The Lookahead” show on Sunday night and in Point Spread Weekly.

Wednesday’s recaps

MLB: Faves went 9-5 Wednesday with upsets by the Rangers (+ 250 in 8-4 win at Astros), Pirates (+ 131 in 6-4 win at Diamondbacks), Royals (+ 130 in 8-3 win vs. White Sox), Angels (+ 115 in 5-4 win at A's) and Mariners (+ 109 in 4-3 win vs. Yankees). Home teams went 8-6. Overs went 9-4-1 with the push in the Mariners’ 4-3 win over the Yankees with a betting total of 7 runs.

More MLB: Faves lead 987-654 SU (60.1 percent) on the season with 25 pick-'ems (faves usually win around 59 percent; still ahead of pace; gap had been narrowing but now back over 60 percent). Home teams lead 880-786 (52.8 percent, usually closer to 54 percent but on the rise). Unders dip to 813-767-83 (51.5 percent).

Thursday’s Takes

Patriots + 1.5 vs. the Giants: This game kicks off the NFL Preseason Week 1. New England coach Bill Belichick is 49-36 ATS (57.6 percent) in preseason games and 9-2 the last three seasons, so he knows how to prepare for these while the Giants’ Brian Daboll has his first head coaching job. In addition, Daboll has already forbidden taping of his practices, so we don’t expect him to show much in the preseason games. I really don’t understand the love for the Giants here in being favored (and the Patriots are up to 2.5 at several books here in Las Vegas (Circa, Westgate, William Hill, Station Casinos), plus DraftKings in states where VSiN’s parent company is licensed. Granted, there were reports that the Giants were going to play most of their starters and the Patriots’ offense was struggling in practice, but I expect more from New England’s newly named offensive coordinator Matt Patricia, especially if Brian Hoyer receives most of the snaps. In addition, rookie Bailey Zappe looks like the type of gunslinger who can excel against backup defenses in preseason games.

Ravens -3.5 vs. Titans: No, I’m not going to defy my dog-or-pass approach and lay the points, but I do feel I should mention this game for those who want to ride the gravy train that is John Harbaugh in the preseason (37-15 ATS, 71.1 percent, and a record 20 consecutive straight-up wins), Personally, I believe that’s too high a tax to pay to lay more than a field goal in a preseason game (or around -180 on the money line), so let the bettor beware.

Tigers 1st 5 + 125 vs. Guardians: This game starts early at 1:10 p.m. ET/10:10 a.m. PT, and I hope the Tigers start out early in support of Garrett Hill. However, this is more of a play against Cleveland starter Zach Plesac (2-10, 4.49 ERA). For my second choice, let’s go with the Orioles 1st 5 + 105 with Dean Kremer (4-3, 3.43 ERA, 1.32 WHIP).

Saturday

Seahawks + 3 at Steelers: Geno Smith is the incumbent to replace Russell Wilson in Seattle, but we’re hearing that former Bronco Drew Lock is having a good camp, so we could have a motivated backup. If they both see considerable time, I give a considerable edge to the Seahawks. Mitch Trubisky is No. 1 on the Steelers’ depth chart, so we don’t see as much of a QB battle there with Mason Rudolph and rookie Kenny Pickett. For future reference, Seattle’s Pete Carroll (26-17, 60.5 percent) and Pittsburgh’s Mike Tomlin (34-24 ATS, 58.6 percent) are both play-on coaches.

Panthers + 3.5 at Commanders: This is an example of how these preseason lines can run as I was able to grab the Panthers + 3.5 before I posted it the other day and it not only was bet down to 3 but is now down to Commanders -1 at most books with Circa even flipping to the Panthers -1. I still recommend taking it if you can still get the Panthers as underdogs or at pick-’em. There are rumors that the Panthers are still shopping for a starting QB, but for now I still like the preseason rotation of Baker Mayfield, Sam Darnold, Matt Corral and P.J. Walker battling for their spots on the roster.

Good luck today (and every day!).

back to news

Subscriber Only News  Vsin Exclusive

View All

Screen_Shot_2022-08-22_at_12.19.15_AM

The Lombardi Line: Bookmakers love parleys, when playing them, you want a mix of favorites and underdogs.

Pro Football Blitz: When you back teams on the raod you want a good running team, when you back teams at home you want a good passing team. With teams on the road usually the underdog, you want a team that can control time of possession like the Tennessee Titans.

 

Screen_Shot_2022-08-22_at_12.19.15_AM

Shaun King: Eagles -6.5 vs Jaguars

Brendan Gaughan: Brad Keselowski Top 3 +600

View new sortable Picks at a Glance page for Pro subscribers

Screen_Shot_2022-08-22_at_12.19.15_AM

Screen_Shot_2022-09-30_at_6.23.35_PM

Betting Splits: Percentage of handle & tickets from DraftKings, updated every 10 minutes. GO HERE.

NFL Power Ratings: 3 sets of numbers from Steve Makinen. GO HERE.

CFB Power Ratings: 3 sets of numbers from Steve Makinen. GO HERE.

View more CFB tools for Pro subscribers

View more NFL tools for Pro subscribers

Close