Tuley's Takes Today: Tuesday recaps, Contest Corner, Wednesday pick (11/17)

By Dave Tuley  (VSiN.com senior reporter) 

November 17, 2021 06:14 AM
Lonzo_Ball

Tuesday was another winning night in the Tuley’s Takes home office as we found the one live underdog in MACtion.

We gave out Eastern Michigan + 5.5 in Tuesday’s column and they were available at %plusssign% 6 most of the day. We trailed early, but the Eagles were covering when they pulled with 21-16 in the third quarter, and then two fourth-quarter FGs gave us the 22-21 outright upset.

The favorites (Toledo and Miami-Ohio) won and covered the other two MACtion games so we made the right call there. I’ve been writing the past few weeks about how evenly matched the MAC is from top to bottom and how it’s great for underdog bettors. In fact, dogs were 7-4 ATS in mid-week (Tuesday through Thursday) games and are now 8-6 ATS.

MAC trends were a hot topic on Twitter and also on sports betting shows I had on in the background. Overs were 8-3 entering the night (and 56-22-2, 71.8 percent, over the past five years). I heard things like “all you have to do is bet all MAC Overs and you’ll go 2-1.”

Now, I include a lot of betting stats in my nightly recaps, but I always try to warn readers that I’m not necessarily mentioning this for people to bet the hot trends (though if you’re on them early enough, it can be profitable). I also post them with the unstated advice that all trends will revert eventually. Nothing lasts forever and one of my favorite old gambling adages (that this old sports betting writer might have stated first) is that “once you hear about a betting trend, it’s probably bound to reverse.” We see it all the time (and if you’ve done this long enough, I’m sure you’ll admit that there’s been tons of times when you jump on a trendy topic only to see it dry up. This is because the oddsmakers also know the same trends that we do (and usually ahead of the public) and can adjust their odds to help end a streak.

So, was it any surprise that Overs went 1-2 on Tuesday after all that talk about people blindly betting Overs.

Now, I was considering making Wednesday’s best bet on the two Unders in MACtion, however, it appears some sharp bettors have already beaten me to the punch as the Under in the Central Michigan-Ball State game has been bet down from 62.2 to 59 while the Under in the Northern Illinois-Buffalo game has been bet down from 63.5 to 60 (I might still bet both, or perhaps parlay both Unders in case I’m write; you decide for yourself).

Instead, I’ll go to the NBA for my best bet. But first, let’s recap the rest of Tuesday’s betting action, including a Contest Corner update on the leaderboards at Circa and the Westgate.

Tuesday’s recaps

CFB: MACtion favorites went 2-1 SU and ATS Tuesday with the upset by Eastern Michigan (+ 6) beating Western Michigan 22-21. Unders went 2-1 after mid-week MAC Overs had been 8-3 this season entering the week. 

NBA: Faves went 2-1 SU and ATS with the upset by the Warriors (+ 2.5 in 117-99 win at the Nets). The Jazz (-11.5 in 120-85 rout of 76ers) and Clippers (-7.5 in 106-92 win vs. Spurs) covered as faves. Unders went 3-0 on Tuesday to go back over 60 percent at 127-84-2 (60.2 percent). 

CBB: Tuesday night's biggest upset was Seton Hall (+ 8.5, + 310 on the money line) knocking off No. 4 Michigan 67-65. The only other upset of a Top 25 team was BYU (+ 4.5, + 170 ML) routing No. 12 Oregon 81-49 . 

 

NHL: Faves/dogs split 5-5 with the Oilers-Jets game closing pick-'em. Upsets were by the Sabres (+ 205 at Penguins), Flyers (+ 100 vs. Flames), Sharks (+ 159 at Wild), Coyotes (+ 260 at Blues) and Ducks (+ 4105 vs. Capitals). Unders went 7-3-1 with the push in the Hurricanes-Golden Knights (6) game.

Contest Corner

Circa Sports Million co-leaders JJarvis117 and Price Check-3 held onto their tie for 1st place after both going 4-1 in Week 10 to improve to 38-12 (76 percent) overall. There were 155 entrants that went a perfect 5-0 in NFL Week 10 to start the "3rd Quarter" of the contest.

SuperContest has a new leader in PACKDG at 35-15 (70 percent). THE PROGNASTICATOR, NOMSNAIGANSKK and WOLFGANG are all half a point back in 2nd at 34-15-1 (wins are worth 1 point, pushes worth 0.5). The leader of SuperContest Gold (the $5,000 winner-take-all version of the SC) is THE PROGNASTICATOR 2 at 34-15-1 (69.4 percent).

Wednesday’s Take

Chicago Bulls + 2.5 at Portland Blazers: This time of year has long been the dreaded “Circus Trip” for the Bulls (and Blackhawks) and they would get kicked out of Chicago Stadium (and then United Center) when the Ringling Brothers and Barnum and Bailey Circus came to town for two weeks. The Bulls would usually go on West Coast trips and struggle with the long time away from home. Well, the circus is no more, but the Bulls (10-4 SU and ATS) are out West but doing quite well despite dropping the first game of the road trip to the Warriors but bouncing back to beat both the Clippers and Lakers in L.A. Now, on Wednesday, they’re short dogs in Portland, which is 7-8 SU and 6-9 ATS. Portland is still dangerous with Damian Lillard and CJ McCollum, but Zach LaVine, DeMar DeRozan and Lonzo Ball are really balling for the Bulls. They were favored against the Lakers and I think they should be favored here, so I’ll take as many points as they’ll give us.

Good luck today (and every day!).

 

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