Tuley's Takes Today: Tuesday recaps, Wednesday best bets (1/26)

By Dave Tuley  (VSiN.com senior reporter) 

January 26, 2022 02:36 AM
Providence_Nate_Watson

Tuesday was spent in the Tuley’s Take home office, per usual, helping with Point Spread Weekly, which should be available for VSiN subscribers on Wednesday morning.

Do you ever feel like the gambling gods are toying with you? After sweeping the weekend with our NFL plays in the divisional playoffs, we lost our best bets for the second straight day on Tuesday as the Mavericks (+ 3.5) were blown out by the Warriors. We also split our NHL First-Period Over plays.

But we’re still doing fine overall as our “units” in betting the NFL are much bigger than those we risk on the NBA and NHL. Still, we like to come through for our loyal readers and followers, so we’ll try to rebound on Wednesday. But first, let’s recap the rest of Tuesday’s betting results as it was a pretty wild night in the NBA, NHL and college basketball.

Tuesday’s recaps

NBA: Faves went 7-2 SU on Tuesday but dogs led 5-4 ATS as the Pistons (+ 7 vs. Nuggets), Blazers (+ 3 vs. Timberwolves) and Pelicans (+ 11.5 at 76ers) covered in SU losses. Upsets were by the Clippers (+ 5 vs. Wizards) as they rallied from 35-point first-half deficit and 30 at halftime as well as the Raptors (+ 1.5 vs. Hornets). Overs went 5-4.

CBB: No. 7 UCLA beat No. 3 Arizona 75-59 late Tuesday in a minor upset after the Bruins closed as 3-point home underdogs and + 130 on the money line. In another game between Top 25 teams, No. 24 Illinois beat No. 10 Michigan State 56-55. It was NOT an upset as the Illini closed as a 2-point home fave, though it did not cover.

NHL: Faves went a perfect 8-0 on Tuesday and 5-3 on the -1.5 puck line. Penguins (biggest fave of day at -460 vs. Coyotes) trailed 3-2 in the 3rd period before rallying for 6-3 win. Hurricanes (-200) needed OT to beat the Golden Knights 4-3. Overs went 5-2-1 with the push in the Stars’ 5-1 win at the Devils with a betting total of 6 goals.

Wednesday’s Takes

Providence + 8.5 at Xavier: When we do our nightly recaps, we often point out that lower-ranked teams go off as betting favorites over higher-ranked teams (see Illinois-Michigan State above for latest example), especially when the lower-ranked team is at home. So, we’re not too surprised that No. 21 Xavier (14-4 overall) is a home favorite over No. 17 Providence (16-2 overall), but I do have a problem with oddsmakers making Xavier favored by 8.5 points. The Musketeers are not that superior to the Friars, so I’ll take the points. Providence, led by center Nate Watson, has only been an underdog five times this season (at Wisconsin, at Northwestern, home vs. Texas Tech, at UConn and at DePaul) and won all five outright. Even if the Friars come up short, I can’t see them getting blown off the court.

Flames-Blue Jackets First-Period Over 1.5 -140: These plays have cooled off, but this is my preferred play on Wednesday as the Blue Jackets are the top 1P Over team in the league at 27-12, according to stats from @PSUOtto on Twitter, including 14-3 in their last 17 games. The Flames are a mediocre 18-18, but have gone Over in the first period four times in a row. Combined, they’re 45-30 (60 percent) while 58.3 percent is needed to profit at -140, though again both are trending higher. As of this writing early Wednesday morning, I’m undecided whether I’m going to play this straight or parlay it with the only other 1P Over that I like on the night: Bruins-Avalanche 1P Over 1.5 -145. The Avalanche were formerly the best 1P Over team, but have gone Under in their last four games to fall to 26-14. The Bruins are just 20-19, but are 10-2 in their last 12 to make this playable.

Good luck today (and every day!).

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