Tuley's Takes Today: Wednesday betting recaps, Best Bets in MLB Thursday, weekend football 8/25

By Dave Tuley  (VSiN.com senior reporter) 

Chris_Archer

Wednesday was mostly spent on the road away from the Tuley’s Take home office as I drove my oldest kid, Jordyn, to move into their dorm at Northern Arizona University in Flagstaff, Ariz., and then unpacking all their clothes, microwave, etc.

We had dinner at Galaxy Diner on Route 66 and then I headed back to my hotel to Tweet out Wednesday’s betting results (below) and get ready for Thursday’s trip down 1-17 to the Phoenix valley for lunch at Portillo’s (No. 1 in my VSiN colleague Matt Youmans’ fast-food rankings) and the Def Leppard/Motley Crue/Poison/Joan Jett concert at State Farm Stadium from 4-11 p.m.

I was able to follow my Best Bet of the day on the Orioles 1st 5 vs. the White Sox but it lost as they trailed 2-1 through the first 5 innings. Baltimore starter Spenser Watkins allowed 2 runs in the top of the first inning but otherwise gave us a quality start with just 2 runs in 6 innings; however, the Orioles’ offense let us down.

We didn’t have any other plays as I feared it was going to be a chalky day. Faves ended up 8-6, but not as bad as I thought it would be.

Let’s recap the rest of Wednesday’s (full-game) betting results and then look for more 1st 5 plays on Thursday and then I’ve added my early football plays for the weekend.

Wednesday’s recaps

MLB: Faves went 8-6 Wednesday with the biggest upsets by the Nationals (+ 271 in 3-1 win at Mariners), Cubs (+ 165 in 7-1 win vs. Cardinals), Guardians (+ 145 in 7-0 win at Padres) and Tigers (+ 138 in 6-1 vs. Giants). Home teams went 8-6. Unders 7-5-2 with pushes in LAA-TB (7) and MIN-HOU (8).

More MLB: Faves lead 1,103-728 SU (60.2 percent) on the season with 27 pick-'ems (faves usually win around 59 percent; still ahead of pace; gap had been narrowing but now well over 60 percent). Home teams lead 982-874 (52.9 percent, usually closer to 54 percent but on the rise). Unders lead 912-844-99 (51.9 percent).

NFL (ICYMI): Faves are 18-13 SU overall in the preseason with 2 pick-’ems, but dogs have taken a 15-14-2 ATS lead. Road teams lead 17-15 SU but are tied 15-15-2 ATS (note: neutral-site Hall of Fame Game not included). After starting 8-0 and then dipping to 18-11, the last 4 games have gone Over and they’re back up to 22-11 (66.7 percent) overall.

Thursday’s Takes

Twins 1st 5 + 145 at Astros: Minnesota starter Chris Archer is just 2-6 on the season but his stats (4.02 ERA, 1.26 WHIP) are comparable to Houston starter Luis Garcia (4.09 ERA, 1.18 WHIP) and are even better (3.86 ERA, 0.93 ERA) in last 3 starts compared to Garcia (5.82 ERA, 1.82 WHIP), so there’s no reason the Twins can’t be leading halfway through this one.

A’s 1st 5 + 180 vs. Yankees: Oakland starter James Kapriellan has been great to us this summer. He got a no-decision last Saturday vs. the Mariners but got us the win in the 1st 5. Kapriellan should keep it closer and we just need the A’s to scratch out a couple of runs vs. James Tallion (listed as the NY starter through some sites have it TBD), who has given up at least 3 runs in his last 4 starts. If the Yankees start someone else, we’ll take the adjusted money line.

Here are some football picks we put in the last issue of Point Spread Weekly (full column is also posted at VSiN.com).

Friday

Bills + 6 at Panthers: This line opened at 6 even though the Panthers have named Baker Mayfield the winner in the QB battle vs. Sam Darnold – and I don’t think the Bills’ backups have been given enough credit for the whipping they put on the Broncos last Saturday. It’s now up to + 6.5.

Seahawks -3 at Cowboys: I was actually tempted to lay the 3 points with the Seahawks as I was expecting Drew Lock to resume his battle with Geno Smith, but it appears a lot of people agreed with my reasoning as the line was bet up to Seahawks -4.5 when I wrote yesterday’s column and now up to -7.

Saturday

Wyoming + 10 at Illinois: I’m being contrarian as I’ve heard some of my VSiN colleagues on Illinois, but I think this line was too high at 10 and like it even more at + 11 and even better at + 11.5 at South Point..

Vanderbilt-Hawaii Over 55: I made the case in PSW for the Over at 55 and like it even more at Over 53.5 at several books these past two days.

Good luck today (and every day!).

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