Tuley's Takes Today: Wednesday betting recaps; NFL, MLB plays for Thursday 8/4

By Dave Tuley  (VSiN.com senior reporter) 

Josh_McDaniels

Wednesday was a day of catching up on chores around the house (and making room on the kitchen counters for my 3 air fryers after my birthday).

The day’s baseball action started early, which was fun, except that I lost my Best Bet on the Phillies 1st 5 + 115 vs. the Braves as the game was scoreless until the Mets scored in the bottom of the 5th to beat me 1-0, though the Phillies did rally to win 3-1 as + 125 underdogs. I had to wait until later at night (6:30 p.m. PT) for my other 1st 5 wager on the A’s vs. the Angels. That was another pitchers’ duel and it looked like I would win the 1st 5 wager as the A’s got to Shoetai Ohtai for a run in the top of the 4th, but the Angels tied it 1-1 for a push. The A’s did, however, win the game 3-1 as + 200 dogs. I also had a couple of other MLB dogs as I tried fading the Mets as an anti-swagger play as they had their 7-game winning streak snapped on Tuesday, but they routed the Nationals 9-5 to make a loser of my Nationals + 250 wager. But I did hit my swagger play on the Pirates + 190 vs. the Brewers, though it was a sweat as they fell behind 4-0, bounced back to lead 7-4, gave up the lead at 7-7, but then won 8-7 in walk-off fashion in the bottom of the 9th.

All in all, it was a winning day despite losing my supposed top pick. Let’s recap the rest of Wednesday’s (full-game) betting results and look for more 1st 5 inning opportunities on Thursday’s MLB card, plus we have a play on the NFL Hall of Fame Game on Thursday night..

Wednesday’s recaps

MLB: faves went 8-6 on Wednesday w/ biggest upsets by the A's ( 200 in 3-1 win at Angels), Pirates ( 185 in 8-7 win vs. Brewers), Mariners ( 155 in 7-3 win at Yankees) and Orioles ( 140 in 6-3 win at Rangers); home teams went 8-6; Unders 8-6.

More MLB: Faves lead 928-617 SU (60.1 percent) on the season with 25 pick-'ems (faves usually win around 59 percent; still ahead of pace; gap had been narrowing but now back over 60 percent). Home teams lead just 821-749 (52.3 percent, but usually closer to 54 percent). Unders lead 777-719-72 (51.9 percent).

Thursday’s Takes

Raiders-Jaguars Over 32.5 (now 30.5): I posted this Monday after giving it out on "The Lookahead" show on Sunday night. I'm usually an "Under or pass" guy with NFL preseason games, but since Unders have had so much success in recent years (especially with less time for offenses to prepare and get in sync…plus, the Under is 7-2 in the last 9 HOF Games), we believe this total has been shaded a little too low. Now, I gave it out on the show and in this column at Over 32.5, but as you can see everyone is jumping all the Under as it’s now down to 30.5 as of early Tuesday morning. This only makes me like the bet more as we’re being contrarian to the line move. I'm not going nuts, but I think there's value with Josh Daniels obviously emphasizing offense and some quality backup QBs. I know we’re not going to see Derek Carr and Trevor Lawrence, and I was hoping to see former 49ers Nick Mullens (Raiders) and C.J. Beathard (Jaguars) square off, but Beathard is also Out. But the Jaguars are starting Jake Luton (completed 24-of-31 passes in preseason games last year) with Kyle Sloter (2017 preseason stud with the Broncos as he was 31-for-43, 413 yards, 6 TDs and no INTs), so they could have success as well as Stidham and Mullens for the Raiders.

Braves 1st 5 + 100 at Mets: The Braves trail the Mets by just 3.5 games in the NL East, so they’re pretty even teams overall. Carlos Carrasco (11-4, 3.79 ERA, 1.31 WHIP) is great for the Mets, but the Braves’ Kyle Wright (13-4, 2.93 ERA, 1.15 WHIP) is just as good, so we’ll take the Braves as the short dog. For our secondary MLB play, let’s fire back with the A’s/Blackburn 1st 5 + 100 or better at the Angels. I really don’t like any other dogs on Thursday’s card. 

Good luck today (and every day!).

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