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Tuley's Takes Today: Tuesday recaps, Contest Corner, Wednesday pick (11/10)

By Dave Tuley  ( senior reporter) 

November 10, 2021 05:20 AM

Tuesday was a wild day in the Tuley’s Takes home office. In addition to writing my regular “Tuley’s Takes” column for Point Spread Weekly in which I give my take on every NFL game on the card, I was also trying to keep up with all the action on the first day of the college basketball season.

Now, I don’t get too involved with betting CBB until after the football season is over (though I did jump on New Mexico State -5 that was given out by Mitch Moss on “Follow the Money”), but I certainly follow it in my reporter’s role. I was looking over the sides and totals for the 70 games on the betting board and my eyes were glazing over.

When the day ended, I posted an announcement on my Twitter account @ViewFromVegas: “With the start of #CBB season tonight, I just want to say that I'm not going to do nightly recaps (faves/dogs, home/road, Over/Unders) like I do with other sports, so I won't say every night that underdogs went 38-30-2 ATS (55.9 percent) and Unders went 49-21 (70 percent) like tonight. But I will point out major upsets and betting results of marquee games …”

After all, part of the main reason I do those nightly updates on faves/dogs and Over/Unders is to give a sense of how bettors are doing against the books in general as well as trying to keep on top of emerging trends. With so many games in college basketball on a daily basis, those overall figures just aren’t as important. Instead, I’ll mostly be posting when there are major upsets, especially of ranked teams, and marquee games, especially when nationally televised as those games attract a lot of betting interest.

Besides, it’s interesting to note that while underdogs and Unders were the way to go over the vast majority of games, the favorite and Over combo hit in the Kansas-Michigan State and Duke-Kentucky games on ESPN.

As for my best bet of the day, I picked Buffalo as what I believed was the most likely underdog to cover in MACtion, but ended up with the only dog that didn’t cover in the night’s three games!

So, let’s get to the recaps of Tuesday’s action. I’ve also got the winners of the in-season prizes won in the Circa Sports Million and Westgate SuperContest in “Contest Corner” before looking for a best bet on Wednesday.

Tuesday’s recaps

CBB: No. 9 Duke (-2.5) covered in 79-71 win over No. 10 Kentucky and No. 3 Kansas (-4.5) covered in 87-74 win over Michigan State in the State Farm Champions Classic at Madison Square Garden. Both games Went Over their betting totals. No. 25 Virginia (-15.5) was the only ranked team to lose outright, falling 66-58 to Navy (+ 750 money line). No. Ohio State (-16.5) needed a basket with 0.4 seconds left to beat Akron 67-66.

CFB: Faves went 2-1 SU in Tuesday's MACtion, but dogs led 2-1 ATS. Ohio (+ 6, + 190 ML) upset Eastern Michigan 34-26 while Akron (+ 26) covered in a 45-40 loss at Western Michigan. Miami-Ohio (-7) was the only chalk to cover in a 45-18 rout vs. Buffalo. Overs went 2-1. 

NBA: Favorites went 3-0 SU and ATS on a short Tuesday slate (mostly stepping aside for CBB opening night) as the Bucks (-7 at 76ers), Jazz (-8.5 vs. Hawks) and Clippers (-3 vs. Blazers) all covered as chalk. Overs went 2-1 on the night, but Unders still lead 96-60-1 (61.5 percent) on the young season .

NHL: Underdogs dominated at 8-2 on Tuesday with the biggest upsets by the Sharks (+ 190 in a 4-1 win at the Flames) and the Red Wings (+ 150 in a 4-2 win vs. the Oilers). The only faves to win were the Bruins (-300 vs. Senators) and the Golden Knights (-120 vs. Kraken). Unders also went 8-2 on the night . 

Contest Corner

Circa Sports Million III wrapped up its “2nd Quarter” in-season contest with Rolfsbudo7 going 21-3-1 to win the $171,750 prize for the best record in NFL Weeks 5-9. KWPISG went 20-4-1 to claim the $50,000 second-place prize and BuckeyeSportsGroup went 20-5 to take the $25,000 third-place prize. In addition, KING DUBB went 4-21 to win the $25,000 last-place Booby Prize for the worst record of the quarter.

The Westgate SuperContest’s 3-week mini-contest on NFL Weeks 7-9 ended in a four-way tie with FRIDAY ALAN, THE PROGNASTICATOR, PICKSWISE and DANIEL WORMALD each going 13-2 and winning $26,250 apiece as they split the $75,000 first-place prize, $25,000 second-place prize and $5,000 third-place prize.

Reminder: the SuperContest Reboot, a $500 version that runs in NFL Weeks 10-18, starts this week and has an entry deadline of 3 p.m. PT Saturday at the Westgate SuperBook. You must register in person just like the regular SuperContest and proxies are allowed as long as the contestant authorizes them and they both appear in person. The contest uses the same lines as the SC and SC Gold and has a separate pool. Deadline for weekly submissions are also the same as the other contests at 11:59 p.m. PT Saturdays (9 p.m. PT on the mobile app).

Wednesday’s Take

Lakers + 4.5 vs. Heat: Instead of college b-ball (or college football as I don’t like any of the three MACtion dogs on Wednesday night), let’s turn to the Association. The Lakers are scuffling to start the season at 6-5, and for betting purposes they’re even worse at 3-8 ATS. At home, they’re 5-3 but a woeful 2-6 ATS. However, all but one of those home games was as a favorite, yet we get them as 4.5-point home dogs against the Miami Heat, who are 7-3 and tied atop the Eastern Conference standings and also 7-3 ATS. The Lakers are without LeBron James, but the Heat are also battling injuries. Miami’s Bam Adebayo is listed as questionable with a bruised knee. If he's unable to go or limited, that could open it up for the Lakers’ Anthony Davis to dominate on both ends of the floor. But even if he’s fine, the Lakers still have enough with Russell Westbrook and Carmelo Anthony. Besides, the biggest worry when backing the Lakers is that they play down to the level of their competition, but that shouldn't be an issue here.

Good luck today (and every day!).

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