Wednesday was a day to catch up on chores in the Tuley’s Takes home office, continue getting ready for the resumption of the NBA season and finalizing my picks in my season-long golf pools.
And, of course, we had to get our bet in on our best bet of the day – Mississippi + 16 at No. 3 Auburn – and wait for the game. Mississippi stuck around in the first half but still trailed by 12 at halftime, so I was a little worried, However, the Rebels started the second half with a 9-0 run and even though Auburn built the lead back up to 16 later in the second half, it never exceeded the spread and we cashed despite Mississippi losing 77-64.
That makes us 10-0-1 ATS the last 11 days with our best bet of the day with the lone push coming Tuesday in Villanova’s 71-69 loss at UConn as a 2-point road underdog.
We split our two NHL First-Period Over 1.5 picks with Sabres-Canadiens going Over but Oilers-Lightning stayed Under. The good news is we bet more on Ole Miss than on that 1P Over parlay.
Let’s recap the overall betting results for Wednesday and try to continue our winning ways on Thursday.
CBB: Top 25 teams went 7-0 SU as favorites on Wednesday, but underdogs actually led 4-3 ATS. In the game of the night, No. 11 Providence (-2) outlasted Xavier 99-92 in 3OT and ended up covering the spread. No. 14 Houston (-8.5 in 81-67 win at Tulane) and No. 20 Texas (-8.5 in 75-66 win vs. TCU, though some pushed on a spread of 9) also covered vs. consensus closing lines. The four Top 25 faves that did NOT cover Wednesday night were No. 3 Auburn (-16 in 77-64 win vs. Mississippi), No. 6 Kentucky (-7.5 in 71-66 win vs. LSU), No. 7 Duke (-5.5 in 65-61 win at Virginia) and No. 13 Wisconsin (-5 in 68-67 win at Minnesota).
NHL: Faves went 5-0 SU on Wednesday as there was not a single upset on the night. The Lightning (-194 in 5-3 win vs. Oilers), Avalanche (-240 in 5-2 win at Red Wings) and Canadiens (-115 in 4-0 win vs. Sabres) also covered on the -1.5 puck line. Unders went 3-2.
Nets + 7 vs. Celtics: If you read my regular weekly column in “Point Spread Weekly” (which I’m hoping you do as an all-access VSiN subscriber and use all of our resources at VSiN to help you keep up on everything going on in the sports betting world), I already wrote I was taking the Nets + 5 and it’s nice to see we’re getting even more value heading into game day. This is an anti-swagger play against the Celtics as they had a nine-game winning streak in their last game before the All-Star Break. As we wrote in PSW, we’re not just betting these swagger and anti-swagger plays blindly with the week gap since these teams last played, but it appears most bettors are assuming the Celtics will rebound from their last loss and return to their prior form. However, I’m willing to fade them. In addition, while the Nets are still without Kevin Durant and James Harden, the placeholder players were starting to play better heading into the break and I’m confident they can stay within the number as the season resumes.
Blue Jackets-Panthers First-Period Over 1.5 -210 (or Over 2 -110): Some of the NHL’s hottest 1P teams are playing Thursday after all were off on Wednesday. The Panthers are No. 1 in the league at 35-16 with 1P Overs while the Blue Jackets are No. 3 at 33-17 (all stats according to @PSUOtto on Twitter) for a combined 68-33 (67 percent). I might end up doing a round-robin with the rest of my plays (or just wheeling this top play in 2-teamers) but the other plays are the Wild-Maple Leafs 1P Over 1.5 -195, Devils-Penguins 1P Over 1.5 -155 and Flames-Canucks 1P Over 1.5 -120. The Panthers are on a 20-5 run with 1P Overs, the Flames have five straight 1P Overs and the Canucks are on a 15-5 run.
Tuley noted: For those looking for college basketball plays, I lean to San Diego + 12 vs. Saint Mary’s and Oregon State + 10.5 vs. USC but don’t like either as much as I liked Mississippi last night or as much as the plays above.
Good luck today (and every day!).