Tuley's Takes Today: Tuesday recaps, Wednesday picks in NBA, MLB, NHL 4/20

By Dave Tuley  (VSiN senior reporter) 


Tuesday was spent, as usual, in the Tuley’s Takes home office writing the regular weekly version of this column for Point Spread Weekly and then taking the family truckster in for an oil change.

I wish I had changed one of my picks as NBA zig-zag plays went 2-1 ATS on Tuesday with the Grizzlies rebounding to cover as 7-point favorites in evening its first-round series against the Timberwolves and the Pelicans pulling an outright upset of the Suns later at night, but my Best Bet of the day was the Hawks + 7.5 as they lost and failed to cover in a 10-point loss at the Heat. My m.o. is to pass on the chalk, but I wish I had chosen the Pelicans to be the more live underdog instead of the Hawks, though the Hawks were live most of the game and only trailed by 3 points late before the Heat went on a 9-0 run lead by Jimmy Butler to pull out the cover.

That dropped our record to 42-23-1 ATS (64.6 percent) with our top play of the day the past 66 days, so we can’t complain too much. For those who started following us after we posted here that we were 14-1-1 ATS, we’re still 28-22 ATS (56 percent) since then, so we’re still pretty proud of that.

We’re less proud of how our secondary plays have performed lately as another NHL 1P Over parlay came up short on Tuesday with the Wild-Canadiens and Panthers-Islanders ending 1-0 and 0-0, respectively, after the opening period of each game. We also lost on the Blue Jays + 125 as they lost 2-1 to the Red Sox.

Let’s recap the rest of Tuesday’s betting action and try to get back on the winning track on Wednesday.

Tuesday’s recaps

NBA: Pelicans (+ 9.5) upset Suns 125-114 late Tuesday to even their first-round series at 1-1 as the game went Over 221.5 (note: Phoenix’s Devin Booker left the game in the third quarter with a pulled hamstring after scoring 31 points in the first half, though note that Pelicans led by 3 when he went out of the game). Earlier, Heat (-8) covered in 115-105 win vs. Hawks to take 2-0 series lead and Grizzlies (-7) routed TImberwolves 124-96 to even series 1-1. Both games stayed Under.

More NBA: Faves went 2-1 SU and ATS on Tuesday and now lead 11-3 SU and 9-5 ATS in 1st round. Home teams are also 11-3 SU and 9-5 ATS this round. The zig-zag went 2-1 ATS Tuesday with wins on the Grizzlies and Pelicans but a loss on the Hawks; zig-zag improved to 3-3 ATS so far. Over/Unders back to .500 this round at 7-7 after Unders went 6-0 in the play-in tournament.

MLB: Faves went 12-4 with upsets by the Braves (+ 140 in 3-1 win at Dodgers, who had their 7-game win streak snapped), Angels (+ 142 in 7-2 win at Astros), Rockies (+ 119 in 6-5 win vs. Phillies) and Royals (+ 110 in 4-3 win vs. Twins). Unders went 11-5.

More MLB: Faves are 100-64 SU on the young season (61 percent, still around historical averages) with 2 games closing PK. Home teams went 11-5 Tuesday (28-10 the last 3 days) to increase lead to 91-75 over road teams, which led 65-63 just 3 days ago. Unders lead 92-64-10 (59 percent).

NHL: Faves went just 6-4 Tuesday with upsets by the Red Wings (+ 390 in 4-3 win at Lightning), Senators (+ 205 in 4-3 shootout win at Canucks), Bruins (+ 115 in 3-2 OT win at Blues) and Predators (+ 112 in 3-2 shootout win vs. Flames). Only 3 faves covered -1.5 puck line on the night. Unders went 7-3.

Wednesday’s Takes

Bulls + 10 at Bucks: We cashed with the Bulls getting double-digits in Game 1 and see no reason not to back them again in the Game 2 zig-zag role. Again, we’re not sure if the Bulls can pull the upset to even the season, but they should be able to keep within this big number again. They did it in Game 1 while DeMar Derozan and Zach LaVine didn’t even play that well. We also like the Nets to cover again as 3.5-point road dogs in Game 2, but we’re more confident in the Bulls with that spread being so big.

Braves + 120 at Dodgers: This is our first anti-swagger play of the MLB season as the Dodgers had their 7-game winning streak snapped on Tuesday, and we get a nice juicy price on the Braves. We actually missed out on a mini-anti-swagger against the Giants on Tuesday as they had a 5-game winning streak heading into the day (less than our preferred 6-game threshold) snapped in the first game of a doubleheader at the Mets and proceeded to follow that up with a loss in Game 2.

Kraken + 1.5 + 120: None of our preferred 1P Over teams are in action on Wednesday night (and that’s probably a good thing as they’ve cooled off), but I will make a small play on the puck line here as the Avalanche are in an anti-swagger spot as they had a 9-game winning streak snapped in their last game. I don’t often do these swagger/anti-swagger plays in the NHL with the money line, but with the puck-line option at plus-money, I’ll take it. 

Good luck today (and every day!).



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