Tuley's Takes Today: Wednesday betting recaps, Thursday best bets (3/3)

By Dave Tuley  (VSiN.com senior reporter) 

March 3, 2022 05:08 AM
TCU_celebrate

Wednesday was a long day of anticipation in the Tuley’s Takes home office. I spent most of it brushing and draining/refilling our pool to get it ready for the swimming season, along with other errands.

We were trying to distract ourselves from the stress of trying to keep our hot streak going as we were 15-1-1 ATS with our top best bet here in this column the past 17 days. Our best bet for Wednesday was Auburn-Mississippi State Under 140.5 and we even got Under 142.5 during the day as it got bet higher, so we felt better about our best bet when the game started at 6 p.m. PT.

We felt even better when the score was only Auburn 5, Mississippi State 2 at the first TV timeout after the 16-minute mark of the first half and as MSU continued to struggle. Auburn gradually extended its lead and we felt great as Auburn led 40-28 at halftime and we were hoping the Tigers would just coast to victory and we wouldn’t get the “foul-fest or go to overtime” as I stated in my write-up. As most of you probably know, Mississippi State did rally and I texted “NO OT, PLEASE!” to a few of my friends. I clearly had the right side and didn’t want any shenanigans, but was still hopeful that we could still get the Under as the game was tied 61-61 at the end of regulation. However, Auburn, after averaging just over 1.5 points a minute in the first 40 minutes, exploded for 20 points in the extra 5-minute session (4 points per minute) to send the game Over all available totals in an 81-68 victory. came alive in the extra session

That was a brutal Bad Beat, and a terrible way to end our hot streak. But, hey, we’re still 15-2-1 ATS over the last 18 days and – even though we split out NHL 1P Over bets in our parlay – with Tuesday’s results, we’re still up slightly so far this month after an epic February.

We’ll try to get back on the winning track on Thursday, but first let’s recap the rest of the sports betting action from Wednesday. The bummer part of Wednesday was that the other dogs in games involving Top 25 teams all came through as Texas A/M and Creighton pulled outright upsets over Alabama and UConn, respectively, while LSU lost to Arkansas but covered, so there winners available, but I have no regret as I liked the Auburn-MSU Under better than any of those and it should have won.. 

Wednesday’s recaps

NBA: Faves went 6-2 SU but only 4-4 ATS; upsets by the Thunder ( 15.5, 900 money line in 119-107 road win at Nuggets, snapping their 6-game winning streak) & Hornets ( 4 vs. Cavaliers); Heat ( 4.5 at Bucks) & Rockets ( 15 vs. Jazz) covered in losses; Overs 5-3.

CBB: No. 5 Auburn escaped with 81-68 OT win at Mississippi St. to clinch share of SEC regular-season title & ended up covering spread; Creighton ( 4) upset No. 18 UConn 64-62; Texas A&M ( 10) upset No. 25 Alabama 87-81; No. 14 Arkansas (-5.5) beat LSU 77-76 but did NOT cover.

NHL: Underdogs went 2-1 Wednesday w/ Blues-Rangers closing pick-'em in Rangers'  5-3 win; upsets were by the Sabres ( 320 in 5-1 win at Maple Leafs) & Kraken ( 160 in 4-3 win vs. Predators); Stars (-135 in 4-3 win vs. Kings) were only fave to win; Overs went 3-1.

Thursday’s Takes

TCU + 11 at Kansas: I’ll also mention that I strongly considered using Michigan State + 6 at Illinois or Iowa + 1.5 at Michigan in this spot, but the more I looked at all the games the more I fell in love with this side. As I wrote in Point Spread Weekly, a lot of my plays this time of year are on teams that are on the bubble (particularly during conference tournaments), especially against teams that are locks for the NCAA Tournament. Now, TCU might be in the field after back-to-back wins over two ranked teams the past week, including beating Kansas 74-64 on Monday. That’s right, we get TCU as a double-digit dog after just beating the Jayhawks. Kansas has also lost two straight and looks to be coasting late in the season while waiting for the Big Dance.

Senators-Panthers First-Period Over 1.5 -170: As I wrote above, we split our two plays on Wednesday, but for those who like adding these secondary plays, this is the best NHL 1P Over for Thursday. The Senators are on a 20-6 run (all stats from @PSUOtto on Twitter) with 1P Overs and 30-21 overall on the season while the Panthers are on a 19-4 run and 37-16 on the season (combined 67-37, 64.4 percent). If looking to parlay, also look at Oilers-Blackhawks 1P Over -145 and Avalanche-Coyotes 1P Over -155. 

 

Good luck today (and every day!).

back to news

Subscriber Only News  Vsin Exclusive

View All

Screen_Shot_2022-08-22_at_12.19.15_AM

A Numbers Game: Maximize free bets from sportsbooks. Use on ML underdogs.

Follow The Money: NEVER cross the moneyline (0) in teasers. 15 ties since 1990 (8,240 games). That's .18% of games

View tips for Pro subscribers

Screen_Shot_2022-08-22_at_12.19.15_AM

Wes Reynolds: Colts +6 vs. Chiefs

Matt Youmans: Wisconsin +18 vs Ohio State

 
Screen_Shot_2022-08-22_at_12.19.15_AM

Screen_Shot_2022-09-22_at_6.24.17_PM

Betting Splits: Percentage of handle & tickets from DraftKings, updated every 10 minutes. GO HERE.

NFL Power Ratings: 3 sets of numbers from Steve Makinen. GO HERE.

CFB Power Ratings: 3 sets of numbers from Steve Makinen. GO HERE.

View more CFB tools for Pro subscribers

View more NFL tools for Pro subscribers

Close