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Tuley's Takes Today: Tuesday recaps, Wednesday best bet (10/27)

By Dave Tuley  ( senior reporter) 

October 27, 2021 04:51 AM

As I’ve written before, Tuesdays are mostly spent in the Tuley’s Takes home office writing my regular column for Point Spread Weekly and helping with the rest of the edition.

It was nice to mix in Game 1 of the World Series, but unfortunately our best bet on the Astros’ run line came up short. The Astros never even led as Atlanta’s Jorge Soler hit the third pitch of the game for a homer and the Braves won rather easily. But I comforted myself with a “you can’t win ‘em all” as we’ve had a very profitable run late in the MLB season and playoffs, plus had a very good weekend with our football plays.

Let’s get to the general betting recaps from Tuesday night and then we’ll dive back into the World Series. We’ll add our PSW best bets in Thursday’s edition and give our recommendations on whether to bet ASAP or wait for the weekend.

Tuesday’s recaps

MLB: Braves (+ 115 road underdog) beat the Astros 6-2 on Tuesday night in Game 1 of the World Series. The game stayed just Under the betting total of 8.5 runs despite a couple of long drives that came up short, including Houston’s Yuli Gurriel hitting one off the wall and getting thrown out by Atlanta’s Eddie Rosario as Gurriel did a face-plant sliding into second. Overall in the playoffs (not counting wild-card games), faves still lead 18-12, home teams still lead 19-11 and Overs dipped to 18-12.

NBA: Favorites went 4-1 SU on Tuesday with the lone upset by the Lakers, who closed as 2-point road underdogs in a 125-121 win at the Spurs. Underdogs actually led 3-2 ATS on the night as the Thunders (+ 11 vs. Warriors) and Rockets (+ 11 at Mavericks) both covered in SU losses. Unders led 3-2 with HOU-DAL staying just Under 222.5 by half a point in the Mavericks’ 116-106 victory. 

NHL: Favorites went 5-2 on Tuesday with the only upsets by the Flames (+ 100) in 5-3 win at Devils and the Golden Knights (+) 162 in 3-1 win at Avalanche. Road teams also went 5-2 as road faves were a perfect 3-0. Overs went 4-3 on the night.

Wednesday’s Takes

Astros (+ 145) to win World Series: I expect the Astros’ bats to prevail and for Houston to ultimately win the series despite losing Game 1 and only scoring two runs. We could lay around -112 in Wednesday night’s Game 2 (and I wouldn’t talk you out of it if that’s what you want to do), but I prefer to go ahead and take the plus-money on the Astros to win the series. If they’re going to win the series, they probably need to win Game 2 anyway, but we’re locking in a better price. A lot of the Astros’ key players were on the 2017 championship team that also lost Game 1 to the Dodgers, so I don’t expect them to panic.

Good luck today (and every day!).

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