Tuley's Takes Today: Tuesday recaps, Wednesday best bets in NBA, NHL (4/6)

By Dave Tuley  (VSiN senior reporter) 

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We knew this was going to happen. If you followed us Tuesday night with our Best Bet on the Grizzlies at + 5.5 (the line given out in this column, though widely available at + 6 and even + 6.5 at Circa Sports and BetMGM here in Vegas), you already know what I’m going to write about.

The Grizzlies were the right side for most of the game against the Jazz and covering late when we were cheering for “anything but overtime!” Of course, the game went to OT (aka “death to underdogs and Unders”). It still looked like we would cover, but the Grizzlies went cold late in the extra session and allowed the Jazz to grab too many offensive rebounds and make enough free throws to win 121-115 to push against the closing line but cover on the earlier line of -5.5.

Personally, I made my biggest bet at Grizzlies + 6 but didn’t see the + 6.5s. So, I pushed that, but lost an earlier bet on + 5.5 plus a parlay at 5.5 with an NHL First-Period Over.

Now, I hope most readers were able to get the push on + 6, but I have to grade it as a loss on my posted pick. The silver lining is that my loyal followers will know that my overall record includes this bad beat/bad push.

We entered the day at 35-15-1 ATS (70 percent) with our top play of the day the past 51 day, so while most of our readers know they’re still at 70 percent with our plays, we have to drop our posted Best Bet record to 35-16-1 ATS (68.6 percent). That’s a bitter pill to swallow.

The good news from Tuesday was that we won our top NHL 1P Over play on Maple Leafs-Panthers 1P Over 1.5 as they were tied 1-1 after the opening 20 minutes. If you’ve followed us for a long time, you know I like to parlay my picks that are going on at the same time, so it worked out great that my recommended parlay plays with the Devils and Blue Jackets in the 4 p.m. PT hour also came in for a nice three-team parlay (I did lose a four-team parlay to the Oilers later Tuesday night, but you can’t win ‘em all).

Anyway, whether you pushed or lost on the Grizzlies play, I hope you at least came close to breaking even on the night thanks to the NHL 1P Over plays.

Let’s recap the rest of Tuesday’s betting results and then hopefully have easier right-side winners on Wednesday.

 

Tuesday’s recaps

NBA: Faves went 9-3 SU, but dogs led 6-5-1 ATS. Three dogs covered in losses, including the Lakers (+ 13 in 121-110 loss at the Suns that eliminated them from playoff contention), Rockets (+ 16.5 in 118-105 loss at Nets) and Pacers (+ 11 in 131-122 loss vs. 76ers). The push was by the Jazz (-6 in 121-115 OT win vs. Grizzlies). The three 3 outright upsets were by the Spurs (+ 9 in 116-97 win at Nuggets, Wizards (+ 12 in 132-114 win at Timberwolves) and Magic (+ 8 in 120-115 win vs. Cavaliers). Overs went 7-4-1 with the push in the Raptors’ 118-108 win vs. the Hawks in game with a betting total of 226 points.

NHL: Faves went 5-4 with Wild-Predators closing pick-’em. The upsets were by the Sabres (+ 240 in 4-2 win vs. Hurricanes), Red Wings (+ 175 in 5-3 win vs. Bruins), Blue Jackets (+ 115 in 4-2 win at Flyers) and Avalanche (-105 in 6-4 win at Penguins). Overs 5-4-1 with the push in Sabres-Hurricanes game that had a betting total of 6 goals.

Wednesday’s Takes

Pistons + 10 vs. Mavericks: We’ve mentioned this several times lately as we’ve been riding the Pistons lately as they’re 17-0-2 ATS in their last 19 games as underdogs. This line was all over the place late Tuesday night with a high of + 12 available at DraftKings in the states where they operate (disclosure, they’re not here in Nevada and I can’t bet there as an employee), but the consensus is closer to 10, so I’m hoping to get that in the morning but will take + 9.5 or 9.

Red Wings + 220 at Jets: This is a swagger play as Detroit snapped its 6-game losing streak on Tuesday night at home vs. the Bruins and now travel to Winnipeg. Now, I posted last week that our swagger/anti-swagger plays work better in the ATS sports of basketball and football and then proceeded to lose two smaller moneyline bets in the NHL, so take this with a grain of salt. Our VSiN colleague Scott Seidenberg made a great point tonight that if you don’t feel comfortable with needing the Red Wings to win SU that you can take the 1.5 goals on the puck line at -110.

Parlay Lightning-Capitals 1P Over 1.5 -135/Red Wings-Jets 1P Over 1.5 -150: We don’t have any recommended straight bet with NHL First-Period Overs on Tuesday as none of the games have a game total of 6.5 goals and none of our top 1P Over teams are in action. If you just gotta have action, we recommend a smaller parlay with these two games that have game totals of 6 shaded to the Over.

Good luck today (and every day!).

 

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